Conservation Resources Draft Seventh Power Plan Conservation Potential Assessment

What the Data Represent  Inputs to Regional Portfolio Model (RPM)  Achievable potential, cost & pace  These are not conservation targets  Cost-effectiveness & targets determined later  RPM Will Analyze Resource Options  Conservation  Generation  Demand Response  Market Purchases 2

Overview of Drivers Relative to the 6 th Plan Conservation Potential : 3 Decreases due to: Conservation accomplishments New and revised state energy codes and federal standards Lower Load forecast Culled measures Increases due to: New measures Higher units counts for some measures Decreases/Increases/Remains the Same due to: Updated assessments of stock and market characteristics

Sixth Plan Accomplishments 4Forecast Program Savings All contribute to creating momentum savings

36 New Federal Efficiency Standards Take Effect This Decade 5

Impact of Federal Standards on Loads* 6 *Draft estimate, subject to change

Baseline Load Forecast is Lower 7

When Will We Need Resources and How Much Will We Need? Forecast Range for the Net Change in Average Energy Loads & Resources* 8 * Reflects Average Water and Announced Resource Additions and Retirements 1500 – 3000 aMW 3600 – 6800 aMW

When Will We Need Resources and How Much Will We Need? Forecast Range for the Net Change in Peak Loads & Resources* 4000 – 8200 MW 1600 – 3600 MW * Reflects Average Water and Announced Resource Additions and Retirements

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Total Possible Load Reduction 11

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Cumulative Max Conservation by Cost Bin (20 years) 13

Cumulative Max Conservation by Cost Bin (5 years) 14

Seventh Power Plan Conservation Price Bin 15

Max Achievable Conservation by Sector at Various Price Bins (Cumulative 2035) 16

Achievable Savings ~22% of Load (All Cost Bins) Sector Achievable Technical Potential (aMW) Achievable Potential as Percent of Load Achievable Technical Potential (aMW) Achievable Potential as Percent of Load Residential124815%237927% Commercial114415%180920% Industrial44211%55512% Agriculture899%12613% Utility76 <1% 2181% Total300014%508622%

Measure List  Over 100 measures and around 1600 measure permutations analyzed across five sectors  Significant new measures  Solid state lighting  Variable refrigerant flow HVAC systems  HP clothes dryer  Advanced power strips  6P measures removed or modified  TVs  Packaged refrigeration systems  New residential construction insulation upgrades  Distribution system (modified) 18

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What’s New? 20 Savings from New Measures2035 (aMW) Agriculture 22 Irrigation Efficiency 19 Lighting 3 Commercial 1,049 Advanced Rooftop Controller 119 Bi-Level Stairwell Lighting 11 Compressed Air 4 DCV Parking Garage 13 DHP 60 Exterior Building Lighting 142 LEC Exit Sign 19 Lighting Controls Interior 37 Low Power LF Lamps 40 LPD Package 391 Motors Rewind 5 Secondary Glazing Systems 40 Smart Plug Power Strips 47 VRF 92 Water Cooler Controls 13 WEPT 11 WHTanks 2 Industrial 38 Lighting 38 Residential 1,196 Advanced Power Strips 262 Aerator 32 ASHP 122 Behavior 45 Clothes Dryer 53 DHP Ducted 158 EV Supply Equip 7 Lighting 462 Lighting PPA 42 WIFI enabled tstats 12 Grand Total 2,306

How Much ET? 21 Savings from Emerging Technologies2035 (aMW) Residential 1,460 Advanced Power Strips 262 ASHP 122 Behavior 45 Clothes Dryer 53 DHP Ducted 158 EV Supply Equip 7 HPWH 289 Lighting 462 Lighting PPA 42 WasteWater Heat Recovery 8 WIFI enabled tstats 12 Commercial 848 Advanced Rooftop Controller 119 Exterior Building Lighting 142 LEC Exit Sign 19 Lighting Controls Interior 37 LPD Package 391 Smart Plug Power Strips 47 VRF 92 Agriculture 22 Irrigation Efficiency 19 Lighting 3 Industrial 38 Lighting 38 Grand Total 2,369

Savings Shape by Heavy & Light Load Hours 22

Winter Peak vs. Annual Energy 23

Summer Peak vs. Annual Energy 24

What about Demand Response?  Council staff have indentified significant DR potential  Early RPM results indicate low-cost DR (~$25/MW/yr) is being purchased in nearly all futures  Levels of acquisition 2-3X greater than current deployment levels  There is some overlap between EE measures and DR (e.g. HPWH, controls) 25

Some Observations  Over 5000 aMW of conservation identified by year 20  Similar cost profile to 6P  Lots at <$40/MWh  Many new measures & emerging tech  Will need regional coordination to achieve  Significant impact on winter peak  Can increase if include measures with DR functionality 26

MEASURES IN THE SEVENTH PLAN CONSERVATION ASSESSMENT Supplemental Slides 27

Residential Measures Total Achievable Potential Available by Year (aMW) Residential 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) HVAC ResWx ASHP Controls Commissioning &Sizing DHP DHP Ducted Duct Sealing GSHP WIFI enabled tstats Heat Recovery Ventilation Lighting Lighting Lighting PPA Water Heating Showerheads HPWH Behavior Solar Water Heater Clothes Washer Aerator Dishwasher WasteWater Heat Recovery Residential 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Electronics Advanced Power Strips Computer Monitor Refrigeration Refrigerator Freezer Food Preparation Electric Oven Microwave Dryer Clothes Dryer Whole Bldg/Meter Level EV Supply Equip Grand Total 523 1,249 2,379 92

Spread of Levelized Costs – Weatherization 7P

Commercial Measures Total Achievable Potential Available by Year (aMW) Commercial 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Lighting LPD Package Low Power LF Lamps Lighting Controls Interior Exterior Building Lighting Street & Roadway Lighting Parking Lighting Bi-Level Stairwell Lighting LEC Exit Sign Electronics Data Centers Smart Plug Power Strips Desktop Monitor Laptop HVAC Advanced Rooftop Controller Commercial EM DCV Parking Garage Demand Control Ventilation DHP Secondary Glazing Systems VRF Premium Fume Hood Economizer DCV Restaurant Hood WEPT Commercial 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Refrigeration Grocery Refrigeration Bundle Water Cooler Controls Food Preparation Cooking Equipment Pre-Rinse Spray Valve Process Loads Municipal Sewage Treatment Municipal Water Supply Motors/Drives ECM-VAV MotorsRewind Compressed Air Compressed Air Water Heating Showerheads WHTanks Grand Total 449 1,144 1,809 28

Agriculture Measures Total Achievable Potential Available by Year (aMW) Agriculture2020 aMW2025 aMW2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Irrigation Irrigation Hardware Irrigation Pressure Irrigation Water Mgmt Irrigation Efficiency Lighting Dairy Lighting Motors/Drives Dairy Irrigation Motor Refrigeration Dairy Grand Total

Industrial Measures Total Achievable Potential Available by Year (aMW) Industrial 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Pumps Fans Energy Project Management Integrated Plant Energy Management Lighting Plant Energy Management Food Processing Food Storage Compressed Air Material Handling Hi-Tech Pulp Paper Wood Metals Motors Transformers Belts Grand Total

Utility System Measures Total Achievable Potential Available by Year (aMW) Utility 2020 aMW 2025 aMW 2035 aMW TRC Lvl Cost ($/MWh) Distribution System Efficiency LDC voltage control method Light system improvements Major system improvements EOL voltage control method A - SCL implement EOL w/ major system improvements Grand Total