2006 Commercial GSO Forecast Introduction Lisa Hague COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group October 26, 2005.

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Presentation transcript:

2006 Commercial GSO Forecast Introduction Lisa Hague COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group October 26, 2005

COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 10/26/ GSO Forecast Background Forecast predicts commercial addressable GSO satellite and launch vehicle demand over 10-year horizon –Broken down into four satellite mass categories Produced annually by COMSTAC since 1993 Methodology is consistent over time, with ongoing enhancements as needed Incorporates inputs from global space transportation and satellite industry –Comprehensive inputs from satellite and launch vehicle manufacturers –Individual inputs from satellite operators

COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 10/26/ Tecolote Research, Inc FAA/AST Technology & Innovation WG Members Industry Experts From Launch Vehicle and Satellite Manufacturers, USG Civil Servants and Consultants

COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 10/26/ Technology & Innovation WG Members Dr. Alexander Liang (WG Chair) - Aerospace Corporation Lisa Hague (Forecast Chair) - The Boeing Company I-Shih Chang - Aerospace Corporation Ethan Haase - Lockheed Martin/International Launch Services Bernard Hawkins- Aerospace Corporation William Hayes - Space Systems Loral Joe Hopkins - Industry expert Doug Howe - The Boeing Company Michael Izzo - Industry expert David Keslow - Orbital Sciences Corporation Debra Facktor Lepore - Kistler Aerospace Corporation Jennifer Miceli - Tecolote Research, Inc Chris O’Connell - Sea Launch, Inc Dave Pollock - Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne John Richards - ATK Kathy Shockey - Space Systems Loral John Sloan - FAA AST William Tosney - Aerospace Corp

COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 10/26/ COMSTAC GSO Forecast Schedule Data Analysis & Evaluation Reporting Data Collection Kick-off Telecon Operator and International Inputs Due Working Face-to-Face Meeting Telecon COMSTAC Spring 06 Meeting Review data responses Near-term forecast Long-term forecast Final report format Report Draft #1 COMSTAC Approval Report to COMSTAC members for review Report Final Draft FAA Issues Data Requests Meetings Comprehensive Inputs Due OctoberNovemberDecemberJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMay Telecon COMSTAC Fall 05 Meeting

COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 10/26/ Forecast Methodology Request 10-year projection of GSO satellites launched from satellite operators, manufacturers, and launch service providers worldwide –Individual demand requirements from operators –Comprehensive market inputs from satellite and launch manufacturers Develop Long-Term (last 7 years) Forecast –Average of comprehensive domestic forecasts by mass categories Develop Near-Term (1 st 3 years) Mission Model –“Bottom-up” forecast of launch opportunities by name –WG consensus based on most recent information & individual operator inputs as available –Timing and likelihood of new opportunities agreed upon by panel Only “addressable” commercial GSO satellites included –Addressable satellites are defined as those open for internationally competitive launch service procurement

COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 10/26/ Results from 2005 Forecast: Satellite Demand by Mass 2005 Forecast Indicated Continued Trend In Growth of Average Satellite Mass

COMSTAC Technology & Innovation Working Group 10/26/ Interested in Joining Tech & Innovation WG? Contact: Lisa Hague Boeing Launch Services or- Dr. Alex Liang Aerospace Corp Forecast Report: