Eastern Region Activities Fred McMullen Sub-Regional Aviation Workshop WFO Columbia, SC 26 February 2009 Fred McMullen Sub-Regional Aviation Workshop WFO Columbia, SC 26 February 2009

Measuring Weather / Traffic Impact Traffic Demand National Airspace System (NAS) ATM, Airline Response Strategies Operational Outcomes Local Airport Weather En-route Convective Weather Capacity, Safety constraints The Weather Index expresses severity of weather impact on the NAS, weighted by air transportation service demands

WITI is a weighted sum of three components: Weather Impacted Traffic Index (WITI) Quantifies “the hand the NAS was dealt today” – En-route Component reflecting impact of convective weather on routes to/from major airports – Terminal Component for major airports: local weather impact – Queuing Delay Component for same airports reflecting excess traffic demand vs. capacity Used by the FAA on a regular basis: Measure system performance in an objective manner Compare different seasons’ Wx/traffic impact with outcomes (e.g. delays) Weather is weighted by traffic

WITI-FA (“Forecast Accuracy”) En-route weather E-WITI uses actual convective Wx data (NCWD) E-WITI-FA uses convective forecast data, (CCFP) Both use the same scheduled traffic on major flows Convective forecast data is converted to “quasi-NCWD” format (probability or intensity of Wx converted to % max NCWD score for hexagonal grid cells) Terminal weather T-WITI uses actual surface Wx data (METARs) T-WITI-FA uses forecast data (TAFs) Both use the same scheduled traffic at major airports TAF converted to quasi-METAR form, “rolling look-ahead” stream

NCWD CCFP converted to Quasi-NCWD “Delta Wx” Wx itself was overforecast “Delta Weather” vs. “Delta Weather Impact” (Delta WITI)

Large areas covered by this CCFP see very little traffic “Delta Weather” vs. “Delta Weather Impact” (Delta WITI)

E-WITI (NCWD) WITI-FA (CCFP converted to Quasi-NCWD) “Delta WITI” Wx impact on traffic was underforecast “Delta Weather” vs. “Delta Weather Impact” (Delta WITI)

Terminal WITI Based on Forecast Wx T-WITI-FA Apply the methodology developed for en-route convective weather (E-WITI-FA) to terminal weather First, compute T-WITI using METARs Then, compute T-WITI-FA using TAFs for same airports FTUS43 KLOT KORD Z KT P6SM BKN250 FM KT P6SM BKN250 FM KT P6SM VCTS BKN035CB FM G18KT P6SM BKN040 FM KT P6SM FEW050=

9 WITI In Operations Monday, December 15, 2008 IAH: Low ceilings, GDP of 36 According to WITI model for ceilings above 700 Ft, AAR of about 82 could have been sustained (according to FAA OIS, IAH AAR for IMC varies from about 72 to 80 depending on ceilings) IAH METAR and TAF data

10 WITI In Operations Monday, December 15, 2008 LGA: Wind, GDP of Actual wind was generally below 15 Kt, less than forecast LGA METAR and TAF data

WITI In Operations Onset of clouds AOB 2300ft happened earlier than forecast

AvnFPS Operational Impact Capability

Assessing Forecast Impact on Operations Part of QC’ing TAFs before dissemination –Default checks on TAFs are from NWSI Fuel-Alternate –vsby < 3 miles or ceilings < 2000 feet LIFR Condition –vsby < 1 mile or ceilings < 500 feet More sophisticated checks are possible and can be tailored to specific airports having unique operational constraints Part of QC’ing TAFs before dissemination –Default checks on TAFs are from NWSI Fuel-Alternate –vsby < 3 miles or ceilings < 2000 feet LIFR Condition –vsby < 1 mile or ceilings < 500 feet More sophisticated checks are possible and can be tailored to specific airports having unique operational constraints

TAF Impact Writing Elements of the TAF forecast groups can be examined and used in expression attribute of impact rules –Presence of thunderstorms (ts) [True/False] –Visibility (vsby) [statue miles] –Ceiling Height (cig) [feet] –Wind (wind.shift,wind.cross,wind.runway) [knots] ‘expr’ is a Python expression that evaluates either True or False. Elements of the TAF forecast groups can be examined and used in expression attribute of impact rules –Presence of thunderstorms (ts) [True/False] –Visibility (vsby) [statue miles] –Ceiling Height (cig) [feet] –Wind (wind.shift,wind.cross,wind.runway) [knots] ‘expr’ is a Python expression that evaluates either True or False.

TAF Impact Writing A forecast of strong crosswinds at a major hub can cause ground delays. Use BOS as an example. –Need runway orientations to calculate wind components orthogonal and parallel to runway(s) A forecast of strong crosswinds at a major hub can cause ground delays. Use BOS as an example. –Need runway orientations to calculate wind components orthogonal and parallel to runway(s) Runway 4R/22L referenced as [0] Runway 9/27 referenced as [1] Runway 15R/33L referenced as [2]

TAF Impact Writing wind[n].cross = crosswind for runway #n wind[n].runway = parallel component to runway #n wind[n].shift = tail-to-head or head-to-tailwind change from last forecast group (T or F) Edit /awips/adapt/avnfps/etc/tafs/KBOS/impact.cfg wind[n].cross = crosswind for runway #n wind[n].runway = parallel component to runway #n wind[n].shift = tail-to-head or head-to-tailwind change from last forecast group (T or F) Edit /awips/adapt/avnfps/etc/tafs/KBOS/impact.cfg [conditions] items=cond_1,cond_2,cond_3,cond_4 : [cond_3] tag=wshft level=2 text=significant windshift on 15R/33L expr=wind[2].shift and wind[2].runway>15 [cond_4] tag=xw level=3 text=significant crosswind on 15R/33L expr=wind[2].cross>15

Monitoring Customization See AvnFPS User’s Guide Appendix B for more details AvnFPS Rule Editor allows customized rules of many sources –METARs –Lightning –LLWS –CCFP

TAF Editor Tools Dropping new modules into the /toolpy directory will cause it to show up in the TAF Editor More details on writing TAF Editor tools can be found in Appendix F of the AvnFPS User’s Guide

Enhanced Services Routine 3 hour amendments (at least the OEP Airports) CONSISTENCY between products Coordinate with CWSUs 06Z and 12Z TAFs are very important Timing of convection is key in the 06Z and 12Z TAFs Be situationally aware of the CCFP product Routine 3 hour amendments (at least the OEP Airports) CONSISTENCY between products Coordinate with CWSUs 06Z and 12Z TAFs are very important Timing of convection is key in the 06Z and 12Z TAFs Be situationally aware of the CCFP product

Best Practices Focus on the first six hours of the forecast Lean toward GFS-LAMP when IFR conditions are occurring An average of the guidance is often a good forecast. Check Arrival Fix Focus on the first six hours of the forecast Lean toward GFS-LAMP when IFR conditions are occurring An average of the guidance is often a good forecast. Check Arrival Fix

Corridor Integrated Weather System Real-time Weather Product Generator TDWR NEXRAD Canadian LLWASASOS Models (e.g., RUC) Weather Radars Surface Weather Pilots Web-based Tools Dedicated Displays Decision Support Tools Aircraft Lightning Satellites Provides integrated weather picture to FAA and Airline personnel Accurate 2-hour convective weather forecast, echo top information 91 Dedicated displays, > 60 Web users 24/7 Availability Provides integrated weather picture to FAA and Airline personnel Accurate 2-hour convective weather forecast, echo top information 91 Dedicated displays, > 60 Web users 24/7 Availability

Strategic Planning Air Traffic Management (ATM) Planning –‘Tactical’ Planning (0-2hr) –‘Strategic’ Planning (2-6hr) 5 hr 2 hr 3 hr Median Flight Time ~ 2 hr

Web Site Access to CIWS Products Pre-June 2008 Legacy Domain Post-June 2008 CONUS Domain

Response to User Requests All products are accessible from a single window Coverage is extended to the entire continental US All products loop Colors for the Forecast and Verification Contours and the Growth and Decay Trends products are added to the legend Updated loop controls provide greater flexibility, including ability to toggle through images

Winter Mode

Winter Precipitation Product Provides additional detail within Level 1 precipitation, which may contain light (Level 1a), moderate (Level 1b), or heavy (Level lc) snow or mixed precipitation Precipitation phase is represented in greens (rain), pinks (mixed), and blues (snow) Loops from -120 min to present in user-selectable increments Filter Options Product Status Buttons

Winter Precip Forecast Product Loops available from 5 min to 120 min in 5-min increments –Loop interval displayed on Website is user-selectable Spatial resolution is a function of zoom: ~4 nmi (8 km) to ~0.5 nmi (1 km) Update rate: 5 min Filter forecast levels Product Status Buttons

Convective Mode

Growth and Decay

Forecast Contours

CIWS Forecast

WFO Operational Uses 0-2 hour timing for TAFs and AWWs KBOS Z KT P6SM FEW250 FM KT P6SM BKN250 FM KT P6SM SCT050 FM KT P6SM VCTS BKN050CB FM KT P6SM SCT050= KBOS Z G19KT P6SM VCSH SCT060 FM KT P6SM SCT050 FM KT P6SM SCT050= 12Z TAF 18Z TAF

AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1224 PM EDT TUE SEP AIRPORT WEATHER WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING UNTIL 130 PM… A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS LOGAN AIRPORT AROUND 1 PM. WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AIRPORT BEFORE 130 PM. 1625z CIWS Forecast Contours

WFO Operational Use Enhanced Short Term Forecasting 6 Hour PoP Forecast2 Hour PoP Forecast Using CIWS

Wiki David L. Beachler WFO-CTP Fred McMullen ERH-RAM David L. Beachler WFO-CTP Fred McMullen ERH-RAM

What is it and why… Wiki -> Wikipedia –Housed on a centralized server, and maintained by anyone wishing to participate –Information provides background to local program areas, and a means to share information with fewer traffic AVN page serves as a clearinghouse: –Organized format, provides resources in a timely fashion (Service Backup…TAFs) Runway charts, approach diagrams, etc… will show example from WFO-CTP later Wiki -> Wikipedia –Housed on a centralized server, and maintained by anyone wishing to participate –Information provides background to local program areas, and a means to share information with fewer traffic AVN page serves as a clearinghouse: –Organized format, provides resources in a timely fashion (Service Backup…TAFs) Runway charts, approach diagrams, etc… will show example from WFO-CTP later

ERH-MSD Aviation Wiki Eastern Region (ER) RAM can provide information to Aviation Focal Points (AFPs) AFPs have access to best practices from other ER WFOs –Outside box thinking Serve as a resource for WFOs conducting service backup Eastern Region (ER) RAM can provide information to Aviation Focal Points (AFPs) AFPs have access to best practices from other ER WFOs –Outside box thinking Serve as a resource for WFOs conducting service backup

So where do we start… ERH now maintains ER-Wiki server ( username and password) ERH now maintains ER-Wiki server ( username and password)

The look…

ERH-MSD Main Page…

ERH-Aviation page…

Collaborative Tools…

AVN- CTP…

Standardized Template… WFO-AFPs will have their own section: –This will be uniform amongst all offices in the structure TAF sites/Airport Specific Info/Amendment Criteria (SSTAC) ER Verification Monthly Scores

Standardized Template (draft)…

Training… Previously mentioned, no IT background needed The ER-AVN Wiki page continues to evolve –Improvements as more provide feedback Standardized nomenclature for AVN items –This will provide a means to remain efficient –Prevent future issues with overlaps This is common amongst time sensitive documents that can be uploaded

Contact Info… David L. Beachler WFO-CTP AFP Fred McMullen ERH-RAM