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INITIAL CONDITION: 31 st May 2015 Extended range prediction during 2015 season Extended range prediction during 2015 season

Real-time forecast based on 31 st May 2015 initial condition  This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS (T126 & T382) and GFSbc (T126 & T382) (each 11 members).

Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa (by MME)

Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean sea level pressure (by MME)

Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature (by MME)

Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature Anomaly (by MME)

Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)

Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa (by MME)

Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)

Extended EOF analysis is carried out similar to Wheeler and Hendon 2004 using standardized rainfall anomalies up to lag -15 days, averaged between 60-95E for the latitudes -12 to 30. The rainfall anomalies for the lag days are appended side by side to create the extended data matrix. The EOF analysis is carried out using IMD-TRMM merged data from The real time data for 2013 is projected onto the EOFs created from the 14 years of past data. The amplitude of EOF1 and EOF2 (PC1 and PC2 ) are plotted in a PC1/PC2 phase space similar to Wheeler Hendon 2004 to get an idea of the evolution of ISO and its strength. Computation of MISO (Ref: Suhas et al. 2012, Sahai et al. 2013) Phase1: Peninsular India; Phase2: Central India; Phase3: Central India; Phase4: North India Phase5: Foothills Phase6: South Indian Ocean; Phase7: Indian Ocean; Phase8: Southern tip

MISO monitoring and forecast for next 25 days

 Onset of Monsoon over Kerala is likely to take place within one or two days in the influence of a low pressure system (LPS) over southern tip of peninsula.  After onset the LPS is likely to intensify and move towards Oman coast. This system may dissipate around 11 th June and till then the monsoon activity will be weaker than normal over India.  It is likely that by 17 th June the offshore trough along the west coast will be established and thereafter monsoon trough will start establishing over the Gangetic plains.  The rainfall will be mainly confined to North-East and southern peninsula for the next days.  Large-scale MISO also indicates north-ward propagation of convection from southern ocean to peninsula in next 15 days and weakening thereafter.  Convection associated with MJO is expected to move eastward to the Indian ocean till 12 th June, however further movement to the maritime continent is not favoured due to El Nino induced strong convection towards central Pacific. Key points from the present forecast