Small hydro from idea to operation Scotland’s Changing Hydro Resource – 2008 to 2012 and Beyond Nick Forrest

Small hydro from idea to operation Topics  Recent history of hydro  National resource – what is it now?  What the sites look like  How fast will hydro grow?  What are the critical factors?

Small hydro from idea to operation Cumulative Installed Hydro

Small hydro from idea to operation Developers  Uncertain markets  Money looking for investments  Many new developers  Land grab  How much is left?

Small hydro from idea to operation SNH and SEPA  Increasing number of applicants  Cumulative effects

Small hydro from idea to operation Scottish Government  Pollution & climate change  Energy security  Rural income

Small hydro from idea to operation National Surveys

Small hydro from idea to operation Hydrobot  Remote hydro prediction, including: Flow duration statistics Flow duration statistics Layout and equipment optimisation Layout and equipment optimisation Grid connection Grid connection Costs and revenues Costs and revenues NPV indicating best option NPV indicating best option Applicable across regions Applicable across regions

Small hydro from idea to operation T1T2

Small hydro from idea to operation Scottish Hydropower Resource Study  657MW of untapped potential  >1,000 schemes, 20kW to 20MW

Small hydro from idea to operation Employment Study  The Employment Potential of Scotland’s Hydro Resource  Refined costings  Included micro hydro (<100kW)  Feed-In Tariffs (FITs)

Small hydro from idea to operation Revised Resource  1.2 GW potential, 7,000 schemes  169 MW across 4,400 micro-hydro sites

Small hydro from idea to operation SNH Study  New Feed-In Tariffs  Simple payback of 10 years or less  Variable design flow (1 to 1.3)  Survey and mitigation costs  Full set of CAR licenses entered  706MW across 6,312 schemes

Small hydro from idea to operation babyHydro 2012  (I’m talking about this one)  FITs as of December 2012  997MW across 9,152 schemes

Small hydro from idea to operation

Technical Screening  1:50,000 maps  Maps of distribution grid  River status  Existing schemes

Small hydro from idea to operation Technical Screening CodeDescription T1Forestry Commission T2Access or gorge T3Other obstacle T4Grid issues T5 Interferes with existing scheme T6Error T7Low gradient T8Good

Small hydro from idea to operation Screened Resource  Total resource = 997MW  33% good = 329MW  165MW on Forestry Commission land  33% good = 55MW  Total without barriers = 384MW

Small hydro from idea to operation Two Waves?

Small hydro from idea to operation But How Fast? Do We Care?  Market size  Targets  Replacing other sources in time  Incentives to stimulate market  Degression

Small hydro from idea to operation Straight-Line Trends  Rate of commissioning  Rate of consenting

Small hydro from idea to operation Cumulative Installed Hydro

Small hydro from idea to operation Excluding Fasnakyle & Glendoe

Small hydro from idea to operation Commissioning and Consenting Trends

Small hydro from idea to operation Commissioning and Consenting Trends

Small hydro from idea to operation Employment Study  Human resources for hydro  Realistic growth – Normal curve  Growth in workforce defines upper limit in hydro deployment

Small hydro from idea to operation Employment Study  Graph by Jamie Wallace, Highland Eco-Design

Small hydro from idea to operation Cumulative Normal Curves

Small hydro from idea to operation Cumulative Normal Curves

Small hydro from idea to operation Cumulative Normal Curves

Small hydro from idea to operation Cumulative Normal Curves

Small hydro from idea to operation Degression 10% 20% 5% 2.5%

Small hydro from idea to operation Influences  Sites  Grid  Revenue support  Funding  Rents  Environment

Small hydro from idea to operation Conclusion  997MW total capacity, mostly in kW band  384MW has no known barrier  We predict around 112MW deployment between now and 2020  5% degression probably for >10 years  10% degression likely on occasion

Small hydro from idea to operation Nick Forrest babyHydro Ltd M: E:

Small hydro from idea to operation Influences  Sites  Grid  Revenue support  Funding  Rents  Environment