Jose Luis Samaniego Sustainable and Human Settlements Division Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, CEPAL From Research to Policy Making: CO2, Inequality and private transport Paris – November, 3, 2015

Uruguay: can´t go beyond….because of cities and transport. 94% of electricity is already renewable

Latin America (selected cities): concentrations of PM2.5 and air quality standards, 2011 (Micrograms per cubic meter) Source: ECLAC, (2014), The Economics of Climate Change in Latin America and the Caribbean Health carrying capacity is surpassed in many cities already, and worsening

The future promises difficulties and small margins for improvement in BAU Relationship between the rate of motor vehicle use and per capita GDP in developed countries and Latin American countries, a (Motor vehicles per 1,000 persons and PPP dollars at constant 2005 prices) Source: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), on the basis of World Bank, World Development Indicators. a The upper limit corresponds to countries such as Australia, Italy, Spain and the United States. The lower limit corresponds to Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway. The black arrows indicate possible trends depending on what growth style the region adopts; they are not projections.

Focalized origin of externalities, local (emissions and congestion) and global (CO2e) Latin America (9 countries): household spending on fuel for transport (gasoline, diesel, biodiesel), as a proportion of total household spending and as a proportion of total spending on fuel for transport, by income quintile (Percentages) Source: ECLAC, (2014), Compacts for Equality Towards a Sustainable Future Participation of quintile in total consumption of transport fuels. Right axis.

Taxing all to subsidize the few Source: Own elaboration base on data from the Socio-Economic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEDLAS and The World Bank) Car ownership, by income quintiles Source: Own elaboration based on data from Fossil fuel consumption subsidy (to full cost of supply) as % of GDP

Our urban “annex 1”: consumption inequality is worse than income distribution. Gini index: total spending on fuel for transport Source: ECLAC, 2015 based on data from national income and expenditure surveys Lorenz curve: total spending on fuel for transport

A window of opportunity for a progressive and inclusive policy 1.Car ownership and gasoline consumption are still very unequal; policy can be progressive. 2. Policy affects consumption (of high deciles), not production (the usual “developing country” disguise). 3.Difficult politically. Decile 10 makes externalities, policy, laws, public opinion and the short term agenda. Deciles 1 to 8 may help win elections. 4.Difficult technically. The bridge between private transportation discouragemente (pricing externalities, with limits) and public transportation radical improvement (investment policy, also with prices on externalities) has to be constructed, and is an economic motor, is climate friendly, is inclusive and enhances social cohesion.

Jose Luis Samaniego Sustainable and Human Settlements Division Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Paris – November 3, 2015