1 Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) Project Status Steve Sandford – Mission Formulation Manager July 6, 2010

2 CLARREO = Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory CLARREO was recommended as a top priority for NASA by the National Academy of Science –CLARREO is one of the four highest priority “Tier 1” missions identified in the Decadal Survey CLARREO – The Next Step in Climate Observation CLARREO will be the cornerstone of the Climate Observing System –Long-term trend detection (decadal scale, ~0.2% per decade) –Improvement and testing of climate predictions –Calibration of operational and research sensors

3 Science Objectives –Make highly accurate and SI-traceable decadal scale change observations sensitive to the most critical but least understood climate radiative forcings, responses and feedbacks  Infrared spectra to infer temperature and water vapor feedbacks, cloud feedbacks, and decadal change of temperature profiles, water vapor profiles, clouds, and greenhouse gas radiative effects  GNSS radio occultation (RO) to infer decadal change of temperature profiles  Solar reflected spectra to infer cloud feedbacks, snow/ice albedo feedbacks, and decadal change of clouds, radiative fluxes, aerosols, snow cover, sea ice, and land use  Serve as an in-orbit standard to provide Reference Inter-calibration for broadband CERES, and operational sounders (VIIRs, CrIS, IASI) Societal Benefits –Enable knowledgeable policy decisions based on internationally acknowledged climate measurements and models through:  Observation of high accuracy long-term climate change trends  Use of long-term climate change observations to test and improve climate forecasts CLARREO Science and Societal Benefits

4 CLARREO is reformulating the mission in response to the schedule guidance and budget profile that was released in early 2010 The schedule guidance stipulates that CLARREO shall be comprised of two launch opportunities, rather than the single launch opportunity previously baselined –CLARREO 1 to be launched in 2017 –CLARREO 2 to be launched in 2020 The current budget profile will not support the previously mission architecture in which two observatories are launched in late 2016/early 2017 with each observatory carrying all the instruments In response to the new schedule and budget guidance, the CLARREO team has been examining mission concepts that provide the most science within the schedule and budget constraints Reformulation as a Budget Profile-driven Mission

5 The full value of CLARREO will only be achieved through the combination of the IR, RS, and RO measurements –CLARREO-1 and CLARREO-2 are both necessary to achieve the complete set of science goals Design principles –Maintain a commitment to the complete set of science objectives (CLARREO-1 and CLARREO-2) –Optimize science return –Begin the complete set of CLARREO measurements as soon as possible within the budget profile constraints –Explore cost-saving mission architecture options and partnership contributions –Plan for sustainability CLARREO Mission Implementation Strategy

6 Mission concepts and strategies under consideration to reduce cost, adhere to the schedule guidance, and improve science return 1.Fly one spectrometer plus GNSS RO in 2017, and then both spectrometers and GNSS RO in 2020  Initial estimates show that this mission concept will meet the budget and schedule constraints, but with minimal cost reserves  Meeting the budget and schedule constraints with this architecture is not sensitive to which spectrometer flies first in Maintain parallel development of both spectrometers  The budget profile does not allow for CLARREO to fly both spectrometers in 2017, but we are investigating options for one of the spectrometers to fly as an “instrument of opportunity” on another mission  Small amounts of funding need to be freed up in FY’11 and FY’12 to maintain development of both spectrometers in order for this strategy to be viable 3.Pursue spacecraft and launch vehicle cost reductions  Low-cost spacecraft may be available through the new RSDO Rapid-III contract  Configure the observatories to be compatible with a Falcon 1e launch vehicle and continue to pursue the Minotaur IV launch vehicle  Investigate possibilities of contributed spacecraft and launch vehicles Reformulation as a Budget Profile-driven Mission

7 Mission Concept for MCR If necessary, the selection of the spectrometer for CLARREO-1 in 2017 will be deferred until late spring 2011( mid point of Phase A) –Deferring the spectrometer selection preserves parallel instrument breadboard development while the project continues to pursue opportunities to fly both spectrometers in 2017 –Provides the project with a viable alternative to meeting the CLARREO-1 launch schedule should one of the instruments encounter unanticipated technology development delays. –Ensures that both instruments will be fully developed for CLARREO-2 in 2020 to guarantee the earliest start of CLARREO’s complete climate record –Low risk approach: –The mission concept is the same regardless of which spectrometer flies in 2017 –The infrared and reflected solar observatories use the same spacecraft bus –Project cost and schedule are not sensitive to which spectrometer flies in 2017 Payload CBE Mass (kg) Payload CBE Power (W) SSR Capacity (Gbits) Infrared Observatory Reflected Solar Observatory

8 Engage all key stakeholders –Science Definition Team, MCR Board, NASA management –Reach agreement on process, schedule, and decision criteria Document science status –Science value matrix –CLARREO Pre-Phase A Science Report  SDT review after selection of team members –Use time in Phase A to address any outstanding questions Document Instrument Development status –Develop Instrument Development Plans with peer review –Phase A breadboards and IIPs to address outstanding questions Decision scheduled for mid Phase A –SRR readiness is key driver to decision schedule –Decision may be sooner if milestones are not reached or if continuation of 2 instruments drives unacceptable cost/schedule risk Process for Phase A Instrument Decision

9 Mission Concept for MCR Mission Concept Strategies: –One spectrometer will fly on each observatory –Observatories will be configured around a small, common spacecraft bus to reduce cost –Observatories are compatible with Falcon 1e, Athena, Taurus XL, and Minotaur IV –Observatories will have selective redundancy –Uncontrolled post-mission de-orbit 2017 Launch: –One observatory with one spectrometer (either the infrared or the reflected solar) plus RO –Polar orbit (90° inclination) at 609 km altitude 2020 Launches: –Two observatories, one with the infrared spectrometer and one with the reflected solar spectrometer (both with GNSS-RO) –Polar orbits (90° inclination) at 609 km altitude Reflected Solar Observatory Infrared Observatory

10 Key Tasks and Milestones to MCR Science Team Mtg. (STM) July 6-9 Instrument Development Plans CompleteJuly 16 Instrument Peer Reviews July MCR Concept Finalized Aug 10 Instrument Description DocumentsAug 13 Observatory Peer Review Aug 19 Independent Cost Estimate Reconciled Sep 14 Peer Reviews Sep 9 – 15 MCR Data Drop Sep 28 MCR Rehearsal Oct 5 MCR Oct 14 Nominal MCR Milestone Schedule

11 Master Schedule to MCR

12 The Science Team is essential to provide the overall understanding and status of our ability to conduct the IR/RS/RO measurements and achieve CLARREO’s science objectives The current Science Team has contributed considerably in preparing this mission for implementation –Documenting the current status of CLARREO science is extremely important for Phase A planning –Defining the science value matrix will enable the Project to optimize science return Educating the broader science and policy communities and the public on the need for CLARREO How the Science Team can Contribute

13 Reformulation of the CLARREO mission concept is in progress to adhere to the budget and schedule guidance The reformulated CLARREO mission concept uses smaller observatories that are compatible with a variety of launch vehicles –Observatory designs are closing with 30-35% total mass margin above CBE on the Falcon 1e launch vehicle –Observatories will utilize a common spacecraft bus to reduce cost If necessary, the selection of the spectrometer (IR or RS) for CLARREO-1 will be made NLT late spring 2011 –Spectrometer selection process and criteria will be clear and open Near-term Plans –RSDO Rapid III vendors will be visited in July/August to explore the compatibility of their spacecraft buses with the CLARREO payload and launch vehicles –Cost estimates will be revised for MCR to reflect new planning guidelines Summary

14 Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) Meeting Goals and Agenda David Young – Project Scientist July 6, 2010

15 Primary Goal: Document the state of CLARREO science prior to MCR –This will document the valuable work completed by this team –Provide input to NASA for consideration during Phase A science/architecture planning Focus of the Meeting –Present the results of key science studies used to drive mission requirements –Review the revised science value matrix –Discuss the pros and cons, and assess the relative science benefits, of the mission options presented by the CLARREO formulation team –Organize and schedule the final documentation of the Pre-Phase A science studies Meeting Goals and Emphasis

16 Day 1 –Introduction –Science Overview –NIST Perspective –GNSS RO Science and technology Day 2 –IR Science, SI-traceability, requirements, and technology Day 3 –RS Science, SI-traceability, requirements, and technology Day 4 –Instrument summaries and actions –Mission design options –Potential mission partnering opportunities Agenda

17 HQ and Program Office Perspectives