ECONOMICAL VIABILITY OF THE NUCLEAR OPTION IN MEXICO Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Inserting risk in the calculation of the Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) Athanasia Arapogianni Research Officer The European Wind Energy Association.

Advertisements

Hawaii: 2020 Presented by Alex Waegel for Team Cake B.

Said Chehab ALMEE Ramses Amman Workshop June 2010 Enhancement of Energy Efficiency Policies and Renewable Energy Sources in the Mediterranean region, a.

NARUC 2015 Winter Meeting February 16, 2015 Combined Heat and Power and the Clean Power Plan Bruce Hedman Institute for Industrial Productivity.

Why we believe 40% is the right thing to do. Gareth Allen Muireann Lynch Lisa Ruttledge Eamon Keane Sheila Nolan Leah McCabe John Kirby David Gibbons EirGrid.

By Mark Foley.  Combined Heat and Power is the generation of electricity and usable heat simultaneously from the same fuel input.  Electricity primarily.

Cogeneration. Is the simultaneous production of electrical and thermal energy from a single fuel source.

Toward a Sustainable Future Name of Conference, Event, or Audience Date Presenter’s Name | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All.

Overview Vermont Power Supply University of Vermont January 27, 2004 Dave Lamont Vermont Public Service Department.

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004: Key Trends and Challenges Marco Baroni Energy Analyst Economic Analysis Division INTERNATIONAL HYDROGEN.

ELECTRICITY LIBERALIZATION IN BRAZIL & ENVIRONMENT GRENELEM PROJECT - WP 1 Santiago de Chile, 10-11th September 2001 The liberalization of the Brazilian.

NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable.

© OECD/IEA POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK IN OECD COUNTRIES 28 May 2010 Roundtable: Russian Federal Tariff Service Ian Cronshaw, Head, Energy Diversification.

Sustainable energy supply in Germany – scenario analysis with different CO 2 certificate prices Markus Blesl, Uwe Remme, Ulrich Fahl International.

Achieving a sustainable energy balance for the U.S. current energy mix - 80% fossil fuel increasing renewables (wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, etc) increasing.

Clear Thinking on Nuclear: New Plant Construction Nuclear energy is dependable, affordable, and environmentally sound. Nuclear energy is needed to meet.

1 March 2-3, 2015, Bonn Expert workshop Addressing Variable Renewables In Long‐Term Energy Planning (AVRIL) Renewables Energy Integration In Long‐Term.

Electricity Generation, Distribution and Supply in Ireland Bob Hanna SEI 24 September 2003.

Copenhagen 29 June Energy and climate outlook: Renewables in a world and European perspective Peter Russ.

Johnthescone The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation.

Economic Analyses of FPL’s New Nuclear Projects: An Overview Dr. Steven Sim Senior Manager, Resource Assessment & Planning Florida Power & Light Company.

© OECD/IEA 2011 COAL AND CHINA’S CHOICES Jonathan Sinton China Program Manager International Energy Agency Washington, D.C., 12 January 2011.

Balancing the Environment and Economic Objectives of Energy Policy Panellist View Keiichi YOKOBORI Institute of Research and Innovation The 14 th General.

April 23, 2013 NATIONAL COAL CONFERENCE Chairman Robert F. Powelson Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission.

The National Danish Energy Policy focus on waste and biomass Anders H Kristensen Danish Energy Agency.

WORKSHOP ON TECHNOLOGY PATHWAYS FORWARD FOR CARBON CAPTURE & STORAGE ON NATURAL GAS POWER SYSTEMS April 22, 2014 Revis W. James Director, Generation R&D.

Virginia : Offshore Wind Feasibility Analysis Trevor S. Daubenspeck.

1 Atmospheric Vortex Engine Development and Economic.

 400 new jobs  300% >90% ROI Greener  40MW SSE Ireland Better Energy Supply 600,000 gas and electricity customers Sustainability Making energy better.

1 Status of and Outlook for Coal Supply and Demand in the U.S. Imagine West Virginia Spring 2010 Board of Governors Meeting April 13, 2010 Scott Sitzer.

ISF:RESEARCH AND CONSULTANCY THINK. CHANGE. DO INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES South African Energy Sector Jobs to Report for Greenpeace Africa.

© OECD/IEA NATURAL GAS MARKEREVIEW 2008 Gas and the Sustainability Drive: what will it do the fuel mix? Ian Cronshaw, Head of Energy Diversification.

Spain: Can we give up any of the primary energy sources? Alejo Vidal-Quadras Roca Vice-President of the European Parliament Member of the Industry, Energy.

KEC Electricity Committee, March 12, 2008 Benefit Cost Study of the Governor’s 2015 Wind Challenge: 1,000 MW by 2015 Bob Glass KCC Utilities Division,

Jenell Katheiser Doug Murray Long Term Study Scenarios and Generation Expansion Update January 22, 2013.

Energy Systems Modeling at ERC The SA TIMES Model.

Co-Production of Hydrogen and Electricity (GHG/07/42) Hydrogen may be used in future as an energy carrier In the long term it is expected.

COMMUNITY CHOICE AGGREGATION: TECHNICAL STUDY RESULTS Peninsula Clean Energy September 24,2015.

Chapter 3 Wind Power of the world. 3.1 Development and utilization of wind energy in China  Wind power generation  Wind farm construction.

World Energy Outlook 2006 Scenarios for the World and the European Union Presentation to European Wind Energy Conference Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007.

CCS The development worldwide Evonik’s view Dr. Alfred Tacke Chairman of the Board of Management Evonik Steag GmbH, Germany.

© OECD/IEA Mtoe Other renewables Hydro Nuclear Biomass Gas.

HYDROPOWER. Objective: The student will be become familiar with the Corps policy for hydropower development. The student will be have a basic understanding.

Low Carbon Buildings and Sustainability By Dr David Johnston – licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution – Non-Commercial – Share Alike License

Economics of electricity production and competitiveness of nuclear energy Prof. Dr.-Ing. Alfred Voß Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use.

Johnthescone The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation UN Climate Change Conference June 2011 Bonn, Germany, 7.

Financial evaluation 9 March Financial Feasibility Assess the ability of the utility or developer to meet the financial obligations associated with.

15 TH Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference, October 2006, Sydney, Australia1 ECONOMICS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY ECONOMICS OF NUCLEAR ENERGY IN A SUSTAINABLE.

Carbon Emissions and the Need for Improved Energy Efficiency.

ERCOT PUBLIC 7/14/ Model Data Assumptions Doug Murray ERCOT Sr. Planning Analyst LTSA Scenario Development Workshop July 14, 2015.

Johnthescone The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation.

Ljubljana, 9 July 2014 Energy and Sustainability building a sustainable energy future - without the hot air Samo Fürst, GEN energija.

Future Projections: Tidal Power in the UK Alice Sheppard 24 th February 2005.

NB Power Presentation by New Brunswick Power Corporation November 10, 2015.

PORTFOLIO RISK ANALYSIS BASED GENERATION EXPANSION PLANNING Presenter: Nguyen Xuan Phuc Asian Institute of Technology School of Environment, Resources.

CAFE Baseline dissemination workshop 27/09/2004 Dr. Leonidas Mantzos E3M-LAB/ICCS NTUA contact: Energy projections as input to the.

October 26, 2005 ICF Consulting RGGI Electricity Sector Modeling Results RPS Sensitivity & Very High Emissions Reference and Package Cases.

NPC Industrial Demand Group Study Summary Ray Ratheal 8/19/2010.

Energy Transition – Energiewende - in Germany

1 11. PROFITABILITY EVALUATION OF NEW POWER PLANT ALTERNATIVES Asko Vuorinen.

London 2062 Symposium London’s Energy Future Peter North 19 th March 2012.

Energy System Investment and Risk Management Unit 2: Energy Economics and Markets Connect Seminar, 3 rd March 2016, 18:30GMT.

Pennsylvania Electric Supply GHG Forecast 1 Victoria Clark Stockholm Environment Institute - US Center 5/29/09.

Nuclear Fleet: Configuration Management Benchmarking Group 2016 June 6, 2016.

Diversification of Energy Power Plants in the North of Chile Matías Raby.

World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030

CSP Grid Value of Energy Storage and LCOE Implications 26 August 2013

General comments (1) Price level needs to be specified (recommended: € 2000). Operation and maintenance costs (O+M) should be splitted into fixed (depending.

Anne Baschwitz Gilles Mathonnière

Presentation transcript:

ECONOMICAL VIABILITY OF THE NUCLEAR OPTION IN MEXICO Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Nucleares

45,576 MW Installed Capacity Fossil Fuel 66.8% Gas 32% CFE-2005

Electricity Generation TWh Nuclear contributes with about 5% since 1996 CFE-2005 Gas 52%

Forecast for Electricity Gross Consumption An increase of about 60% from 2005 to

Required Capacity There should be an addition of 22,126 MW 6,184 MW already Committed 15,942 MW Non Committed 9,764 Technology already specified 6,178 Free Technology

The Case for Nuclear High Volatility of Gas Prices Concern for CO2 Emissions Balanced Fuel Mix Economical Competitiveness

Levelized Cost Methodology Quantifies the unitary cost of electricity (the kWh) during the lifetime of a power plant The methodology considers the total electrical energy that the power plant will deliver in its lifetime

Levelized Cost Methodology Levelized cost is the sum of: Investment cost: which is the one generated during construction Production cost: is the one generated during the life of the plant, it includes Fuel cost and Operation and maintenance costs

OECD-2005 Levelized Total Generation Cost Benchmarking Plant Type DR % OECD USD/MWh ININ USD/MWh Min.Max.Min.Max. Gas Nuclear Gas Nuclear

Scenarios DR % 5 10 Gas Price$/MBTU Nuclear Construction Cost (Output 1350 MWe) $/kWe

Assumptions Plant TypeGasCoalNuclear Lifetime (Years)2540 Capacity Factor (%)80 90 Proper Uses (%) Power Output (MWe) Thermal Efficiency (%) Construction Time (Years)245 Overnigth Cost (USD/kWe) Fuel Cost * USD/mmBTU + USD/MWh 4.44 * 5.20 * 7.00 * 1.78 * O&M cost (USD/MWh)

Generation Cost (DR)

Capital Cost (DR)

Nuclear Generation Cost Assuming Delays

Levelized electricity generating cost assuming different capacity factors

Cash Flow* Type of Plant Investment Cost USD/kWe Power MWe Annual Gross Energy MWe 0&M Cost x10 6 USD/yr Gas ,802,82110 Nuclear Medium ,359,29276 *Without fuel costs

Present Value of the Cash Flow (DR 8%) Gas $/mmBTU; Gas $/mmBTU; Gas $/mmBTU

Generating Cost variability Due to Fuel Price Gas price at 0% is 4.44 USD/MBTU and Nuclear Fuel Cost is 6.80 USD/MWh –40% it is about 2.50 USD/mmBTU for the Gas price

Summary Even with delays of up to 3 years nuclear is competitive with the gas option, and it is still cheaper when gas price is greater or equal to 7 USD/mmBTU. Considering an 80% capacity factor, instead of 90% results in an increase of 4 USD/MW in the levelized cost.

Summary (cont.) When the price of gas is not less than 5.20 USD/mmBTU, the levelized cost of nuclear generated electricity is lower than the cost resulting from using natural gas, as long as construction time is not longer than 7 years.

Conclusion Nuclear power is competitive in all the scenarios considered, and it should be given serious consideration in the definition of Mexico’s additional electrical capacity program.