KENNETH WILSON, CATHERINE F SMITH, DONNA KAIN, MICHELLE COVI & DOUG SOLOMON EAST CAROLINA UNIVERSITY SOUTHERN SOCIOLOGY SOCIETY ANNUAL MEETING APRIL 8, 2011 Who Considers Evacuation When a Hurricane Approaches?

Research Case study of hurricane risk and emergency communication in eastern NC We surveyed 20 counties and interviewed 6 counties in- depth. SurveyedInterviewed Residents (year-round) Businesses and Organizations Local Government Officials NA 24 (EMs, PIOs, county commissioners, county managers)

Presentation Agenda This presentation focuses on identifying those who consider evacuation when a hurricane is approaching the coast. It uses the results of telephone/internet surveys in the 20 NC CAMA counties and Insights from interviews/focus groups in 6 counties

Households Respond to Severe Weather Many households take the threat seriously  68% reported that they had a disaster preparedness plan  76% know the location of an emergency shelter  91% know the evacuation route from their home  82% know if an evacuation order covers their home

Households Respond to Severe Weather Things are getting better and families are more willing to plan for an emergency today  In our survey, 68% of respondents had a plan  After Hurricane Floyd, only 56% had a plan  After Hurricane Bonnie, only 49% had a plan  A Socioeconomic Impact Analysis for Hurricanes Bonnie, Dennis and Floyd by John C. Whitehead, Marieke Van Willigen, Bob Edwards, Kenneth Wilson and John Maiolo, the Final Report to North Carolina Division of Emergency Management (HMGP ) and North Carolina Sea Grant (NCSU ), June 2001.

Who has a plan? Table 2 Factor Influences Having a Plan Have a Plan Exp(B)SigExp(B)Sig SocialIncome BackgroundEducation VariablesAge Married Children at Home Length of Residence RiskMobile Home, RV,Boat VariablesEvacuation Covers Home Neighbors Evacuate? Live in a Surge Zone Risk from Flooding Risk from Wind Constant Model Chi-Square(df) (6) (12) CV Block Chi-Square(df) (6) Risk Block Chi-Square(df) (6) (6) % Correct Predictions 70.1% 72.1% Cox & Snell R

When Severe Weather Threatens…

Considerations “Once you think your safety may be at risk, what are the most important considerations when deciding whether or not to evacuate?”  Strength of the hurricane (93%)  Direction of the hurricane (78%)  A mandatory evacuation order (67%) People want to make their own decision but your evacuation orders are part of their decision-making process

Households Respond to Severe Weather 14% reported at least one time they did not evacuate when they should have Why:  did not feel threatened (28%)  did not realize how bad the storm would be (22%)  thought the storm was not severe or close enough (15%). While people are confident that they will make the right decision, people make mistakes.

Who prepares to leave? Table 3 Factor Influences Who Prepares to Evacuate Prepare to Evacuate Exp(B)SigExp(B)Sig SocialIncome BackgroundEducation VariablesAge Married Children at Home Length of Residence RiskMobile Home, RV,Boat VariablesEvacuation Covers Home Neighbors Evacuate? Live in a Surge Zone Risk from Flooding Risk from Wind Constant Model Chi-Square(df) (6) (12) CV Block Chi-Square(df) (6) Risk Block Chi-Square(df) (6) (6) % Correct Predictions 92.5% 72.1% Cox & Snell R

Who prepares to make a decision? Table 4 Factor Influences Who Prepares to Decide Prepare to Decide Exp(B)SigExp(B)Sig SocialIncome BackgroundEducation VariablesAge Married Children at Home Length of Residence RiskMobile Home, RV,Boat VariablesEvacuation Covers Home Neighbors Evacuate? Live in a Surge Zone Risk from Flooding Risk from Wind Constant Model Chi-Square(df) (6) (12) CV Block Chi-Square(df) (6) Risk Block Chi-Square(df) (6) (6) % Correct Predictions 58.5% 72.1% Cox & Snell R

Who prepares to ride out the storm? Table 5 Factor Influences Who Prepares to Ride Out the Storm Prepare to Stay Exp(B)SigExp(B)Sig SocialIncome BackgroundEducation VariablesAge Married Children at Home Length of Residence RiskMobile Home, RV,Boat VariablesEvacuation Covers Home Neighbors Evacuate? Live in a Surge Zone Risk from Flooding Risk from Wind Constant Model Chi-Square(df) (6) (12) CV Block Chi-Square(df) (6) Risk Block Chi-Square(df) (6) (12) % Correct Predictions 66.3% 68.8% Cox & Snell R

Conclusions -- Planning The risk variables show that people who know their home is covered by an Evacuation Order, whose Neighbors evacuate and who live in a Surge Zone, are more likely to have a plan. Income and Education increase the likelihood of having a plan and length of residence decreases it. When controlling for the background variables, Knowing that your home is covered by an evacuation order and having neighbors who evacuate still increase the likelihood of having a plan.

Conclusions -- Evacuating Living in a Mobile Home, knowing that an evacuation Order covers your home and having neighbors who evacuate increase the likelihood that a household will prepare to leave. Being married and length of residence decreases the likelihood that you will prepare to evacuate but having children living with you increases the likelihood. After controlling for the background variables, the same risk variables influence the likelihood of preparing to leave.

Conclusions-- Deciding Knowing that an evacuation order covers your home and living in a storm surge zone increases the likelihood of preparing to make a decision when a storm approaches. When other variables are controlled, length of residence, living in a storm surge zone increase the likelihood of preparing to make a decision while a higher subjective risk of wind damage decreases the likelihood

Conclusions – Riding Out the Storm Living in a risky structure, knowing that evacuation orders cover your home and having neighbors who evacuate decrease the likelihood that you will prepare to ride out the storm. When other variables are controlled, having children living in the home decreases the likelihood that you will prepare to ride out the storm while longer length of residence increases it. Living in a risky structure, knowing that your home is covered by evacuation orders, having neighbors who evacuate and living in a storm surge zone decreases the likelihood that folks will prepare to ride out the storm.

Acknowledgements “Hurricane Risk Perception and Emergency Communication Effectiveness in Coastal Zones” Catherine F. Smith, Donna J. Kain, Kenneth Wilson Research Assistants Michelle Covi, Douglas Solomon, and others Supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Sea Grant North Carolina and East Carolina University

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