1 Challenge the future Novel load forecasting technique for three time- horizons in electric power system Swasti R. Khuntia

2 Challenge the future Thesis Factsheet Title of thesis: Novel load forecasting technique for three time-horizons in electric power system Name of student: Swasti R. Khuntia Start Date / End Date: 10/04/2014 – 09/04/2018 (Expected) Departments involved: Electrical Sustainable Energy (formal) and Applied Probability (informal) Supervisor(s): Dr. –Ing. Jose L. Rueda Promotor(s): Prof. Mart A. M. M. van der Meijden Companies and funding agencies involved: EU FP7 Project comprising of 20 partners (8 industries and 12 universities) Associated Project Title: GARPUR (Generally Accepted Reliability Principle with Uncertainty modelling and through probabilistic Risk assessment) [

3 Challenge the future Thesis content Motivation European power system reliability management surviving on ‘N- 1’ criterion Time to upgrade the reliability criterion Demand-side uncertainty Intermittent energy sources Part of the project involved, it aims at socio-economic benefits Research question “Designing, developing, assessing, and evaluating new reliability criteria” My contribution: Load forecast model for three time-horizons using novel data mining technique

4 Challenge the future Thesis content Leader: T5.2 and T6.2 Contributor: T2.3, T2.4 T4.2, T4.3 T5.1, T5.3, T5.4 T6.3, T6.4 T7.2, T7.3 T9.1

5 Challenge the future Thesis challenge Difficulty in modeling for three time-horizons Data uncertainty Upgrading the existing reliability criterion Driving factor: Project implementation in pan-European level in next decade

6 Challenge the future Methodology Literature study on “Understanding the three time-horizons” in electrical transmission system Literature study on “Asset management in electrical transmission system” Literature study on “Existing methodology used in participating TSOs” [continuing] Power flow study on Bayesian Network One of the most efficient probabilistic graphical models to represent uncertainty and inferences thereof Nothing much done in load forecast area for three time-horizons Trying to assess the usability and planning to design a “hybrid” model

7 Challenge the future Project Plan Literature WP5, 6 Test-case study Writing Thesis Implementation/Validation 04/ /2018

8 Challenge the future