Future Research Agenda Charles Hirschman University of Washington

Back to the Basics What is the research question? What is the research question? Dept. variable, hypothesisDept. variable, hypothesis Empirical description: Empirical description: Magnitude, trends, patternMagnitude, trends, pattern Model: Search for explanation Model: Search for explanation Natural history: origins and developmentNatural history: origins and development Prevalence, intensityPrevalence, intensity Implications for interventions Implications for interventions

Research Questions 1. Define and describe child migration Incidence, prevalence, circular, origin Incidence, prevalence, circular, origin 2. What are consequences of migration for children? Depends on type of migration: tied, solo, left behindDepends on type of migration: tied, solo, left behind What the counterfactual?What the counterfactual? Relative to what comparison group Relative to what comparison group

Additional Questions 3. Social Mobility of Children (by immigrant generation) in destination area 4a. Effects of child migration on non- migrants in sending area 4b. Effects of child migration on non- migrants in destination area

Measurement of Dept Variable(s) Absolute number Absolute number experience event in a periodexperience event in a period Ever (cumulative) experience eventEver (cumulative) experience event Return and repeat migration Return and repeat migration Ratio: (relative to a reference population) Ratio: (relative to a reference population) In destination areaIn destination area Total pop or non-migrants Total pop or non-migrants In origin area(s)In origin area(s) Total pop or non-migrants Total pop or non-migrants

More on Measurement Rate: defined as population experience event in a period relative to population (mid-year) exposed to risk of event Rate: defined as population experience event in a period relative to population (mid-year) exposed to risk of event Examples from Massey: Examples from Massey: Annual probability of first time migration of never migrants in originAnnual probability of first time migration of never migrants in origin Annual probability of return migration of ever migration in destinationAnnual probability of return migration of ever migration in destination Annual probability of repeat migration of returned migrantsAnnual probability of repeat migration of returned migrants

Preliminary Model of Consequences of Migration on Children UnderlyingConditionsMigrationFamily/Community Child Well Being

Define Universe by risk of stage of development (0-5, 6-12, 13-17) Define Universe by risk of stage of development (0-5, 6-12, 13-17) Outcomes of Interest: Outcomes of Interest: Health: status, risky behaviors, preventive contacts or treatmentHealth: status, risky behaviors, preventive contacts or treatment Education: enrollment, attainment, masteryEducation: enrollment, attainment, mastery

Family/Community Proximate Variables Influencing Child Well-Being Prior to migration & change following migration: Prior to migration & change following migration: Family Economic StatusFamily Economic Status Family StructureFamily Structure Community Resources (clinics, schools)Community Resources (clinics, schools)

Migration Patterns Migration of unattached adults Migration of unattached adults Solo migration of parents Solo migration of parents Family migration Family migration Solo migration of children Solo migration of children To join parentsTo join parents To join relativesTo join relatives For schoolingFor schooling Into bondageInto bondage

Underlying Conditions Poverty: absolute or relative Poverty: absolute or relative Population density relative to resources Population density relative to resources Spatial inequality Spatial inequality Developmental change (Commercial agriculture, wage labor, ideational changes) Developmental change (Commercial agriculture, wage labor, ideational changes) Labor Recruitment Labor Recruitment Family/friends in destination areas Family/friends in destination areas Immigration policies Immigration policies

Some speculative thoughts Family economic status will be key link to child well being Family economic status will be key link to child well being Major problems of children in LDC’s stem from underlying conditions Major problems of children in LDC’s stem from underlying conditions Migration can create new problems for children (esp. in vulnerable families), but generally, it is solution Migration can create new problems for children (esp. in vulnerable families), but generally, it is solution

Implications for Policies Need to be aligned with history Need to be aligned with history Migration is natural and inevitable part of developmentMigration is natural and inevitable part of development Special treatment or set asides create popular resentments Special treatment or set asides create popular resentments Fairness in access to markets, such as labor, schooling, housing, credit is more acceptable Fairness in access to markets, such as labor, schooling, housing, credit is more acceptable