LIFE III – EC4MACS Kick-Off Meeting 06/07 March 2007 Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis EC4MACS European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies Overview of the 5 years work plan

Background Clean air and climate change are central fields of EU environmental policy. New scientific findings demonstrate important interactions and potentially large economic synergies between air pollution control and greenhouse gas mitigation. Model analyses, based on latest scientific findings and validated data, can provide valuable information for cost- effective policy strategies. The European Commission envisages for 2011/12 a review and revisions of their air quality legislation and the European Climate Change Programme.

Partners IIASA (AT) – Coordinator, integrated assessment MNP/RIVM (NL) - Modelling of environmental impacts NTUA Athens (GR) – Energy projections Uni Bonn, EuroCare (DE) – Agricultural projections LUATh Thessaloniki (GR) – Transport modelling Mike Holland, AEAT, Metroeconomica (UK) – Economic benefit analysis (MET.NO (NO) – Modelling of atmospheric chemistry and transport) JRC-Ispra JRC-Sevilla

Objectives Providing scientific and economic analyes for the revision of the EU Thematic Strategy on Air and the European Climate Change Programme (ECCP) Improvement of existing models by including recent scientific findings. Update of input data Accceptance of modelling tools and input data by stakeholders Make modelling tools available to the public over the Internet.

Expected outcomes Policy analysis on cost-effective strategies to reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in the EU with –Updated scientific insights –Improved modelling tools –Validated input data To support reviews of Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution and ECCP Interim assessment in 2008 Final assessment in 2011

Modelling tools GAINS-Europe/Asia (IIASA) PRIMES energy model for EU (NTUA) CAPRI agricultural model for EU (UniBonn, EuroCare) EMEP atmospheric chemistry and transport model (met.no) CCE ecosystems impact assessment (MNP) GEM-E3 general equilibrium macro-economic impacts (NTUA) TREMOVE transport model (LAUTh) Benefit assessment (MH, AEAT, MetroEconomica) TM5 Hemispheric chemical transport model POLES global energy model

The EC4MACS model system GAINSPOLESPRIMES CAPRI TM5EMEP CCE-CL TREMOVE BENEFITS Global/ hemispheric boundary conditions European policy drivers Energy Transport Atmosphere Agriculture Ecosystems GEM-E3 Cost- effectiveness Impacts

Tasks Update models, where necessary, to incorporate new scientific insights Scientific peer review of all models Improve model interfaces Validate input data with stakeholders Produce interim assessment in 2009 Produce final assessment in 2011 –Actual policy analyses not necessarily included in this project Project administration, financial reporting

General work plan 2007: –Methodological improvements 2008: –Data collection –Feedbacks on methodological improvements 2009 –Interim assessment –Methodology workshop 2010 –Uncertainty assessment –Bilateral consultations on input data 2011 –Final assessment

General work plan MethodologyDataDisseminationPolicy application 2007Improvements : Interim documentation Data collection Consultation on methodology over Internet Revised documentation 31.1.: Documentation of interim data Internet access Methodology workshop Interim assessment report UncertaintyBilateral consultations on data Workshop on baseline Documentation Final baseline Final policy scenarios

Main deliverables to Commission by IIASA 31/7/2008: Interim model methodology 31/7/2009: Interim assessment 31/10/2010: Uncertainties 30/7/2011: Final baseline projections 30/9/2011:Final methodology documentation 30/10/2011:Policy scenarios 30/4/2012:Final report 31/1, 31/7 each year: Progress reports 31/7/2009:Mid-term report

Main deliverables of each work package to IIASA 30/4/2008: Report on interim modelling methodology 30/1/2009: Documentation of data for interim assessment 30/7/2009: Report on revised modelling methodology 30/4/2010: Report on uncertainty analysis 31/1/2011: Report on final modelling methodology 30/4/2011: Documentation of data for final assessment 31/10/2011: (Re-)analysis of final policy scenarios

Milestones for interaction with stakeholders 31/7/2007: EC4MACS web site 31/10/2008: Internet consultation on interim methodology 30/4/2009: Internet access to input data 31/10/2009: Stakeholders workshop on methodology : Bilateral consultations on input data 31/7/2010: Stakeholders workshop on baseline projections

Tasks for the first year Methodological improvements Development of hard-wired model interfaces Any grand new ideas for additional analyses Testing of financial reporting routines