1 Student Longitudinal Growth Project Jonathan Wiens Office of Assessment and Information Services Oregon Department of Education

2 Model Development 1/08 to 8/08 – ODE researches growth models, and tests them with historic test data tests them with historic test data 3/08-9/08 – ODE shares models with internal and external advisory committees external advisory committees 9/08-11/08 – ODE, stakeholders, and technical consultant refine details of leading consultant refine details of leading candidates, with stakeholder input candidates, with stakeholder input 11/08-12/08 – ODE, advisors recommend the “Student Centered” model 12/08- 4/09 – ODE presents Student Centered Growth model for wider review. Growth model for wider review.

3 Growth Models  A Growth Model is a method of measuring student learning over time.  Growth models can provide a more dynamic view of school effectiveness.  Growth models can allow schools receive credit for: –closing the Achievement Gap –accelerating student learning –moving students closer to standard

4 Individual Student Growth The most detailed view of growth occurs at the student level. Which years are a success for the student and for the school? * - The “Gap” is the difference between the student score and the cut score. Grade Cut Score Student Score Gap*Growth

5 The “Student Centered” Model  Students below standard in the previous year are given a target score for the current year.*  Students whose score is at or above their target “meet growth.”  Targets are based on the student’s prior year test score. –Students are expected to grow toward meeting standard. –Lower performing students must exhibit higher growth. * - does not apply to 10 th grade.

6 Sample Reading Growth Targets Growth targets will require the “gap” between a student’s score and benchmark to decrease over time, generally by about 40% to 50% each year. Sample Reading Growth Targets Growth targets will require the “gap” between a student’s score and benchmark to decrease over time, generally by about 40% to 50% each year. Score in 3 rd Grade Target for 4 th Grade ExpectedGrowth 3rd Grade “Gap” 4 th Grade “Gap” Student A Student B Student C Student M

7 Required “Gap” closures The gap closures below are based on growth in the meets scores over one- and three- year periods. Required Decrease in the “Gap” PreviousGrade Current Grade ReadingMath 3439%44% 4544%43% 5631%25% 6736%33% 7844%40%

8 Median Reading Growth – Actual Data

9 Sample Trajectories  The next charts show the trajectories of students who exactly meet their growth targets each year.  The charts include the option for “growth toward a 236” for those meeting or exceeding (these are still draft and are not used in accountability).  Four examples are given – one student each at the Very Low, Low, Meets, and Exceeds.

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Statewide Results Grade to Growth Status“Status or Growth” Students in Model Number Meeting Growth % Met GrowthStudents Number Meeting % Met Met Status or Growth% Math %39,88831,57679%31,59479% 437,90023,49362%39,97431,55079%33,65384% 537,76421,52357%39,75131,25479%33,12083% 638,04620,81055%40,06928,99172%31,81779% 738,12426,27869%40,02730,56876%33,67184% 838,10120,38954%39,83428,23271%29,95075% ,56621,60255%21,60255% Reading %39,89434,43686%34,44586% 436,84620,52356%39,97634,02285%35,25888% 537,53916,49444%39,77030,81277%31,93080% 637,85523,55262%40,07830,23075%33,24283% 738,05524,28564%40,04630,35476%32,61481% 838,05116,13742%39,83026,81367%27,99470% ,79226,66067%26,66067%

13 Math to Growth Status“Status or Growth” Students in Model Met Growth % Met GrowthStudentsMet % Met Status or Growth% All Students 190,074112,60659%279,109203,77373%215,40777% Economically Disadvantaged 86,67847,24355%124,74277,52762%85,55169% Limited English Proficient 24,15812,87453%34,37917,35450%20,63660% Students with Disabilities 25,38411,97347%37,52116,89345%20,37154% American Indian/ Alaskan Native 3,9112,11854%5,7223,60163%3,92469% Asian/ Pacific Islander 8,9966,07768%13,18910,92883%11,28786% African American 5,2412,90455%7,9034,54858%5,11565% Hispanic 32,14317,35454%46,18325,76356%29,44464% White 131,94579,54360%194,599150,29877%156,54780% Multi-Racial/ Multi-Ethnic 4,7422,79859%6,8745,15875%5,42879%

14 Percent Meeting Growth Based on Prior Year Score

15 Reading Longitudinal Student Growth Report – Mock-Up

16 “School Centered” Model  Examines the effect of a student’s prior year test score on the odds a student will meet in the current year.  Suggested by American Institutes of Research (AIR), which has worked on growth with two other states.

17 Percent Meeting in 4 th Grade by 3 rd Grade Score Statewide Results to

18 Range of School Effects This chart shows the models highest and lowest performing schools at 4 th grade in Notice the wide range in school effects.

19 “Probability Spreadsheet” The spreadsheet contains district level data. ODE plans to release this data before the end of the school year.

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21 Report Card School Rating Formula

22 Timeline Sept 24Preview of Detail sheets Oct 1 Preview of Summary sheets Oct 15 2 nd preview Oct 293rd preview Nov 5 Final district preview Nov 10Public Release

23 Changes to the Report Card  Only three overall rating categories –Outstanding –Satisfactory –In Need of Improvement  Graduation Rates used instead of dropout rates.  The growth model will be incorporated into the rating formula.

24 New Report Card Values We reward schools for – students meeting standard – students exceeding standard – students showing growth – closing the achievement gap We have been developing this model since Summer 2008 with input from key stakeholder advisory groups

25 The New Achievement Index  Points awarded according to: –133 points for Exceeds –100 points for Meets –100 points for Did Not Meet, but Met Growth  Use the same students as are used for AYP –includes extended assessments –includes the 1% rule for extended assessments  At high school we will use growth in school performance as the growth measure, and will give partial credit for nearly meets and low.

26 Overall Rating  Subgroups are not rated, only a holistic school rating is given.  To address the Achievement Gap, a school’s Achievement Index is a weighted average the achievement of subgroups.  Subgroups in the weighting include “All Students” plus subgroups with an historic statewide achievement gap.  Low Attendance/Graduation and Participation can lower the school rating.

27 Detail Sheet Preview

28 Likely Impact on School Ratings  About half of the formerly “strong” schools will be rated as “Outstanding”  “Low” and “Unsatisfactory” schools generally move to “Needs Improvement”  The following table shows how schools would have been rated in if the new formula had been applied.

29 Potential Changes – Impact on Ratings

30 Cohort Graduation Rate

31 Timeline  June The 0708 Informational Cohort Rate provided to districts.  Summer ODE will submit for approval from the US Department of Education  Summer begin data cleanup for the 0809 cohort  Spring Cohort rate will be reported  Fall Cohort rate will be used in AYP determinations

32 What is the Cohort Rate?  The Cohort Rate is the percent of students who receive a regular diploma within four years of entering high school.  The Cohort Rate tracks students over the course of 4 years starting with their first year in high school.  Each member of a cohort will be assigned a final outcome at the end of the four years.

33 Data Sources and Process  The Cohort rate uses Resident Institution only.  ODE uses records from ADM, Membership, Early Leavers, and High School Completers to assign students to a probable cohort.  Districts confirm the cohort of the student.  Final outcomes are determined from the most recent events in our databases.  Students are assigned to their most recent diploma granting institution.

34 Who is included?  The unadjusted cohort is comprised of any student, enrolled in an Oregon public school by the end of the school year, who first entered high school in in any school inside or outside Oregon.  The adjusted cohort is comprised of the unadjusted cohort minus students who died, entered the home schooling system, or transferred out to a diploma granting institution outside the Oregon Public Education system as their final high school educational setting.

35 Sample Statewide Data OutcomeNumber Unadjusted Cohort Inferred Transfers out Non-dropout leavers 240 Honorary Diploma 435 Adjusted Cohort 45497Pct Graduates % Dropouts % Modified8331.8% GED % Adult HS Diploma 330.1% Continuing Enrollment % Non-continuing, non-graduate 640.1% Alternate Credential or No Diploma %

36 Federal Requirements  State must set a graduation Goal –This need not be 100%  State must set yearly targets that show significant progress toward the goal  Minimum group size should not exceed the minimum group size for participation (40).  Margin of Error is unlikely to be approved.

37 Federal Flexibility  AYP reports may average data over two years, or use the most recent year, whichever is higher.  States are responsible for developing subgroup membership rules.  Four-year rate can include summer graduates.

38 Available Options  State may develop an extended-year rate. –It may not supplant the four-year rate. –Targets must be more aggressive (goal is the same).  Targets for individual schools may vary –States can implement a “Safe Harbor” provision

39 The following slides represent ODE leanings on the required policy decisions. These are subject to revision.

40 How to “Meet” on Graduation Schools/subgroups can meet on AYP Graduation through: –Meeting the target for the four-year rate; based on a two-year average or the most recent year; or –Decreasing the % of students not graduating by 10% from one year to the next; or –Meeting the target for the Extended rate; based on a two-year average or the most recent year

41 Graduation Goal and Targets  Graduation Goal of 90%  Targets with a 2% increase from current targets to the goal in Reporting Year 4-yearCohort5-yearExtended %73.5% Yearly Increase 2%1.5% %90%

42 Minimum Cell Size ODE recommends the minimum be a total cohort size of 20 (an average of 10 for each year). Distribution of Single Year Cohort Size: Less than 10: 29 schools* 10 to 19:30 schools 20 to 39:48 schools 40 or more:208 * -- These schools are typically rated on attendance.

43 Subgroup Membership  Race/Ethnicity –Based on the last student record.  Special Education, Economically Disadvantaged and Limited English Proficient –Based on whether the student was classified in these subgroups at any time during high school

44 Contact Information For more information on the Growth Model or the Report Card, contact: Jon Wiens at Phone: or visit the Growth Model Web Page at: