Chemical Weather Forecasting Perspectives & Challenges Gregory R. Carmichael Department of Chemical & Biochemical Engineering Center for Global & Regional Environmental Research and the University of Iowa

Climate : Air Quality Analysis Framework

TRACE-P EXECUTION Emissions -Fossil fuel -Biomass burning -Biosphere, dust Long-range transport from Europe, N. America, Africa ASIA PACIFIC P-3 Satellite data in near-real time: MOPITT TOMS SEAWIFS AVHRR LIS DC-8 3D chemical model forecasts: - ECHAM - GEOS-CHEM - Iowa/Kyushu - Meso-NH FLIGHT PLANNING Boundary layer chemical/aerosol processing ASIAN OUTFLOW Stratospheric intrusions PACIFIC Forecasting in Support of Field Experiments

Fly here to sample high O 3

Ace-Asia April/May 2001

Flight Tracks Along the Asian Pacific Rim During the TRACE-P Mission

From P. Westphals web site: / These dust outbreaks caused severe problems in China These photos are reduced-resolution versions of photos taken by Dr. Zev Levin while visiting Baicheng, Jilin Province, China (NE of Beijing) during the dust storm. The first two were taken on April 7th. The third was taken on April 8th. The two buildings seen in the foreground of the third image are also seen in the second

The CFORS forecast (upper left) of the two dust systems are shown above. The dust plume (pink) represents the region with dust concentrations greater than 200  grams/m 3. White indicates clouds. The SeaWifs satellite image (upper right) also clearly shows the accumulation of dust spiraling into the Low Pressure center. Also note the strong outflow of dust in the warm sector “ahead” of the front over the Japan Sea. The two systems are clearly seen in the satellite derived TOMS-AI (aerosol index) (lower right). The dust event is clearly seen in the China SEPA air pollution monitoring network. Lower left hand panel shows extremely large ground level concentrations ( The sandstorm and sand-drifting weather, which swept across most parts of China caused severe visibility and air quality problems NASA-Seawifs

The Emissions Vary Greatly by Region – Reflecting Many Social/Economic Factors

The TRACE-P/Ace-Asia emission inventory shows the important sources of each type of air pollutant in Asia

Uncertainty analysis has revealed wide differences in our knowledge of the emissions of particular species in particular parts of Asia …

Intercontinental Transport of Pollutants has Become an Important Issue

Yienger et al., JGR, 26931, 2000

Slide courtesy of D. Jacob

Why Forecast Air Quality? Provide information to the public operationally to help them better manage their health and welfare (heat stress, comfort, pollen, flight operations, large scale pollution/fire events, safer more effective conditions to apply chemicals)

Hansen et al., 2001 Air Pollutants Also Play a Key Role in Climate Forcing

Particles Impact Human Health and MORE

Rotstayn et al., J. Climate, Aug, 2002

Where do we go from here? Example of Use of 3-D CFORS modeling system at TRACE-P Information Day in Hong Kong

New Project to Work on Chemical Weather Forecasting/Data Integration: NSF Information Technology Research – 5 years, $2.3M UI/CIT/NCAR/UWash/MTU

Asian Brown Cloud – A New UNEP Study

Rice The most important cereal crop in India, contributes more than 40% of India’s total food grain. The CERES - Rice model run for two locations in India with two sowing times suggested that the presence of pollution aerosols could reduce rice yields by 2-8%. The effect was more pronounced for the second date of sowing.

Particles Impact Human Health and MORE

Rotstayn et al., J. Climate, Aug, 2002

Yienger et al., JGR, 26931, 2000 Intercontinental Transport of Pollutants has Become an Important Issue

Slide courtesy of D. Jacob

Hansen et al., 2001 Air Pollutants Also Play a Key Role in Climate Forcing

CGRER At A Glance 64 members from –16 departments –5 colleges In the last 3 years – –35 MS degrees –28 PhD degrees Facilities –GIS/GPS Laboratory –Paul H. Nelson Stable Isotope Laboratory –Outdoor Laboratory

Intercontinental Transport of Pollutants has Become an Important Issue