LEAP, software and bulletins Peter Hoefsloot, consultant to WFP, FAO and World Bank

LEAP background  LEAP: a software platform to calculate weather based indexes  Based on simple idea: Rainfall affects to a large extend crop yields, which in turn affects livelihoods of the rural population.  LEAP uses as much as possible proven models and datasets.  LEAP is (up to now) Ethiopia-specific. China and other countries coming.  Final goal is trigger for insurance based risk financing.

LEAP is developed by  WFP Rome, initiator, insurance based risk financing  WFP/VAM in Addis, overall guidance, data delivary and feedback from the field  Local Consultants Addisu and Girma (crop and needs data)  World Bank finances, provides project management  NMA Ethiopia, provides data and feedback.  CSA and MoARD provide data  Several government bodies provide feedback

Data providers  National Meteorological Agency (rainfall and et0)  University of Reading (rainfall)  NOAA (rainfall estimates)  LEWS project (Livestock Early Warning System): Forage Maps  MoARD (crop and production data)  CSA (crop and needs data)  USGS (NDVI)  EUMETSAT Germany : Meteosat NDVI

LEAP principle

Design philosophy of LEAP software  Proven models : FAO Water Balance Model, Yield reduction model by Doorenbosch and Kassam etc.  Data from more than one source. E.G. Rainfall estimates from NOAA and rain gauge data from NMA. Combined to provide better estimates  Calculation basis: 10x10 km squares  Flexible number of crops (“basket”)  Dataset priority  Many “in between products” like rainfall estimates, planting dekads, WRSI, yield reduction, moisture index etc…  All input and output data exportable to Excel (aggregated by Country, Region, Zone, Woreda etc..)  Internet or mail update for new data

What has been done so far  First steps to LEAP (then called LPCI) three years ago  Software now contains a lot of functionality; Still some development in areas of the package.  100 page manual included  LEAP website :  Training has been provided in 4 workshops to over 50 Ethiopians.  Users: WFP, Rome & World Bank consultants, MoARD, NMA, FSCB, DPPA, and others

Continuously running LEAP activities  Providing new data to the LEAP community through internet download and mail: rainfall estimates NMA data integration (ET0 and rainfall) NDVI (vegetation greenness) Improved evapotranspiration data (from USGS global coverage)  Monthly LEAP bulletins in cropping season  Technical support through mail

LEAP bulletins  Monthly in Belg and Meher cropping seasons  Maps  Highlights

Still to do  Emphasis on making LEAP operational  Training trainers and software developers  Introduce improved crop calendars (from Addisu and Girma) before 2009 season starts  New boundaries of woredas, zones etc.  Introduce improved needs and beneficiary algorithms into LEAP.  Ensure continuous records. Some datasets have gaps

LEAP is free! Download from LEAP page  (program + data = 70MB) If you need data by mail rather than internet update, please send an e- mail to nl

Done recently

Download per dataset

Improved encryption of NMA data Is now converted to

Improved navigation between datasets

User defined color tables

USGS ET0 data (from global model) (To be improved with NMA and FAO data)

Visual menu

Dataset priority notification

Exporting Yield Reduction to Excel

USGS NDVI (vegetation greenness) Compared to Meteosat: lower resolution but much longer history Images for October 10, 2008

Still to do

New Woreda maps in LEAP

New crop calendars in LEAP before new season

The 2008 season

Belg Rainfall 2008

Meher rainfall 2008

Look closer at 2008 season  Belg Set dataset priority for crops to zonalbelg 2008 WRSI ZonalBelg output Maize_Belg Belg Mask  Meher Set dataset priority for crops to meher 2008 WRSI Meher Long cycle maize Meher MAsk Please note we used the provisional crop calendars

Rangeland (Somali and Afar) Cumulative Rainfall 2008NDVI October dekad 1, 2008

Conclusion 2008 season  Belg below normal in most areas. Many areas no planting opportunities  Meher mid-season Ok. Early retreat of the rains in the east  Rangeland conditions unfavourable in Somali and Afar

Discussion on next steps  Flash models?  Rangeland WRSI