CRed Carbon Reduction 1 Climate Change Mitigation What the UK is Doing the Carbon Reduction Programme Keith Tovey Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Факультет экологических исследований Университета Восточной Англии Energy Science Director, Low Carbon Innovation Centre CRed

2 Climate Change Mitigation Climate Change – a short review International Comparisons Issues affecting the UK the Carbon Reduction Programme Conclusions Climate Change – a short review

3 Future Global Warming Rates

4 Total winter precipitation Total summer precipitation Source: Tim Osborne, CRU Change in precipitation in UK

Temperature Rise ( o C) Temperature Rise ( o C) Temperature Rise ( o C) Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office actual predicted Is Global Warming man made? Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match Predictions include: Greenhouse Gas emissions Sulphates and ozone Solar and volcanic activity

Climate Change Arctic meltdown Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region –Nasa satellite imagery Source: Nasa 20% reduction in 24 years

7 Climate Change – a short review International Comparisons Issues affecting the UK the Carbon Reduction Programme Conclusions Climate Change Mitigation

8 In UK each person is consuming energy at a rate of 5.1 kW In USA it is 10.6 kW 1/20th or World’s Population consumes 25% of all energy In Europe it is 5.7 kW In Russia it is also 5.7 kW Globally it is around 2 kW ENERGY Consumption > Carbon Dioxide > Global Warming International Comparisons

kW per Head GDP per head (US$ (95) USA Russia CanadaChina India UK Japan Germany Poland France Qatar Other EU Countries Nordic EU New EU Mediterranean EU Energy - GDP Relationships International Comparisons

10 Qatar USA Canada Australia Russia Japan France Germany UK Developing Countries Carbon Dioxide Emissions per unit of Energy International Comparisons

11 Electricity Emission Factors Russia ~ 0.50 kg/kWh China ~ 0.87 kg/kWh UK ~ 0.52 kg/kWh Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Different Countries Russia Nuclear 21% Coal 37% Oil 2% Gas 33% Other 2% Hydro 1% Renewables 4% UK Hydro 14.9% Nuclear 2.3% Oil 3% Other 0.4% China

12 Climate Change – a short review International Comparisons Issues affecting the UK the Carbon Reduction Programme Conclusions Climate Change Mitigation

13 Change in Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation in UK Major changes in the Fuel Mix for Electricity Generation

14 From 1990 to 1999 Substantial fall in carbon dioxide emissions Despite 23% increase in demand However, once change is made saving cannot be made again Hence rise in recent years Carbon Emission Factors for Electricity Generation Coal ~ 1000 g/kWh Oil ~ 850 g/kWh Gas ~ 540 g/kWh Gas (CCGT) ~ 420 g/kWh Nuclear ~ 4 g/kWh Electricity Options for the Future

15 Historic and Future Demand for Electricity Number of households will rise by 17.5% by 2025 and consumption per household must fall by this amount just to remain static Business as usual Energy Efficient Future

16 The Gas Scenario Assumes all new non-renewable generation is from gas. Replacements for ageing plant Additions to deal with demand changes Assumes 10.4% renewables by % renewables by 2020 Energy Efficiency – consumption capped at 420 TWh by 2010 But 68% growth in gas demand (compared to 2002) Business as Usual 257% increase in gas consumption ( compared to 2002) Electricity Options for the Future

17 Energy Efficiency Scenario Other Options New Nuclear needed by 2025 if CO 2 are to fall significantly Business as Usual Scenario New Nuclear is required even to reduce back to 1990 levels 25% Renewables by MW Wind MW Other Renewables inc. Tidal, hydro, biomass etc. Alternative Electricity Options for the Future

18 Energy Saving: Why is it important for the UK? In the past the UK has been self sufficient in energy Under present trends the UK will be a substantive importer of natural gas ~ 80% and oil by 2020 It makes sense to reduce energy demand and still remain competitive economically. Reducing energy demand will also see a reduction in carbon dioxide - the main contributor to Global Warming The Government has set targets and provided mechanisms to provide grants for individuals and industry. However, more could be done.

19 Government Targets 10.4% of total electricity by 2010 unlikely to be met - at best 6 - 7% 20% by 2020 Promoting Renewables in the UK Electricity Market Onshore 1.5 MW turbine 60 MW offshore Wind Farm at Yarmouth commissioned early New Wave Powered device - launched 6th August 2004

20 Renewables Obligation –Requires all suppliers to provide a minimum percentage of electricity from New Renewables. –In the percentage will be 6.7%, but only around 4% is being achieved. Target is increased each year –In 2006 – 2007 Suppliers will fined at p per kWh (1.662 Roubles) per kWh for any shortfall. Fine is index linked – in 2002 – 3 it was 3.0 p per kWh –This is introducing a new market in the trading of Renewable Obligation Certificates - issued as proof of generation. Promoting Renewables in the UK Electricity Market

21 The Regulator OFGEM SUPPLIERS Trader and Brokers Renewable Generator Notifies Regulator how much generated. ROC’s issued Sells ROCs to Trader Sells Electricity with or without ROCs Notifies OFGEM of compliance - i.e. ROCs or pays FINE Buys ROCs from Trader FINES recycled in proportion to ROCs held Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs)

22 £ per MWh Recycled fines £1.50+ per MWh Embedded benefits £4.30 per MWh Climatic Change Levy £33.24 per MWh Value of ROC (2006) £40 - £45 per MWh Wholesale Electricity Price Less BETTA Imbalance charges ~ £2-£3 per MWh Value of Renewable Generation about £90 per MWh i.e. about twice wholesale price Renewable Obligation Certificates (ROCs)

23 Climate Change – a short review International Comparisons Issues affecting the UK the Carbon Reduction Programme Conclusions Climate Change Mitigation

24 Started in Norwich Now also in Suffolk, Camden, Essex, Cheshire and others Elsewhere in World: –USA (North Carolina), Japan (Okinawa) China (Shanghai) The Carbon Reduction Project Aims to Reduce CO 2 emissions by 60% to combat Climate Change Promoting Approriate Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation Promoting Awareness Working with businesses, Public Bodies, individuals

25 Understandable Language Energy Saving: Awareness / Education / Advice A mobile phone charger left on up to 25 kg CO 2 a year Standby on television > 60 kg per year Filling up with petrol (~£35 for a full tank) kg of CO 2 (5% of a balloon) A tumble dryer uses four times as much energy as the equivalent washing machine - use the dryer sparingly Boiling an extra cup full of water causes the emission of 25 cupfuls of carbon dioxide. and the domestic sector Each person in UK emits 9 tonnes of CO 2 per year ~ 5 hot air balloons Russia 10.5 tonnes ~ 6 balloons

Community Engagement - Reepham Total emitted by residents of Reepham tonnes of CO 2 = 7382 hot air balloons of CO 2 Reepham is now developing a zero-carbon ambition in the Community Flying 11% Heating/ hot water 40% Other household energy 28% Car 21% CO 2 by proportion

27 Engine Generator 36% Electricity 50% Heat GAS Engine heat Exchanger Exhaust Heat Exchanger 11% Flue Losses3% Radiation Losses 86% efficient Localised generation makes use of waste heat. Reduces conversion losses significantly 61% Flue Losses 36% efficient at the University

28 Conversion efficiency improvements 1997/98 electricitygas oilTotal MWh Emission factorkg/kWh Carbon dioxideTonnes ElectricityHeat 1999/ 2000 Total site CHP generatio n exportimportboilersCHPoiltotal MWh Emission factor kg/kWh CO 2 Tonnes Before installation After installation This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide at the University

29 Conversion efficiency improvements Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA Demand for Heat is low in summer: plant cannot be used effectively More electricity could be generated in summer at the University

30 A 1 MW Adsorption chiller uses waste heat to provide chilling 1 MW 吸附冷却器 The Adsorption chiller will save around 700 tonnes CO 2 reduces electricity demand and increases electricity generated 吸附冷却器可为东滩提供空调系统 每一个可减少排放 700 吨 CO 2 at the University

31 ZICER a very low energy building Designed as a low energy building Includes 34 kW of Photovoltaic Generation on top of building Plans to install 4 – 6 MW of Wind Generation Plans to install biomass CHP at the University: Other Projects to reduce CO 2

32 Good Management has reduced emissions of the low energy building by a further 57% at the University: Good Energy Management

33 and the Business Sector x 1200 saving Packaging

34 Better Route Planning10%50% More efficient vehicles15% 58% ActionCO 2 saving Cumulative saving Using 50% Biofuels35% Advanced Driver Training15%45% and the Transport Sector Biodiesel Trials – Banham Poultry Small things add up! A saving of 58% is possible

35 Making a Pledge

36 and a vision for the future in China Visitor Centre & Solar Research 访客中心和太阳 能研究中心 Energy River – Greenhouse of the future 能源之河 - 未来温室 Municipal Building with support below mound 市政废物区和人造 山下的支持区域 Biomass Building with storage area beneath hill 生物质能区和位于人造山 下的储存区域 Biogas Building with support area beneath hill 沼气区和位于人造山下的 支持区域 Main Entrance 主入口 An integrated power station, stunning architecture, a visitor centre and theme park

37 And Finally Lao Tzu ( BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." If we do not change direction then we WILL end up where we are heading and the adverse consequences of Climate Change. Combating Climate Change requires Promotion of Appropriate Renewable Energy, Energy Conservation Carbon Capture and Sequestration in the Future Promoting Awareness to use energy more effectively Supporting the aims of the Programme VISIT the WEB Site This presentation will be displayed on above WEB Site >> follow Academic Links Keith Tovey Н.К.Тови

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39 Energy Saving: The UK Perspective UK has become more efficient in using energy to generate wealth over past 50 years. Generates the same wealth with 45% of energy as in Improvement ~ 1.45% per annum

40 Energy Consumption: The UK Perspective Wealth of UK increased uniformly with energy in 1950s and 1960s Major infra-structure projects in late 1960s - early 1970s restructuring followed by increase efficiency increased conservation

41 Energy Saving: Energy Conservation Grants Energy Saving Trust: Grants for Domestic Properties - also Transport Carbon Trust: Grants for Businesses