Rural Idaho Since the Recession Priscilla Salant, Director McClure Center for Public Policy Research University of Idaho August 12, 2015 www.indicatorsidaho.org.

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Presentation transcript:

Rural Idaho Since the Recession Priscilla Salant, Director McClure Center for Public Policy Research University of Idaho August 12,

TITLE 67 STATE GOVERNMENT AND STATE AFFAIRS CHAPTER 90 IDAHO RURAL DEVELOPMENT PARTNERSHIP ACT (1)Assess conditions of rural Idaho; (2)Advise the governor and the legislature on public policy and strategies to improve the quality of life in rural Idaho;. (6)Serve as a nonpartisan forum for identifying and understanding rural issues from all perspectives;.

We use OMB’s definition of “rural” All 32 counties other than these metro areas: Coeur d’Alene (1 county) Lewiston (1 county) Boise-Nampa-Caldwell (5 counties) Pocatello (1 county plus 1 w Logan MSA) Idaho Falls (3 counties) SOURCE: US Census Bureau

Rural Idahoans make up a declining but significant share of the population 548,000 in 2014 Percent SOURCE: USDA, Economic Research Service

Population growth has been uneven across Idaho SOURCE: US Census Bureau Population change (%),

Rural Idaho is growing only because of Hispanics SOURCE: US Census Bureau Hispanic growth (%),

Population change: Net migration and births minus deaths SOURCE: US Census Bureau Natural change rate (%),

Unemployment rates are down from the peak. Rural rates are slightly higher than urban. SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Average annual unemployment rate (%), 2014

Job numbers are below pre-recession levels in both rural and urban Idaho SOURCE: US Bureau of Economic Analysis Change in number of jobs (%),

Rural wages remain lower than urban but are starting to catch up SOURCE: US Bureau of Economic Analysis NOTE: Adjusted for inflation to 2013 Real Dollars Average wage per job ($), 2013

Surprising trend in per capita income: rural is catching up to urban, which appears stalled. SOURCE: US Bureau of Economic Analysis NOTE: Adjusted for inflation to 2013 Real Dollars Per capita personal income ($), 2013

The picture is mixed in Idaho’s farm-dependent counties. Since the recession… Population numbers: flat Jobs: up slightly and more than in Idaho as a whole Unemployment rates: below the state level and falling Average wages: slightly higher than the state level Population change (%),

Policy Implications Highway funding Early childhood and K-12 education – from school boards to broadband College access Public lands including new wilderness designations And more ….