Comparison of GHG mitigation efforts between Annex 1 countries Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Objectives Impartial, coherent and transparent comparison of GHG mitigation potentials and costs in Annex 1 countries –using a multi-disciplinary systems approach, –based on publicly available data, –taking into account co-benefits on air pollution, –independent assessment, financed through IIASA’s core funds. Results, input data and an interactive calculator freely available in the public domain:

Methodology Bottom-up approach: all gases and sectors, at detailed technical level (several 100 source categories, 300+ mitigation measures, etc.) systems approach (integrated perspective covering demand and supply sectors), consistent with UNFCCC 2005 inventories, employing exogenous activity projections, technical, economic and market potentials (before trading). Based on earlier work with IIASA’s GAINS (Greenhouse gas – Air pollution Interactions and Synergies) model

Marginal cost curves for each Party Japan USA EU27 Russia Interest rate: 20%

An initial implementation For largest Annex 1 countries (98% of 1990 emissions), EU27 presented in aggregate Based on activity projections of IEA World Energy Outlook 2008 and FAO World Agriculture Perspective Key assumptions: –Only currently available technologies –Natural turnover of capital stock, no premature scrapping –No behavioural changes –Domestic measures only –LULUCF excluded for now Initial analysis compiled from publicly available information, received only limited review by national experts up to now

Baseline GHG emissions projections for IEA WEO2008 projection Analysis not completed yet for: Belarus, Croatia, Turkey, Cyprus, Malta

Total costs for GHG mitigation, Annex 1, 2020 for different interest rates (excl. LULUCF)

Total cost curves for 2020 (% of GDP) (10% interest rate, excl. LULUCF) AUS NZ CA NO US CH JP EU RU UKR

Comparison of mitigation efforts for a 16.5% reduction of total Annex 1 emissions Efficiency vs. equity AU CA EU JP NZ NO RU CH UKR US Change Per- Carbon Costs Costs per- to 1990 capita price % GDP capita AU CA EU JP NZ NO RU CH UKR US Change Per- Carbon Costs Costs per- to 1990 capita price % GDP capita AU CA EU JP NZ NO RU CH UKR US Change Per- Carbon Costs Costs per- to 1990 capita price % GDP capita AU CA EU JP NZ NO RU CH UKR US Change Per- Carbon Costs Costs per- to 1990 capita price % GDP capita

On-line calculator on the Internet

Co-benefits on air pollutant emissions Annex 1, 2020

The GAINS calculator refers to Annex 1 measures only Estimates for other countries are available GHG mitigation cost curves for China, 2020 (GAINS-Asia estimates for 4% interest rate) Marginal costs Co-benefits on air pollution Total costs

Conclusions IIASA’s GAINS analysis: –Coherent and impartial comparison of mitigation efforts –Analysis based on publicly available data –Transparency: Open access to results and all input data: –Review workshop in May/June 2009 The analysis quantifies impacts of objective reasons for differences in mitigation efforts. Different equity criteria deliver different rankings of countries. The GAINS calculator provides a practical tool for comparing mitigation efforts along multiple criteria.