Oct. 13 th, 2015 Columbus Day 2K15
Agenda 1)Pitch (example) – Mike Metz 1)Industry & company research 2
Pitch walk-through: (CALM) Mike Metz
Recommendation: Buy Share Price (as of 3/26/15): $38.81 Michael Metz Thomas Chadwick Cal- Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM:NASDAQ)
Thesis Leading producer Highly fragmented industry Price shock from Chinese ban Prop 2 Acquisitions Alignment between shareholders/management Strong dividend
Fundamentals Sector: Consumer Staples Current Price: $38.81 Market Cap: $1.87B Beta:.61 P/E: Dividend Yield: 1/3 Net Income Paid Quarterly Last Years Annual Yield:2.87% Revenue: $1.45B EBITDA:$183M
Egg Industry Products –Shell Eggs –Specialty Shell Eggs –Egg Products- Liquid, Frozen –Food Service –Export
Cal- Maine Foods, Inc. Largest producer/ marketer of shell eggs in USA 3 Business Segments –Specialty Eggs –Regular Shell Eggs –Liquid, Frozen, or Dried Produces domestically
Highest Total Layers- USA
CALM’s Top Locations/ Brands Southwestern Southeastern Mid- Western Mid- Atlantic Egg-Land’s Best®, Land O’ Lakes®, Farmhouse®, and 4-Grain®
Top 10 Customers
Vertically Integrated
CALM Egg Growth
Top-Line Growth
Customer’s Health Choices
Risk Factors: 1.Egg Price Volatility 2.Feed Price Volatility 3.Shift to other products 4.Seasonality 5.Government Regulation 6.Consumer Demand 7.Barriers of Entry
Egg Price Volatility
Feed Price Volatility
Risk of Consumer’s Shifting to Other Products
Seasonality
Government Regulation/ Barriers to Entry Prop 2 California Animal Rights Activists –Animal Concentration
Consumer Demand
CAPEX Strategy Growth and Acquisition of Fragmented Market Improved Facilities
Acquisitions Completed 18 acquisitions since 1989 Acquired remaining 50% of Delta Egg Farms for $17M- 2014
Latest Earnings Report 12/23/14 reported Q2 of 2015 Net Sales $378.6 million (6.9% yoy) 36.6 million Net Income $0.76 per share Fiscal 2014: Billion Dozen Shell Eggs Sold
Financial Highlights
Institutional/ Insider Holdings 12/23/14 reported Q2 of 2015 Net Sales $378.6 million (6.9% yoy) 36.6 million Net Income $0.76 per share Fiscal 2014: Eggs Sold *13G/A Filing on BlackRock Institutional purchased a 6.3% stake
Recent Decline Due to Misunderstanding China temporarily banned imports of US chicken, turkey, and eggs –Effective January 8, 2015 –Strain of (HPAI) in Pacific Northwest Occurs only in wild birds/ small domestic flocks Hundreds of miles away from US commercial prod. Exports to China account for 0.7% of total US shell egg production
Stock Performance
Comparable Competitors* *main peers are Rose Acre Farms, Moark LLC, Rembrandt Enterprises, Daybreak Foods CALMTSNSAFMHRLIBA Mtk Cap$1.72B$14.51B$1.83B$14.91B$2.61B P/E P/B P/S Beta EPS
Review Leading producer Highly fragmented industry Price shock from Chinese ban Prop 2 Acquisitions Alignment between shareholders/management Strong dividend
DCF Valuation
Questions?
Industry & Company Research Jamie Carlstedt
How do I find a company?
36 Resources Bloomberg terminal ETF Database MSU library resources Morningstar.com Finviz.com Wall Street Journal Equity Research Reports Google search for things! BEST!
37 Company website Company filings Presentations Earnings calls Other juicy info… “Investor Relations”
38 SEC FIlings 10-K= Annual Filing 10-Q= Quarterly Filing 8-K= Current Report DEFA14A = Proxy Filing
39 Sections of 10-K 1) Business 2) Risk factors 3) Unresolved staff comments 4) Properties 5) Legal proceedings 6) Market for registrant’s common equity, related stockholder matters & issuer purchases of equity securities 7) Selected financial data 8) Management’s discussion & analysis of financial condition & results of operations 9) Quantitative & qualitative disclosures about market risk
40 Sections of 10-K 10) Financial statements & supplementary data 11) Changes in & disagreements with accountants on accounting and financial disclosure 12) Directors, executive officers & corporate governance 13) Certain relationships & related transactions, & director independence 14) Principal accountant fees & services 15) Exhibits, financial statement schedules
Value Investing Porter’s 5 forces
- “W hether we’re talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is marked down.” Recommended Reading The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham
Hopefully not. Professional LinkedIn photos - $20 Next Wed., Oct. 21 after our meeting