5 June 2005 Strategic Plan 2001 Challenges identified for NCAR Intellectual Human resource development and education Application of science to societal needs Strategic Plan 2005 Science-Society Interactions “Societal needs of the next half-century” Global population Technological development and effects on environment Global climate change and other environmental changes, including ‘surprises’

5 June 2005 Strategic Plan 2005 Science-Society Interactions Strategic Plan 2001 Activities:  Annual climate change science/decision-maker meeting  Policy-relevant research  Create and distribute scientific information in response to societal needs  Foster dialogues on atmospheric issues with interested publics  Public outreach: summary and explanation of research activities & results, and their linkage-relevance to societal concerns & national needs Objectives:  Develop science for national/international assessments of climate variability and change, ozone depletion, etc.  Improve understanding of the science-practice interface  Develop collaborative ties to other societal impacts centers and relevant stakeholder groups Activities:  Annual meeting on climate change science/decision-making  Policy-relevant research  Create and distribute scientific information in response to societal needs  Foster dialogues on atmospheric issues with interested publics  Public outreach: summary and explanation of research activities & results, and their linkage-relevance to societal concerns & national needs

5 June 2005 Strategic Plan 2001 to support, enhance, and extend the capabilities of the university community, nationally and internationally; to understand the behavior of the atmospheric and related systems and the global environment; and to foster the transfer of knowledge and technology for the betterment of life on Earth. NCAR’s Mission Strategic Plan 2005 Science-Society Interactions

5 June 2005 Challenges Related to the Atmosphere Climate Change Imposes Increased Risks to Environment (Biosphere) and Society NCAR does a tremendous job in its intellectual and technological contributions to understanding climate and weather There needs to be a stronger link to where the science is needed most: Society and Ecosystems Biosphere – what we’re really interested in – environmental changes by themselves are not the problem, it’s what those environmental changes mean for life

5 June 2005 Climate Change

5 June 2005 TWO Major Challenges Linking climate change and the biosphere Linking society and science "I say the debate is over. We know the science, we see the threat and we know the time for action is now." -- A. Schwarzenegger, June 1, 2005 Environmental Action Plan for CA 2010, 2000 levels 2020, 1990 levels 2050, 80% of 1990 levels "If we are saying that the loss of species in and of itself is inherently bad – I don't think we know enough about how the world works to say that." – Craig Manson, Int. Dept., appointed by Pres. Bush to oversee Endangered Species Act, Nov. 12, 2003 “I’ve always said it’s a serious long-term issue that needs to be dealt with, and … my administration isn’t waiting around... we lead the world when it comes to dollars spent - millions of dollars spent - on research about climate change. We want to know more about it. It’s easier to solve a problem when you know a lot about it.” – G. W. Bush, June 7, 2005, Meeting with Tony Blair

5 June 2005 Why this challenge? MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #1 Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems (both managed and wild ecosystems)  Human activities affect virtually every ecosystem  Interactions between climate, ecosystems, and resource use are critical to understanding: – climate change – environmental impacts – societal response options  Societal welfare ultimately depends on ecosystem welfare The larger calling:  Millennium Ecosystem Assessment – identified gaps that fit within NCAR’s mission.

5 June 2005 The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment – scientific gaps 1.Nature of interactions among drivers in particular regions and across scales 2.Responses of ecosystems to changes in nutrients and CO 2 3.Nonlinear changes in ecosystems; thresholds; dynamic characteristics of systems that lead to irreversible changes 4.Relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services 5.Approaches to nest or link scenarios developed at different geographic scales 6.Models of the relationship between ecosystems and human well-being 7.Models to link ecological and social processes 8.Communicating to non-specialists the complexity of holistic models and scenarios involving ecosystem services. MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #1 Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems Assessment Modeling Comm.

5 June 2005 Develop model output useful to ecosystem studies Ensure that climate change is considered in ecosystem management Combine climate change predictions with ecosystem response predictions Simple - organism level Complex - ecosystem response & feedbacks (carbon cycle work) Extremes rather than averages Variables useful to ecosystem studies Include ecosystems in models University researchers, ecosystem managers, etc Some work already being tackled: Fisheries, agriculture, water resources Encourage use of that output Data accessibility Dedicated visitor program Colloquia MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #1 Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems published studies using GCM climate predictions in ecosystem studies 34 Hadley (HadCM2, HadCM3) 16 CGCM 13 NCAR (CSM, CCSM, LSM, PCM, RegCM) 7 ECHAM 4 CSIRO

5 June 2005 MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #2 Improving Science-Society Interactions Why this challenge?  Climate stresses on society will increase What makes societal systems vulnerable? What increases society’s adaptive capacity? Where are thresholds to societal adaptability? The larger calling: IPCC assessments – TAR and AR4 point to need for better decision-support, understanding of human system dynamics CCSP Strategic Plan – growing interest in decision support Nat. Acad. Sci. – various efforts linking physical and social sciences in context of global environmental change GEO – Global Environment Outlook of UNEP  The demand for relevant scientific information in support of decision-making will increase in all weather- and climate-sensitive sectors What, when, in what form do decision-makers need scientific information?How can mutual interactions, trust, and benefits be increased?  The sustainability transition requires a significant role of (atmospheric) science and technology and understanding of human dynamics

5 June 2005 Growing partnerships with decision-makers in government and private sector Enhanced research on science- decision making interactions, VAR, societal interactions Identification of critical thresholds in societal and environmental systems Facilitate use of science in critical decisions Increase preparedness for weather & climate impacts and change Role in national & international assessments Modeling the human-system component of CCSM and regional models Develop regional-global models that capture societal inputs in Earth System Modeling efforts MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGE #2 Improving Science-Society Interactions

5 June 2005 NCAR uniqueness, role as integrator and facilitator MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions Credible information source with tremendous modeling and expert capacity Organizational structure that allows cross- disciplinary collaboration NCAR can seize the opportunity to apply its expertise (atmospheric science) in biospheric and societal studies

5 June 2005 Scientific activities to make progress in topic area MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions Enhanced research on science–decision- making interaction, vulnerability-adaptation- resilience, and on societal interactions Growing partnerships with decision-makers in government and private sector Enhanced research on ecological impacts; stronger engagement of universities, etc Combine climate change predictions with ecosystem response predictions Develop model output useful to ecosystem studies Encourage use of that output through workshops, etc.

5 June 2005 Leverage strengths/expertise of labs, divisions and institutes SERE-ISSE SERE-CCB SERE-Box4 ESSL-CGD-CCSM, TIMES/BGS, ACD Climate Modeling Modeling human system component of CCSM Air-pollution modeling RAL - Decision-making tools ECSA Junior Faculty Forum “Downscaling Climate Change: Extreme Events, Regional Impacts, and Ecosystems” Opportunity Fund – ecology-climate proposals Vulnerability/adaptation Use/value of information Decision-making under uncertainty Communication and social change Regional modeling MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions

5 June 2005 Tools needed to develop, improve or extend goals GIS, agent-based modeling, policy analysis and other decision-support tools; Achieving some goals are not tool-dependent Modeling, ecological forecasting, dataset development (e.g., GIS) Statistical downscaling and statistics of extreme events MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions

5 June 2005 Support NCAR community service mission Desirable/essential partnerships within/outside NCAR (esp. universities) The mission of NCAR: Realize “science in the service of society” by better understanding the interaction between science and society Research and information transfer for “the betterment of life on Earth” Natural integration across many NCAR groups University Community (beyond atmospheric Sciences – Environmental and Social Sciences) Government agencies (national to local) RISA and other research & assessment centers International research centers NGO’s Private sector (e.g., energy companies, water resources, insurance) MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions

5 June 2005 Education, Outreach, Knowledge transfer Natural avenue for connecting with public Make better use of NCAR’s expertise Expand public awareness of societal dependence on ecosystems, and ecosystem dependence on climate MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions

5 June 2005 EXISTING SUPPORT: 1. Assessment Initiative 2. Regional Modeling 3. ASP Postdoctoral Program 4. CCB 5. RAL – Technical support 6. ESSL – Climate change research NEEDS: Human Resources 1.Ecosystem Scientists 2.Social Scientists 3.Strong visitor program Strong Outreach 1.Workshops 2.Data development MAJOR FOCUS AREA AND EXCITING CHALLENGES Ecological Impacts & Science-Society Interactions NCAR Capacity to Undertake Suggested Program

5 June 2005 Requirements: 1.Understand societal needs (environment, health, well-being) 2.Understand societal response to climate change and other environmental issues 3.Advance research that leads to “betterment of life on Earth” This will help NCAR in its application of NCAR science to societal needs ; and will better illustrate the relevance of NCAR’s work Two main challenges are natural avenues for pursuing these goals: 1.Encouraging stronger research on Science-Society Interaction 2.Stronger application of NCAR science to environmental studies Improving Interactions between Science and Society SUMMARY Ecological Impacts Science-Society Interactions