Comments on “Climate Change and India” Jessica Seddon Wallack Director, Centre for Development Finance

3 Points Uncertain, yes, but science looks worse than in portrayed in the paper. Uncertain, yes, but science looks worse than in portrayed in the paper. Thinking about “now vs later,” and “growth vs. emissions limits” in this context adds to that case for a familiar (economic) reform agenda. Thinking about “now vs later,” and “growth vs. emissions limits” in this context adds to that case for a familiar (economic) reform agenda. CO 2 is just half of climate change; and options for the other climate changers look very familiar… CO 2 is just half of climate change; and options for the other climate changers look very familiar…

The Sky Might Be Falling Committed warming > observed warming. Committed warming > observed warming. Distribution of climate sensitivity parameter has a fat upper tail. Distribution of climate sensitivity parameter has a fat upper tail. Changes linked to peak CO 2 levels are irreversible. Changes linked to peak CO 2 levels are irreversible. Possible near(ish) “tipping points” that could accelerate climate change. Possible near(ish) “tipping points” that could accelerate climate change. Generally, scientific evidence seems to be looking worse every month. Generally, scientific evidence seems to be looking worse every month.

Temp increases look more damaging. Source: Smith et al (2009), PNAS

How to Assess Action/Inaction in Light of (Dismal) Science? Potential for disaster means rational to do something about truncating the “fat tail” of disastrous outcomes. [Weitzman (2008)] Potential for disaster means rational to do something about truncating the “fat tail” of disastrous outcomes. [Weitzman (2008)] Decision theory approach: Now vs later depends on how much we can learn while waiting vs the potential of increasing costs. Act now if potential for hazards to increase too much. [Summers and Zeckhauser (2009)] Decision theory approach: Now vs later depends on how much we can learn while waiting vs the potential of increasing costs. Act now if potential for hazards to increase too much. [Summers and Zeckhauser (2009)]

Implications Invest in reducing the “fat tail” Invest in reducing the “fat tail” Probably need more than growth for adaptability. Probably need more than growth for adaptability. Another argument for getting infrastructure, public delivery, etc. right. Another argument for getting infrastructure, public delivery, etc. right. Do focus on mitigation Do focus on mitigation Look at domestic actions with co-benefits: reform fuel subsidies, IP rights and technology diffusion, energy efficiency, etc. Look at domestic actions with co-benefits: reform fuel subsidies, IP rights and technology diffusion, energy efficiency, etc. Unilateral CO 2 commitments? Maybe some variant…. Unilateral CO 2 commitments? Maybe some variant…. Consider possibility of demonstration effect in international arena. Consider possibility of demonstration effect in international arena.

Offer Energy Efficiency Commitments? Source: World Development Indicators

Address The Other Climate Changers The other half of global warming: methane, halocarbons, tropospheric ozone, black/brown carbon. The other half of global warming: methane, halocarbons, tropospheric ozone, black/brown carbon. BC: 20-50% of effect of CO 2 + accelerated glacial melting. BC: 20-50% of effect of CO 2 + accelerated glacial melting. Ozone: 20% of effect of CO 2 Ozone: 20% of effect of CO 2 Comparison depends on the time-frame: in the medium run, these have 100s to 1000s x the warming potential of CO 2 Comparison depends on the time-frame: in the medium run, these have 100s to 1000s x the warming potential of CO 2 What’s different about these What’s different about these Shorter lifetime in the atmosphere (days to decades) Shorter lifetime in the atmosphere (days to decades) More local (BC and ozone) More local (BC and ozone) Tangible economic and development co-benefits from emissions reduction (health, agricultural productivity, quality of life) Tangible economic and development co-benefits from emissions reduction (health, agricultural productivity, quality of life)

Reducing BC and Ozone Help households move past traditional biomass based cooking, heating technologies => reduce BC, CO, methane. Help households move past traditional biomass based cooking, heating technologies => reduce BC, CO, methane. OK: LPG? OK: LPG? Better: Improved biomass stoves, espw/ processed fuel. Better: Improved biomass stoves, espw/ processed fuel. Reduce vehicular emissions => less NOx Reduce vehicular emissions => less NOx Target new fleets, encourage fleet turnover Target new fleets, encourage fleet turnover Crack down on adulteration Crack down on adulteration Revisit diesel subsidies (or require filters) Revisit diesel subsidies (or require filters) Public transport > private transport Public transport > private transport Finally get around to addressing shipping and multimodal transport issues. Finally get around to addressing shipping and multimodal transport issues.

Starts to look like the same list of economic reform issues….