October Lake Effect Snow in Reno Gina McGuire. What happened on October 10, 2008 in Reno/Sparks? Lake effect snow was expected and did develop off of.

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Presentation transcript:

October Lake Effect Snow in Reno Gina McGuire

What happened on October 10, 2008 in Reno/Sparks? Lake effect snow was expected and did develop off of both Pyramid Lake and Lake Tahoe on Oct. 10 th Lake effect snow was expected and did develop off of both Pyramid Lake and Lake Tahoe on Oct. 10 th A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the Reno zone between 6am and 6pm (for 1-2 inches of snow) A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the Reno zone between 6am and 6pm (for 1-2 inches of snow) Lake Effect Snow Advisory was issued for Lake Tahoe between 11am and 11pm (for 2 to 6 inches of snow) Lake Effect Snow Advisory was issued for Lake Tahoe between 11am and 11pm (for 2 to 6 inches of snow) The main airport affected was Reno International Airport, as the flow was more northeast over the lakes The main airport affected was Reno International Airport, as the flow was more northeast over the lakes TVL was only impacted minimally and for a short duration TVL was only impacted minimally and for a short duration This presentation will focus on Reno This presentation will focus on Reno

Reno TAFs KRNO Z KT P6SM SCT060 BKN150 FM G20KT P6SM -SHSN SCT030 BKN040 TEMPO SM -SHSN BKN020 OVC030 FM KT P6SM SCT050 BKN080 FM KT P6SM VCSH OVC040 KRNO Z KT P6SM SCT060 BKN150 FM G20KT P6SM -SHSN SCT030 BKN040 TEMPO SM -SHSN BKN020 OVC030 FM KT P6SM SCT050 BKN080 FM KT P6SM VCSH OVC040 KRNO Z 35009KT 10SM SCT065 02/M08 A2992 RMK A02 SLP120 T = KRNO Z 35009KT 10SM SCT065 02/M08 A2992 RMK A02 SLP120 T = So, what happens at 14Z?? KRN Z 34011G18KT 10SM –SN BKN046 OVC065 01/M06 A2991 RMK A02 SNB52 SLP121 P0000 T = KRN Z 34011G18KT 10SM –SN BKN046 OVC065 01/M06 A2991 RMK A02 SNB52 SLP121 P0000 T = What would you do with the forecast right now… if anything?

The TAF was revised… KRNO AMD Z G20KT P6SM -SHSN SCT030 BKN040 TEMPO SM -SHSN BKN020 OVC030 FM KT P6SM SCT050 BKN080 FM KT P6SM VCSH OVC040 KRNO AMD Z G20KT P6SM -SHSN SCT030 BKN040 TEMPO SM -SHSN BKN020 OVC030 FM KT P6SM SCT050 BKN080 FM KT P6SM VCSH OVC040 What happened between 14Z and 18Z? KRNO Z 34012G20KT 10SM HZ BKN047 OVC055 01/M06 A2992 RMK AO2 SNE02B23E48 SLP125 MTN TOPS OBSCD SW-NW P T KRNO Z 34012G20KT 10SM HZ BKN047 OVC055 01/M06 A2992 RMK AO2 SNE02B23E48 SLP125 MTN TOPS OBSCD SW-NW P T KRNO Z 31013KT 9SM BKN050 OVC070 02/M06 A2993 RMK AO2 SNB04E53 SLP134 MTNS OBSCD SW-NW P0000 T = KRNO Z 31013KT 9SM BKN050 OVC070 02/M06 A2993 RMK AO2 SNB04E53 SLP134 MTNS OBSCD SW-NW P0000 T = KRNO Z 36010KT 10SM SCT050 BKN070 OVC100 03/M07 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP134 VCSH MTNS OBSCD SW-NW T = KRNO Z 36010KT 10SM SCT050 BKN070 OVC100 03/M07 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP134 VCSH MTNS OBSCD SW-NW T = KRNO Z 34008KT 10SM -SN BKN040 OVC050 02/M07 A2995 RMK AO2 SNB51 SLP142 MTNS OBSCD ALQDS P T KRNO Z 34008KT 10SM -SN BKN040 OVC050 02/M07 A2995 RMK AO2 SNB51 SLP142 MTNS OBSCD ALQDS P T

Good amendment or unnecessary? Time to issue 18Z TAF… What was happening when this TAF was issued?? KRNO Z 36010KT 10SM SCT050 BKN070 OVC100 03/M07 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP134 VCSH MTNS OBSCD SW-NW T = KRNO Z 36010KT 10SM SCT050 BKN070 OVC100 03/M07 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP134 VCSH MTNS OBSCD SW-NW T = KRNO Z 34008KT 10SM -SN BKN040 OVC050 02/M07 A2995 RMK AO2 SNB51 SLP142 MTNS OBSCD ALQDS P T KRNO Z 34008KT 10SM -SN BKN040 OVC050 02/M07 A2995 RMK AO2 SNB51 SLP142 MTNS OBSCD ALQDS P T What did the radar look like at 1740Z when the TAF needed to be issued?

What would you put in the 18Z TAF?? Here’s the TAF that was issued… agree/disagree? KRNO Z G20KT P6SM -SHSN BKN035 BKN050 TEMPO SM -SHSN BKN020 OVC030 FM G24KT P6SM -SHSN BKN040 FM KT P6SM VCSH OVC040 FM KT P6SM VCSH BKN040 OVC080 FM KT P6SM SCT050 BKN120 KRNO Z G20KT P6SM -SHSN BKN035 BKN050 TEMPO SM -SHSN BKN020 OVC030 FM G24KT P6SM -SHSN BKN040 FM KT P6SM VCSH OVC040 FM KT P6SM VCSH BKN040 OVC080 FM KT P6SM SCT050 BKN120 So, what happened after the TAF was issued? KRNO Z 34008KT 10SM -SN BKN040 OVC050 02/M07 A2995 RMK AO2 SNB51 SLP142 MTNS OBSCD ALQDS P T KRNO Z 34008KT 10SM -SN BKN040 OVC050 02/M07 A2995 RMK AO2 SNB51 SLP142 MTNS OBSCD ALQDS P T KRNO Z 35008KT 9SM BKN027 OVC034 02/M07 A2995 RMK AO2 SNE1757 P0000= KRNO Z 35008KT 9SM BKN027 OVC034 02/M07 A2995 RMK AO2 SNE1757 P0000= KRNO Z 01011KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN023 OVC036 02/M04 A2996 RMK AO2 P0000= KRNO Z 01011KT 2 1/2SM -SN BKN023 OVC036 02/M04 A2996 RMK AO2 P0000= KRNO Z 01008KT 1 1/4SM -SN BKN020 01/M03 A2996 RMK AO2 P0000= KRNO Z 01008KT 1 1/4SM -SN BKN020 01/M03 A2996 RMK AO2 P0000= KRNO Z 02007KT 1/2SM SN VV015 01/M02 A2996 RMK AO2 P0000= KRNO Z 02007KT 1/2SM SN VV015 01/M02 A2996 RMK AO2 P0000= Based on the radar, was this a surprise? Why? What’s the next step?

Time to amend! KRNO AMD Z G20KT 2SM -SHSN VV015 TEMPO /2SM SHSN VV008 FM G24KT P6SM -SHSN BKN040 FM KT P6SM VCSH OVC040 FM KT P6SM VCSH BKN040 OVC080 FM KT P6SM SCT050 BKN120 KRNO AMD Z G20KT 2SM -SHSN VV015 TEMPO /2SM SHSN VV008 FM G24KT P6SM -SHSN BKN040 FM KT P6SM VCSH OVC040 FM KT P6SM VCSH BKN040 OVC080 FM KT P6SM SCT050 BKN120 Let’s see how the radar looked from 18Z-22Z…

Let’s see what the METARs showed KRNO Z 03007KT 1/2SM SN FG FEW007 OVC011 00/M02 A2997 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 1/4 SLP152 P0002 T = KRNO Z 03007KT 1/2SM SN FG FEW007 OVC011 00/M02 A2997 RMK AO2 TWR VIS 1 1/4 SLP152 P0002 T = KRNO Z 31006KT 1/2SM SN FG BKN005 OVC010 00/M01 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP153 P0002 T = KRNO Z 31006KT 1/2SM SN FG BKN005 OVC010 00/M01 A2997 RMK AO2 SLP153 P0002 T = KRNO Z 00000KT 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 00/M01 A2996 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 SLP150 P T = KRNO Z 00000KT 1/2SM -SN BR BKN007 OVC013 00/M01 A2996 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 SLP150 P T = KRNO Z 35006KT 10SM SCT011 BKN028 OVC065 02/M01 A2995 RMK AO2 SNE41 SLP146 MTN TOPS OBSCD ALQDS P0001 T = KRNO Z 35006KT 10SM SCT011 BKN028 OVC065 02/M01 A2995 RMK AO2 SNE41 SLP146 MTN TOPS OBSCD ALQDS P0001 T = Verdict?? Good or bad amendment?? Verdict?? Good or bad amendment?? Good! Good! What did it look like outside during this time??? What did it look like outside during this time???

Pyramid Highway and McCarren

Reno NWS Office

Picnic Table at NWS Reno overlooking the Reno Airport

Now it’s time for the 00Z TAF…what did the radar look like at 2340Z?Now it’s time for the 00Z TAF…what did the radar look like at 2340Z?

What did you observe about the radar image? What did you observe about the radar image? What would you have put in the 00Z TAF? What would you have put in the 00Z TAF? Here’s the 00Z TAF.. Here’s the 00Z TAF.. KRNO Z KT 2SM -SHSN BKN012 BKN025 TEMPO /2SM SHSN BKN008 BKN012 FM KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN035 TEMPO SM -SHSN BKN015 FM KT P6SM VCSH SCT020 BKN040 FM KT P6SM SCT020 SCT050 FM G22KT P6SM BKN045 KRNO Z KT 2SM -SHSN BKN012 BKN025 TEMPO /2SM SHSN BKN008 BKN012 FM KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN035 TEMPO SM -SHSN BKN015 FM KT P6SM VCSH SCT020 BKN040 FM KT P6SM SCT020 SCT050 FM G22KT P6SM BKN045 What do you think of the TAF compared to the radar? Why 2SM –SHSN for 3 hours in the main body of the first line? Why 2SM –SHSN for 3 hours in the main body of the first line? Why TEMPO 1/2SM SHSN for 3 hours? Why TEMPO 1/2SM SHSN for 3 hours? Now it’s an hour later…let’s see what the radar looked like…

Here’s what the METAR at 2355Z looked like: Here’s what the METAR at 2355Z looked like: KRNO Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT050 BKN065 OVC090 02/M02 A2995 RMK AO2 SNB08E36 SLP144 MTN TOPS OBSCD ALQDS P KRNO Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT050 BKN065 OVC090 02/M02 A2995 RMK AO2 SNB08E36 SLP144 MTN TOPS OBSCD ALQDS P What would you do next, if anything? What would you do next, if anything? If you chose to amend, what would you have changed? Let’s look at the 00Z TAF again… If you chose to amend, what would you have changed? Let’s look at the 00Z TAF again… KRNO Z KT 2SM -SHSN BKN012 BKN025 TEMPO /2SM SHSN BKN008 BKN012 FM KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN035 TEMPO SM -SHSN BKN015 FM KT P6SM VCSH SCT020 BKN040 FM KT P6SM SCT020 SCT050 FM G22KT P6SM BKN045 KRNO Z KT 2SM -SHSN BKN012 BKN025 TEMPO /2SM SHSN BKN008 BKN012 FM KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN035 TEMPO SM -SHSN BKN015 FM KT P6SM VCSH SCT020 BKN040 FM KT P6SM SCT020 SCT050 FM G22KT P6SM BKN045 Here’s an amendment that went out 40 minutes later… Here’s an amendment that went out 40 minutes later… KRNO AMD Z KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 SCT050 BKN070 TEMPO /2SM SHSN BKN008 BKN012 FM KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN035 TEMPO SM -SHSN BKN015 FM KT P6SM VCSH SCT020 BKN040 FM KT P6SM SCT020 SCT050 FM G22KT P6SM BKN045 KRNO AMD Z KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 SCT050 BKN070 TEMPO /2SM SHSN BKN008 BKN012 FM KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN035 TEMPO SM -SHSN BKN015 FM KT P6SM VCSH SCT020 BKN040 FM KT P6SM SCT020 SCT050 FM G22KT P6SM BKN045 Let’s look at the METARS from 00Z until 06Z…

KRNO Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT050 BKN065 OVC090 02/M02 A2995 RMK AO2 SNB08E36 SLP144 MTN TOPS OBSCD ALQDS P KRNO Z AUTO 00000KT 10SM SCT050 BKN065 OVC090 02/M02 A2995 RMK AO2 SNB08E36 SLP144 MTN TOPS OBSCD ALQDS P KRNO Z 00000KT 10SM SCT050 BKN075 03/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP140 MTN TOPS OBSCD DSNT SW T = KRNO Z 00000KT 10SM SCT050 BKN075 03/M03 A2993 RMK AO2 SLP140 MTN TOPS OBSCD DSNT SW T = KRNO Z 04005KT 7SM -SN BKN041 BKN065 02/M03 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB38E39SNB39 SLP145 MTN TOPS OBSCD DSNT SW E P0000= KRNO Z 04005KT 7SM -SN BKN041 BKN065 02/M03 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB38E39SNB39 SLP145 MTN TOPS OBSCD DSNT SW E P0000= KRNO Z 00000KT 10SM BKN070 BKN085 02/M03 A2994 RMK AO2 SNE0158 SLP147 P T = KRNO Z 00000KT 10SM BKN070 BKN085 02/M03 A2994 RMK AO2 SNE0158 SLP147 P T = KRNO Z 32007KT 10SM BKN055 BKN070 03/M06 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP145 T = KRNO Z 32007KT 10SM BKN055 BKN070 03/M06 A2995 RMK AO2 SLP145 T = KRNO Z 36015G18KT 10SM SCT047 BKN060 BKN090 03/M05 A2994 RMK AO2 PK WND 32026/0428 SNB31E42 SLP140 P0000 T = KRNO Z 36015G18KT 10SM SCT047 BKN060 BKN090 03/M05 A2994 RMK AO2 PK WND 32026/0428 SNB31E42 SLP140 P0000 T = KRNO Z 36009KT 8SM -SN BKN027 OVC042 02/M04 A2995 RMK AO2 SNB28 P0000= KRNO Z 36009KT 8SM -SN BKN027 OVC042 02/M04 A2995 RMK AO2 SNB28 P0000= KRNO Z 11006KT 10SM FEW027 OVC040 01/M03 A2994 RMK AO2 SNB28E47 SLP145 P T = KRNO Z 11006KT 10SM FEW027 OVC040 01/M03 A2994 RMK AO2 SNB28E47 SLP145 P T =

Good amendment or bad? Good amendment or bad? Would you have amended before 06Z? Would you have amended before 06Z? No amendment was issued… 06Z TAF went out… No amendment was issued… 06Z TAF went out… How did we verify???

POD/FAR For RNO TAF Scheduled TAFs ONLY - Ceilings < 1000 feet, Visibility < 3SM Scheduled TAFs ONLY - Ceilings < 1000 feet, Visibility < 3SM –POD – 0.00 –FAR – 1.00 Scheduled and Amended TAFs – Cigs < 1000 feet, Vis < 3SM Scheduled and Amended TAFs – Cigs < 1000 feet, Vis < 3SM –POD – 0.35 –FAR – 0.84 AMENDMENTS IMPROVED OUR SCORES!!

POD/FAR For RNO TAF Scheduled TAFs ONLY - Ceilings < 3000 feet, Visibility < 5SM Scheduled TAFs ONLY - Ceilings < 3000 feet, Visibility < 5SM –POD – 0.80 –FAR – 0.68 Scheduled and Amended TAFs – Cigs < 3000 feet, Vis < 5SM Scheduled and Amended TAFs – Cigs < 3000 feet, Vis < 5SM –POD – 0.70 –FAR – 0.67 AMENDMENTS DID NOT IMPROVE OUR SCORES!!