Actuaries in Financial Markets (Session C2) CAS Annual Meeting November 2007 Chicago, IL Scott J. Swanay, FCAS Swanay Sports FantasyBaseballSherpa.com

Fantasy Sports – Overview Group of fans form/join a fantasy league Before season starts league participants pick real-life players for their fantasy team During season fantasy teams accumulate points based on how their players perform in real life At end of season fantasy team with most points wins

Fantasy Sports Types of Games Rotisserie (e.g. – Baseball, Basketball) Points-based (e.g. – Football) Salary Cap (All sports)

Rotisserie Games Customer provides league-specific inputs Apply the Sherpa’s algorithm Customer receives player rankings

Customer’s Inputs Eligible players #Teams (in Customer’s league) Scoring categories Roster requirements

The Sherpa’s Algorithm Project stats for upcoming season Translate projected stats into point totals by category Factor in position scarcity (supply & demand)

Player Rankings Overall ranking for all players Rankings of players at each position Suggested player dollar values for auction leagues

Points-based Games Unlike Rotisserie games, scores in individual categories don’t matter Only objective is to accumulate the most points overall Most commonly associated with fantasy football, but can be used in other sports too

Salary Cap Games Each team starts season with same amount of dollars to spend on players Start by assembling most efficient lineup (highest points per dollar at each position) Use marginal analysis to maximize points within salary cap constraint

Fantasy Football Tip The players that get your fantasy football team to the playoffs are not necessarily the players who will help you win your league’s championship – always pay attention to matchups, especially during playoff weeks!

Fantasy Football Tip (Cont) Think of fantasy football season as having two distinct stages Regular season (usually NFL Weeks 1-13) Playoffs (usually NFL Weeks 14-16)

3 Offenses with Favorable Schedules NFL Weeks Cleveland NYJ, vs Cin) Cincinnati (vs SF, vs Cle) Tennessee (vs vs NYJ)

7 Offenses with Unfavorable Schedules NFL Weeks Seattle (vs Car, vs Bal) Miami Buf, vs NE) Philadelphia (vs NO) Houston (vs TB, vs Ind) New York Jets (vs Ten) New Orleans Atl, vs Ari, vs Phi) Oakland GB, vs Jax)

4 Defenses with Favorable Schedules NFL Weeks Tennessee (vs KC, vs NYJ) Minnesota SF, vs Chi, vs Was) Seattle (vs Car, vs Bal) Green Bay (vs Chi)

4 Defenses with Unfavorable Schedules NFL Weeks St. Louis Cin, vs GB, vs Pit) Oakland GB, vs Jax) NY Jets (vs Ten) Houston (vs TB, vs Ind)

Contact Info Fantasy Baseball Sherpa Scott J. Swanay, FCAS President & Chief Sherpa (212)