Three real case simulations by Meso-NH validated against satellite observations J.-P. Chaboureau and J.-P. Pinty Laboratoire d’Aérologie, Toulouse 1.Elbe.

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Presentation transcript:

Three real case simulations by Meso-NH validated against satellite observations J.-P. Chaboureau and J.-P. Pinty Laboratoire d’Aérologie, Toulouse 1.Elbe flood 2.BBC shallow clouds 3.IMPROVE heavy orographic precipitation

Meso-NH simulation setup 3 nested models –40 km (150x108), 10 km and 2.5 km (160x160) –50 levels: from 60 m (bot) up to 600 m (top) Physics –1D turb / ECMWF radiation / ISBA surface –Mixed-phase bulk microphysics Pinty-Jabouille (5 species: cloud water, rain, ice, snow, graupel) –KFBechtold’s convection scheme (40 and 10 km) Initialization/coupling with ECMWF analysis (+ use of NCEP forecast for IMPROVE case) Standard Meso-NH simulations on NEC

Model-to-Satellite Approach Observation Operator radiative transfer code Satellite Observation Synthetic Observation VIS- IR-MW Quantitative Comparison with scale similarity Forecast quality Real case study Tuning pertinence Meso-NH meteo model convectionµphysics sub-gridfull grid water vapour water ice rain snow graupel

The Elbe Flood Case A 24-h run starting at 00 UTC 12 Aug km 10 km 2.5 km

Comparison with Meteosat IR 12 UTC 12 Aug 00 UTC 13 Aug Observation Meso-NH 03 UTC 12 Aug 10 km grid

Comparison with Radar 12 UTC 12 August (Rudolf and Rapp 2002) Meso-NH reflectivities at 3 km

Precipitation 3-day rain-gauge Meso-NH at 10 km Meso-NH at 2.5 km Meso-NH: 24 h Acc. Precip (Rudolf and Rapp 2002) 00 UTC 12 to 00 UTC 13 Aug 06 UTC 10 to 06 UTC 13 Aug

The BALTEX BRIDGE Campaign Cases Two 24-h runs starting at 00 UTC on 23 Sept 2001 and 21 May km 10 km 2.5 km

Shallow clouds (23 Sept 2001) Meteosat IR Meso-NH IR Observation at Cabauw Meteosat Vis Meso-NH LWP Meso-NH at Cabauw 12 UTC h 2.5 km grid

Two cloud layers (21 May 2003) Meso-NH LWP 12 UTC Meso-NH Observation No retrieval rain! At Cabauw

Two cloud layers (21 May 2003) Meteosat IR Meso-NH IR Meteosat Vis Meso-NH LWP 12 UTC 21 May Observation Meso-NH 00 UTC 22 May12 UTC 21 May 2.5 km Meteosat IR Meso-NH IR

The IMPROVE Case Two 36-h run starting at 00 UTC 13 Dec km 10 km 2.5 km 1.with ECMWF analysis 2.with NCEP-AVN forecast

Comparison with Goes-W Ch4 06 UTC 13 Dec ObservationMeso-NH + ECMWF 00 UTC 14 Dec Meso-NH + NCEP

Comparison with Radar Model reflectivities at 700 hPa 0042 UTC 14 Dec 0045 UTC 14 Dec Meso-NH + ECMWF Meso-NH + NCEP 0000 UTC 14 Dec (Gavert et al submitted) 0000 UTC 14 Dec MM5SPOL

Vertical X-sections at 00 UTC 14 Dec 3D-ECMWF init3D-NCEP init cloud 2D-ideal case +4h W + temp

Conclusion The Model-to-Satellite Approach Several case studies An indispensable tool for evaluating the cloud-schemes Realistic simulation of cloud weather systems Misleading representation of shallow clouds? Correct amount of precipitation?  Use other spectral range than IR: VIS and MW