Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-CRM)

CA-DRM Elements Component 1: Develop Climate Risk Assessment Methodology Component 2: Testing the methodology developed in a select CA country Component 3: Develop recommendations for Climate Change Risk Management Planning in the pilot country Component 4: Knowledge Sharing and Communication Oct 12Risk Meeting Alamty2

Disaster Risk Management Variability Change Society Exposure Climat e Risk Vulnerability Climate Change Management Weather and Climate Events Oct 12Risk Meeting Alamty3 Outcome Management

CA CRA Overview Core Approaches Core Elements Outcome-based assessment of climate events Perception-based assessment of climate outcome consequences and management options Risk (vulnerability) for a specific combination of hazard intensity at a location (exposure), and vulnerability (sensitivity), in monetary value of expected physical damage per capita for an event of a specific frequency (exposure) Hazard impact defined by historical damage Vulnerability (sensitivity) defined by outcomes for six areas of livelihoods “capitals” Risk management preferences on the part of at-risk populations Oct 12Risk Meeting Alamty4

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Collecting Disaster Data The Historical Data Approach Collecting outcome data for past climate events. Future outcomes defined using expert advice and models. Advantages Used disaster outcome reports completed after most disasters Challenges Only covers reported disasters Not necessarily good predictor of future disasters. Reports may not identify all outcomes on vulnerabilities, or include only partial data The Empirical Research Approach Field and laboratory research to define the vulnerability outcomes from each hazard. Advantages: ― Yields a more detailed and precise understanding risk Challenges — Is not quick or easy to complete. — Needs considerable time and resources Oct 12Risk Meeting Alamty6

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate Hazards Type of Capital Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk Populations InsignificantLowMediumHighExtreme HumanNo negative outcome on health. Temporary negative outcome on health; no deaths. Limited, short term negative outcome on health; few deaths. Extensive negative outcome on health; deaths above disaster threshold Significant negative health outcomes and deaths. FinancialNo loss income or financial assets Temporary loss of work. Loss of work extended for several months. Significant loss of work. Near total loss of income and financial assets SocialNo need for reliance on social network for support. Occasional reliance on social network for support. Heavy reliance on social network for support, for only 1-3 months. More than a year reliance on social network for support. Total reliance on social network for basic needs. NaturalNo damage to natural resources. Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs. Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs. Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs. No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access. PoliticalFull government engagement in response to event. Minor gaps in government response. Some government assistance but significant unmet needs. Very limited response to event. No government response to event. Oct 12Risk Meeting Alamty7

Risk Perception Assessment Individual or focus group process 20 questions – can be increased Target – 30 minute session; quick data processing. “Willingness to pay” – new an approach; has advantages in understanding risk management preferences How to do the survey? (Can even be done on web) Some skills and training needed Oct 12Risk Meeting Alamty8

Outputs/Inputs Climate Risk Analytical Frameworks Hazard/frequency/outcome combinations (e.g., flooding/1:10 years/cost per person per year and quantitative outcomes) summaries in report through tables and narrative Frameworks annexed to the report Summary of the methodology used Gender, age, health status and other issues summarized Perception Survey Methodology Summary of the results, with specific examples highlighting key results. More extensive report annexed to the main report. Synthesis of Results Draws conclusions as to data-based and perception-based outcomes Identifies areas where risk management would be most effective. Focuses on Reducing the per capital cost of risks, starting with the greatest per capita costs, Areas of greatest likelihood of support for risk management actions by the affected populations. Oct 12Risk Meeting Alamty9

E-atlas data Basic data Hazard data Vulnerability dataClimate change dataNext step

Example of vulnerability indicators Example: human vulnerability indicator against flood Human vulnerability against flood index = Hazard (Flood area) x CC (Rainfall Pattern) x Vulnerability (population density) General indicators: Human vulnerability: Economic vulnerability Specific indicator s: By type of hazards By type of economic sectors Basic data Hazard data Vulnerability dataClimate change data Next step

Scaling Capital Outcome for Climate Hazards Type of Capital Level of Vulnerability Outcome in Relation to At Risk Populations InsignificantLowMediumHighExtreme HumanNo negative outcome on health. Temporary negative outcome on health; no deaths. Limited, short term negative outcome on health; few deaths. Extensive negative outcome on health; deaths above disaster threshold Significant negative health outcomes and deaths. FinancialNo loss income or financial assets Temporary loss of work. Loss of work extended for several months. Significant loss of work. Near total loss of income and financial assets SocialNo need for reliance on social network for support. Occasional reliance on social network for support. Heavy reliance on social network for support, for only 1- 3 months. More than a year reliance on social network for support. Total reliance on social network for basic needs. NaturalNo damage to natural resources. Temporary reduced access to natural resources needed for basic needs. Reduced access to natural resources for 3-4 months needed to meet normal needs. Extended reduced access to natural resources needed to meet normal needs. No access to natural resources due to damage or change in location or access. PoliticalFull government engagement in response to event. Minor gaps in government response. Some government assistance but significant unmet needs. Very limited response to event. No government response to event. Apples and Oranges Oct 12Risk Meeting Alamty12

Comparing the Different Oct 12Risk Meeting Alamty13

Oct 12Risk Meeting Alamty14 S (area of triangle) = ½ · a· b · sin Angle Triangle (2 capitals)Area 1Area 2Area 3 Human-Financial­­ Financial-Social Social-Natural Natural-Physical Physical-Political Political-Human Tot. area Rank213

Challenges Data: Disasters - access, accuracy, detail Weather - access, accuracy for local conditions Presumption of Climate Risk-Outcome links Is Past Prologue ? -- Impacts of a Changing Climate Silos and Synthesis Practical Application Oct 12Risk Meeting Alamty15

Camp Alatoo and UNDP Multi-Country Climate Risk Management Programme (CA-CRM)