1 For a Population Statistical Register Characteristics and Potentials for the Official Statistics Central department for administrative data and archives and statistical registers Q8 European conference on quality in official statistics Rome 9 – 11 luglio 2008 Roberta Vivio, Valentina Talucci, Grazia Petraccone

2 To widen the available informative basis, in addition to the traditional surveys  To reduce the statistical “burden” on households, enterprises and institutions  To reduce the costs of the public statistics European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Main objectives for using administrative sources in the statistics: Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

3 All national statistical institutes have a duty to produce official statistics with the highest possible quality with reference to: Relevance and completeness Timeliness and punctuality Accuracy Comparability and clarity Cost efficiency Low response burden The standard indicators of quality in Istat are divided into process and product. Among those process component quality is the Accuracy in terms of: coverage coding European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Quality Standard Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

4 Hence, in this context, Istat proposes its project to construct: A statistical register on persons living in Italy and Specialised archives linked with this register European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

5 Persons register Education and training Work Welfare Health Dwellings Foreigners European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

6 The project’s phases involve to: Select the primary input source= to select the best list for the register reconnaissance study on existing archives control on their quality and informative potentials Plan the register: study of the construction process study of the actions for identifying, measuring and correcting any error Experiment the application fields of the register together with other archives European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

7 The “Tax authorities individual register” part of the Tax Informative System realized for the strategic objectives of the Ministry of Finance created and managed by the Tax Agency for the Ministry of Finance European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Base input source Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

8 Characteristics of the tax register 1) Population target: Tax population (that is bigger than Resident Population = Population of interest) 2) Statistical unit: each person with a fiscal code (it’s the identification and linkage key) 3) Territorial detail: address 4) Coverage: all Italian municipalities 5) Administrative and statistical link between the tax register and legally resident population register European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

9 Population target and Statistical Unit The TAX POPULATION of a municipality is made up of Italian and/or foreign persons - Legally resident in the municipality; - Not legally resident in the municipality, but having a fiscal code based on actions they carry out that involve the obligation to use such code (taxpayers) In other words: DOES NOT include persons NON-resident and fiscally NON-domiciled European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

10 Link with the legally resident population register Populations identifiable in the Tax Population “ALIGNED” POPULATION: the population whose data held in the tax register coincide with those held in the legally resident population register “ALIGNED” POPULATION Statistical register on persons is primary input of European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

11 The quality test The sample 3.8 millions of records 8 Municipalities 12 variables: Fiscal code Name, surname Sex Date of birth Municipality of birth (cadastral code) Fiscal address: Municipality (cadastral code) Address Legally residence: (ONLY IF different from the tax domicile) Municipality (cadastral code) Address Source of the fiscal code, tax domicile, Legally residence European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

12 THE TEST: quality assessments on macro data (coverage and matching errors in relation to the objective’s population, non-responses) Formal and substantial controls; *** Statistical indicators: Simple distance index Simple distance index (%) Index of dissimilarity (simple and relative) Index of dissimilarity (simple and relaive for ordered characters) Coefficient of correlation **** Demographic indicators: Mean Age (of the population) Birth Rate Sex Ratio Dependency Ratio Etc. European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

13 Business register – physical persons Archive of Retired Persons Tax archive on employee Birth registration Tax register LINK TEST ON MICRO-DATA confirms integrates qualifies the units eligible for the register European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

14 SOME RESULTS European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

15 European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

16 European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

17 Fields of application: examples of linkage of the primary archive with some specialized archives European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

18 Tax register & Archives of work and pension incomes Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

19 Tax register & Archives of work and pension incomes European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

20 Tax register & Archive of retired persons Resident retired persons in the I° Quarter of Rome by age and number of pensions Year 2004 European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

21 Some possible application for the Population Register For sample surveys: direct sampling of persons For the archives: Statistical system on persons based on the interaction of several specialized registries on one base register For the census: Constitution of auxiliary lists (Italians and foreigners) European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

22 In addition…. Check and/or integration of alphabetical, numerical and alphanumeric items of other surveys e.g.: “Place of birth” in the Census “Municipality of residence” in the register of retired persons ………………………. ……………………… European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

23 Conclusions The statistical population register is a tool that will help to improve the official statistics on the population. To have the address allows to develop analisys at very detailed territorial reference The important information from the tax register becomes even more important when considering that to have the fiscal code represents also the first step towards a complex informative system up until now only imagined. European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics Roma, 9-11 Luglio 2008

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25 Coverage errors Children in Rome

26 Correction strategy: Integration with the micro-data from the archive “Birth registration” Istat Aligned population Population Total Posas Coupling Total Pop. Birth registrations Resident population per year of birth. Municipality of Rome. Years Various sources. Tax Agency

27 The First Statistical Population register in Italy is considered at the moment to be among the most innovative ones in Istat: in particular it’s a product innovation as it will become the First National register of Persons to be available to the Institute. Up until now, the Institute could count only on non-individual register information and more than 8 thousand municipalities. In addition, it is also a process innovation: to construct it, a source that despite being originally created for tax administrative sources, will indeed be used for demographic purposes.

28 Populations identifiable with the tax Population AGGREGATES “Aligned” population Population not yet “aligned” Population that cannot be “aligned” Total abcT Tax populationXXXT=a+b+c Resident population XX  T=a+b