Preparations for the review of the Gothenburg Protocol Report to the WGSR September 2006 Markus Amann et al., EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)

Tasks for the review Development of baseline projections for emissions –Based on national projections of (energy and agricultural) activity projections – –Compilation of input data For EU countries For non-EU countries Assessment of health and environmental impacts

EU countries: NEC baseline projections ( EU-25 + BUL+ROM+TK+CRO+N+CH) Series of bilateral consultations with 22 Parties in 2005 –Review of emission inventories, projections, current legislation Energy projections: –National projections from 21 countries –PRIMES scenario for €20 carbon price Agricultural projections –National projections from 17 countries –CAPRI scenario for the mid-term CAP reform Presentation in Brussels at Conference on September

NEC baseline emission projections (EU-25, National projections, relative to the 2000 levels)

Comparison of NEC and CAFE baseline emissions EU-25, 2020

Comparison of NEC and CAFE energy projections EU-25, 2020

CO 2 emissions of the NEC baseline projections EU-25, 2020 PRIMES €20 scenario National energy projections

Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO 2 mitigation (EU-25, 2020) PRIMES €20 scenario National energy projections

Air pollutant emissions as a function of CO 2 mitigation (EU-25, 2020)

Air pollution control costs for current legislation 2020 (SO 2, NO x, PM) as a function of CO 2 mitigation (EU-25, 2020) Costs of CAFE TSAP proposal

Input data for non-EU countries Bilateral consultations held with: –Norway, (Switzerland) –Russia, Ukraine (funded by DG- ENV) –Belarus Draft input data documented in CIAM report 1/2006 Feedbacks from national experts invited up to end of 2006 Updated projections in early 2007

Sources of energy projections for non-EU countries AlbaniaGothenburg Protocol 1996NorwayNational projection 2005/2006 BelarusGothenburg Protocol, adjusted 2006 RomaniaPRIMES baseline 2005 Bosnia-H.Gothenburg Protocol 1996RussiaNational projection 2002 BulgariaPRIMES baseline 2005Serbia-M.Gothenburg Protocol 1996 CroatiaGothenburg Protocol 1996SwitzerlandNational projection 2005/2006 T.F.Y.R.O. Macedonia Gothenburg Protocol 1996TurkeyPRIMES baseline 2005 Rep. of Moldova Gothenburg Protocol 1996UkraineNational projection 2004

Draft projections of emissions for non-EU countries (relative to the 2000 levels)

Further time table for the Gothenburg review December 2006: Deadline for comments on input data for non-EU countries May 2007: Draft assessment of environmental impacts presented to TFIAM August 2006: Report to the EMEP Steering Body September 2007: Report to WGSR

Technical potentials for further PM2.5 reductions on top of “Current legislation” in 2020 [in kt] from sources which are included in existing Protocols

The EU-LIFE project EC4MACS: European Consortium for Modelling of Air Pollution and Climate Strategies EU funding for a consortium of integrated assessment modelling teams to prepare and maintain modelling tools for air quality and climate policy development –IIASA (CIAM) - Coordinator –MNP/RIVM (CCE) - critical loads data –NTUA Athens – energy projections –Uni Bonn et al. – agricultural projections –LTUA Thessaloniki – transport modelling –AEAT et al. – benefit assessment –MET.NO (MSC-W) – dispersion modelling –Supported by additional contracts for JRC Ispra and Sevilla Project time frame ~4.5 million € EU contribution (on co-funding basis)