Safety, Health, Economic Impacts R. E. Carbone I’m a researcher - basic weather and climate process studies. No training in safety, health or economics. I have lead national and international weather research programs dedicated to the improved prediction of “high impact” weather. “Sydney 2000” reinforces my belief that there is an underexploited opportunity. Do we grasp the benefits that could arise from a serious multi-sector engagement? For the sake of focus, I’ll restrict my comments to short range weather prediction.

Some Pet Peeves Are we shackled by “uniformity of service” policies? ~2/3’s of our population lives on ~2% of the land We should define “uniformity” in a way that benefits everyone. Are we shackled by lack of clarity and coordination among governmental and private sector relationships? I think so.

What Differentiates Urban Zones? Sheer quantity of weather-sensitive activity Wide range of sensitivities at any given time within a forecast zone Fine scale of spatial and temporal co-mingling of various sensitivities High public interest in relatively small weather changes Potential economic importance of “routinely disruptive” weather Relatively high density of weather, water and environmental monitoring Proliferation of ad hoc nowcasting and very short range dynamical forecasts. Omnipresent heavy-hitters…Transportation, Water, Emergency Management, Air Quality, Public Events, Recreation And the Added Dimension of Homeland Security

REAL Wavelength: 1.5 microns High pulse energy Range resolution: 3 m Useful range: 500 m to several km Rapid scanning Complete eye-safety Urban aerosol mapping, locating aerosol sources, monitoring dispersion of pollutants Scanning Raman-shifted Eye-safe Aerosol Lidar (REAL): Pentagon, 7 May 2004

Information Needed An urban environment observing system. Present Environment (PE) gridded and depicted at urban use scale (500m, 1 min) Nowcasts of PE (trends and very short range forecasts) Dynamically-based surface layer forecasts Short range (dynamically-based) storm/environment forecasts. Use-directed “significant impact” estimates and forecasts Condition-keyed “optimal pathways” products

Value of Information Baseline social scientist studies on current use and value for targeted user groups Joint user-provider projections of high-value products and services Micro-economic model forecasts of value Forecast Demonstration Projects designed to provide products and services Social Scientist observations of product and service usages, decision impacts Detailed meteorological/environmental verification Social Scientist interviews of targeted-users to quantify usages, decision impacts User-provider evaluation of incremental value

Education, Training, Outreach Education, training and outreach can be dominant factors. A case in point Aviation wind shear accident prevention circa Discovery and understanding of microbursts was the key factor Pilot training provided, based on visual clues, general meteorological conditions. Accident rate plummeted, well before deployment of detection systems

Actions Now Develop a national consensus on “uniformity of service” defined by categories of products and services best matched to rural, ex-urban and urban needs. “Comparable mitigation” of principal impacts could be a guiding criterion. Providers and users should jointly design Urban Forecast Demonstration Projects in light of baseline socio-economic studies of current use and value. FDPs should be conducted in representative urbanized areas jointly with targeted user groups. The incremental use and value, as measured by changes in decision-making, tangible benefits and verifiable improvements in weather information, should then be quantified by social scientists and users alike. A “who does what” issue arises among various branches and levels of government and various private sector interests. This issue should not impede the R&D necessary to define the elements of the solution. It would be best to constructively debate and test potential divisions of labor before operational implementations are understood.

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