Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Electricity Price Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Jeff King Regional Technical Forum January 9, 2001.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

1 CPUC Avoided Cost Workshop Environmental Externality Avoided Cost.

Advertisements

Will CO2 Change What We Do?

Ad Hoc West-wide Resource Assessment Team (WRAT) : Assessment of Western System Adequacy in the Short-term Jeff King Northwest Power Planning Council Presentation.

Toward a Sustainable Future Name of Conference, Event, or Audience Date Presenter’s Name | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Effects of Alternative Scenarios on Sixth Power Plan Northwest Power and Conservation Council Whitefish, MT June.

5/22/20151 Northwest Power & Conservation Council Power Committee Over-generation and Negative Energy Prices – a work in progress Jeff King September 21,

Energy Year 2013 Electricity Finnish Energy Industries.

Copyrighted © 2000 PG&E All Rights Reserved CASE Initiative Project TDV Economic Update Brian Horii and Snuller Price Energy & Environmental Economics,

Environmental Regulation in Oligopoly Markets: A Study of Electricity Restructuring Erin T. Mansur UC Berkeley and UC Energy Institute March 22, 2002 POWER.

ERCOT PUBLIC 3/25/ LTSA Scenario and Data Assumptions March 25, 2014.

ACC Open Meeting – November 18, 2010 Four Corners Power Plant 1.

Energy Business Solutions Michigan IRP Working Group Meeting June 10, 2005.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Discussion of Proposed Generating Resource Action Items Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Proposed Aeroderivative Combustion Turbine Planning Assumptions Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation.

Battling Load Growth in NYC Chris Smith NYSERDA NARUC 2007 Summer Meeting.

ERCOT PUBLIC 6/17/ LTSA Scenario Results June, 2014.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council 6 th Plan Conservation Resource Supply Curve Workshop on Data & Assumption Overview of Council Resource Analysis.

1 Are We Ready For The Future? 2005 NIPPC Annual Meeting September 8, 2005 Michael R. Niggli President, Sempra Generation.

Impact of 8760 Analysis on Value of Energy Council & RTF use 48 time segments per Year – 12 Months – Four Hourly Time Bins each month Considering move.

Draft Avoided Cost Forecast and Marginal CO 2 Offset Value of Conservation Regional Technical Forum Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council.

Avoided Costs of Generation

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Regional Conservation Update: News From the Front January 24, 2007 Tom Eckman Northwest Power and Conservation.

Base Case Draft – For Comment Rocky Mountain States Sub-Regional Transmission Study December 9, 2003.

Highlights of AESC 2011 Report Vermont Presentation August 22, | ©2011 Synapse Energy Economics Inc. All rights reserved.

Jenell Katheiser Doug Murray Long Term Study Scenarios and Generation Expansion Update January 22, 2013.

Climate Change and The NW Power Supply Climate Impacts on the Pacific Northwest University of Washington April 21, 2009.

Wholesale Power Price Forecast 01/28/03 Current Trends Update March 11, 2003.

1 Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Georgetown University March 17, 2008 International Energy Outlook: The Future of Energy.

Discussion of Resource Plans Michael Schilmoeller for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council Wednesday, June 10, 2009.

Texas Wind Energy American Meteorological Society Summer Community Meeting – Norman Oklahoma Henry Durrwachter, P.E. August 12, 2009.

ELECTRICITY SOURCES Twenty five percent of the state’s electricity comes from out-of-state generation.

Preliminary Results with the Regional Portfolio Model Michael Schilmoeller for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generation Resource Advisory.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Slide 1 Accelerating Energy Efficiency To Reduce the PNW Power System's Carbon Footprint Tom Eckman Manager, Conservation.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Reviewing the Fifth Power Plan Energy Price Assumptions Natural Gas Advisory Committee December 5, 2006.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Galbraith Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generating.

California Energy Commission Integrated Energy Policy Report Commissioner Workshop: Revised Results Natural Gas Common Cases September 21, 2015 Leon D.

Wholesale Power Price Forecast 01/28/03 Current Trends Update Jeff King January 31, 2003.

1 Systems Analysis Advisory Committee (SAAC) Thursday, December 19, 2002 Michael Schilmoeller John Fazio.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Proposed Heavy-duty Combustion Turbine Planning Assumptions Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation.

Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast Draft Current Trends Forecast Jeff King Conservation Resource Advisory Committee September 30, 2002.

Natural Gas: Summer 2005 Steve Harvey FERC July 25, 2005 Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

International Conference on Post-Kyoto Climate Change Mitigation modelling, Seoul June 2010 Impact of Special Gas Consumption Tax in Electroproduction.

September 21, 2005 ICF Consulting RGGI Electricity Sector Modeling Results Updated Reference, RGGI Package and Sensitivities.

Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilProCost Version 2.2 RTF July 2007.

Kevin Hanson Doug Murray Jenell Katheiser Long Term Study Scenarios and Generation Expansion Update April, 2012.

Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) A Success Story… In Progress Ingmar Sterzing United States Association of Energy Economics (USAEE) Pittsburgh.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Revised Carbon Dioxide Methodology Regional Technical Forum April 18, 2004.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council A Look At The Council’s Conservation Planning Methodology and Assumptions A Look At The Council’s Conservation.

Diagram from the publication

Northwest Power and Conservation Council Overview of Draft Sixth Power Plan Council Meeting Whitefish, MT June 9-11, 2009.

Power System Marginal CO2 Production Factors Jeff King Northwest Power and Conservation Council Presented to the RTF April 18, 2006.

2009 Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment Resource Adequacy Technical Committee October 16, 2009.

Uncertainty in the Regional Portfolio Model Michael Schilmoeller for the Northwest Power and Conservation Council Generation Resource Advisory Committee.

Rocky Mountain States Sub-Regional Transmission Study December 9, 2003 Generation Additions Strawman.

1 Proposed Input Assumptions to RTF Cost-Effectiveness Determinations February 2, 2010.

11/4/02 NW Energy Coalition Clean Electricity Options for the Pacific Northwest: An Assessment of Efficiency and Renewable Potentials through the year.

Northwest Wind Integration Action Plan Jeff King Northwest Power & Conservation Council June 27, 2007.

1 Cross-Cutting Analytical Assumptions for the 6 th Power Plan July 1, 2008.

Northwest Resource Adequacy Implementation – Update ---- DRAFT ---- NW Adequacy Forum Technical Committee May 31, 2006.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Interim Wholesale Electricity Price and Carbon Dioxide Production Forecasts Maury Galbraith Northwest.

1 Domestic Heating Fuel Choice Study (aka The Direct Use of Gas) Michael Schilmoeller NW Power and Conservation Council web presentation for the web presentation.

October 26, 2005 ICF Consulting RGGI Electricity Sector Modeling Results RPS Sensitivity & Very High Emissions Reference and Package Cases.

TransmissionHub Quarterly Market Update June 8, 2015 Kent Knutson, Director Hub Services, PennWell Corporation Sponsored by.

1 18/05/2006 Giancarlo Scorsoni Italy Country Situation.

Sixth Northwest Conservation & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Galbraith Generating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting.

Northwest Power and Conservation Council The Role of Electric Energy Efficiency in Reducing PNW Carbon Emissions Tom Eckman Manager, Conservation Resources.

California Independent System Operator 1 Department of Market Analysis California Independent System Operator California ISO Creation Time: July,

GENESYS Redevelopment Strawman Proposal

Lehigh Canal Spoil Removal At Old King’s Road.

Strategic Bidding in Competitive Electricity Markets

Presentation transcript:

Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Electricity Price Forecast Sensitivity Analysis Jeff King Regional Technical Forum January 9, 2001

Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Basic Assumptions New projects are developed by private, independent developers Projects under construction are completed; additional projects are market-driven. Projects scheduled for retirement are retired; additional retirements are market-driven. Constant “Mean Price” water conditions. Average loads. No transmission upgrades. Pre-ISO transmission rates (“pancaked”). Bid margin set at 5% of variable cost. Operating reserves set at 6.5%.

Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 RTF Sensitivity Study Assumptions Natural gas Prices Request: NYMEX futures contracts in near-term; $3.75/MMBtu by end of study period. This run: as requested. Renewables incentives/environmental externalities Request: 2 c/kWh renewables incentive; phased to equivalent CO2 tax This run: 1.5 c/kWh renewables incentive; phased to $20/ton CO2 tax NOx Offsets Request: NOx offset prices consistent with current offset market. This run: A&R study assumptions ($0.80 cents/lb, all hours)

Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Gas Price Forecast (Henry Hub)

Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Forecast Resource Development: Pacific Northwest

Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Forecast Resource Development: WSCC

Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Forecast Mid-Columbia Prices

Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Levelized Mid-Columbia Forecasts

Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Four-segment Monthly Averages

Northwest Power Planning Council, January 2001 Comparison of Monthly Averages