Change of program Implementation Plan. T. Satomura Current status of and contribution by NICAM. T. Matsuno & T. Nasuno (~ 20 min) Comments. J. Shukla Discussion Break

Implementation Plan for the AMY modeling activity - summary and missing items in draft- T. Satomura

AMY objectives related to model Coordinated efforts on modeling and prediction experiments are required. –Target area (anywhere?) and period (when IOP?) Related AMY objectives are –Determining the predictability of the Asian monsoon on intraseasonal and seasonal time scales. –Determining the roles of land initialization in prediction of warm season precipitation especially over the land. –Development of a hydro-meteorological prediction system (with lead time up to a season) in Southeast Asia. –Better understanding of O-A-L-B interaction: multi-time- scale interaction from diurnal to inter-annual

Modeling activity is grouped into AGCM/CGCM prediction of MISO Seasonal prediction/predictability High-resolution model and development of hydro-met prediction system Regional reanalysis: with data group?

AGCM/CGCM prediction of MISO We should focus on improved representation of convection in models, design diagnostic studies for the behavior of convection in models, with appropriate observations to support model improvement of convection. In order to determine predictability and predictive skills of the Asian monsoon on intraseasonal time scales, monitoring and assessment of real time medium/extended range (1-30 days) predictions of the MJO using CGCM will be continued (BMR). Short-term simulations up to seasonal change using a global cloud resolving model will be accomplished and help understanding roles of convection in monsoon ISO including MJO and tropical cyclogenesis. Taking advantage of metrics for diagnostic analysis. Encouraging an organized effort to pursue prediction of monsoon ISO. For boreal summer and winter monsoon onset, active/break phases and retreat, both AGCMs and coupled GCMs can be used. Both hindcast and real time prediction are encouraged. Efforts to encourage operation centers doing organized prediction experiments of MJO and MISO.

Seasonal prediction/predictability Improve atmosphere-ocean initial conditions and develop coupled ocean- atmosphere-land data assimilation. Improve and develop new reanalysis datasets that use new satellite observations and Argo observations. (Global & regional) Promote model and observation studies for understanding of predictability of monsoon. Particular importance is to examine impact of land-ocean initialization on monthly to seasonal prediction. Consider making an organized analysis of existing hindcast datasets through APCC/CliPAS project and the planned WCRP Task Force on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), identifying a range of suitable metrics relating to the AAM for application to the outputs –To assess seasonal prediction skills and identify common weakness of the current dynamic predictions of the Asian monsoon –To determine the predictability of Indian Ocean Dipole which is an objective of the Indian Ocean Panel –To study the role of the MJO in the onset of the (1997) El Niño, which is a joint effort between AAMP and Pacific Panel (PP).

continued To propose of a coordinated hindcast experiment within the Asian monsoon community on the impact of land surface initialization and land-atmosphere interaction on the prediction of Asian summer monsoon rainfall in the continental regions to determine the roles of land initialization in continental seasonal rainfall prediction. Using CGCMs, predictability of coupled variability in Indian Ocean (including IOD, oceanic ENSO teleconnections, and monsoon/ENSO interaction) and its sensitivity to ocean and land initial conditions will be determined. Impact of ocean assimilation system on prediction of ENSO, IOD, ENSO- monsoon interaction and monsoon onset will be also studied. The engaged models in this direction are POAMA, MRI- CGCM and so on. Regional modeling activity in the same direction will be also continued.

High-resolution models and hydro-met pred. system Process studies on geographical variation of monsoon rainfall in time scales from diurnal to intraseasonal ranges by RM and HR-GCM. –Mechanisms and processes for the onset and maintenance of the summer monsoon. –Diurnal variations of summer convection. –Short-term climate simulation of summer rainfall. –Climate change scenarios for summer rainfall. –Mechanisms and processes for the winter monsoon over South China, South Asia and Southeast Asia. –Local climate and its connections to ENSO and Indian dipole mode. –MJO and its interaction with shorter/smaller scales over maritime continent. By using very high resolution AGCMs –Extreme event projection and evaluation and reduction of uncertainty in global warming projection –Prediction and evaluatation of disaster environment –Assessment climate-change impacts on flood risk and its reduction measures on global and local scales Using a global cloud-resolving model (ex. NICAM), short-term simulations up to season will be accomplished to understand hydro-meteorological systems.

continued It is recommended that coordinated multi-high resolution model ensemble experiments be organized to investigate sub-seasonal to interannual factors that influence extreme events, such as tropical cyclones, severe droughts, devastating floods. The propose by S. Schubert at NASA forms a very useful starting point for developing high resolution modeling activity. Encourage application of regional models to sensitivity studies of parameterization schemes and to the monsoon prediction problem and monsoon climate change issues. Utilize regional climate models to generating local information from seasonal prediction and climate change projection products of global coarse-resolution models for use in impact assessment Study impacts of aerosols on radiation budget and regional climate –Direct impacts of aerosols to the monsoon –Smoke haze model for Asian monsoon region

Summary of missing items in planning part Target areas (SEA? EA? SA?) and periods (summer? winter? 2008? hindcast?) and themes (diurnal to ISV?, all time scales?) for coordinated modeling activity Better understanding of O-A-L-B interaction: multi- time-scale interaction from diurnal to inter-annual: now it is difficult. (Possible: among limited time- scales or in some regions or by piecewisey) Concrete plan to develop hydro-met prediction system Global and regional reanalysis group is not included (Will Shukla talk?)

Cooperation wit data analysis groups

Comments by Shukla Muti-time scale interaction: difficult Need dynamical prediction system Need tuning for NICAM

Analysis of operational NWP (~10d) products –Onset predictability –Predictability of disturbances –Case study using NICAM Same for monthly & seasonal products –Predictability of MJO and ISO (operational, TFSP) –HR 45d forecasts (NASA, APCC)

Coordinated seasonal monsoon hindcast experiments with coupled O-L-A-Chemistry models (MRI, IAP, Korea, CCSR can) –Land, vegetation, snow initialization –Ocean, sea-ice initialization –Green house gas, aerosol initialization Coordinated decadal monsoon predictability experiments –Relative importance of internal climate dynamics versus GHG forcing –Analysis of AR4 and CMIP mode outputs