Numbers that Matter about China Saturday 19 September 2009 Guy Kedar Gerrit Ledderhof Chia Wei Lee Johanna Little Geoff Spielman

Some Numbers  Chinese population is over 1.3 billion  It is growing at a rate of 0.665% per year  Overall gender ratio is 1.06 males/female  However... 2 Age Group% of populationRatio males/female At birth-1.1 < 15 years old20% < 65 years old70%1.06 > 65 years old10%0.91

What does this mean?  For every 213 children, there are 113 males and 100 females  At the current growth rate, in 15 years Population of 1.44 billion Youths will be between 15 and 30 of age 151 million males, 134 million females  A surplus of almost 18 million males! 3

What does this mean?  If taken to the extreme and the trend only continues...in 50 years population of 1.81 billion 955 million males, 893 million females  A surplus of 62 million males! 4

Why is this happening?  One-Child Policy  57% rural population desire for male to provide social security  Government reporting is suspect underreported female births, abortions 5

What are possible implications?  Unknown ramifications on child development  Change in the role of women  Change of One-Child policy  Crash of population  Mass migration  Increased ethnic diversity  Increased likelihood of war  New approach to polygamy? 6