Munehiko Yamaguchi, Sharanya J. Majumdar (RSMAS/U. Miami) and multiple collaborators 3 rd THORPEX International Science Symposium 14 Sep Coordinated use of targeted observations during TCS-08/T-PARC

Outline of the talk 1.What we did before TCS-08/T-PARC 2.What we did during TCS-08/T-PARC 3.What we learned from TCS-08/T-PARC I will talk about the above 3 from a perspective of targeted observations Pretty Simple…

Guideline on targeting products and timelines After the Hawaii meeting in December 2007 (8 months before TCS-08/T-PARC), our targeting group created a guideline on targeting products and timelines because it was found that many institutes could provide the sensitive area calculations and the availability time of each guidance varied from one center to another. (Final version of the guideline was completed in July…) Singular vectors ECMWF NRL (based on NOGAPS) JMA U Yonsei (based on MM5) Adjoint based SAC NTU (ADSSV) NRL (based on COAMPS) Ensemble based SAC UKMO (ETKF based on MOGREPS) U Miami/NCEP (ETKF based on NCEP + ECMWF + CMC ensembles) U Washington (Ensemble sensitivity based on WRF) Ensemble variance NOAA (based on NCEP ensembles) 10 kinds of SAC in total (many talks and posters about SAC and targeting during TTISS)

Sensitive Area Calculations (SAC) Automatic submission of 5 fixed areas Up to 5 additional areas chosen interactively Flexible choice of targeting time (t + 18 to 102 h) and verification time (t + 36 to 120 h) Courtesy of Sarah Jones, David Richardson, Cristina Prates and Cihan Sahin. Websites providing sensitive area calculations

TCDateAircraft Non-typhoon Falcon missions TY Nuri DOTSTAR TY Sinlaku DOTSTAR TY Sinlaku DOTSTAR and Falcon TY Sinlaku Falcon TS Sinlaku DOTSTAR and Falcon TY Hagupit DOTSTAR STY Jangmi DOTSTAR TY Jangmi DOTSTAR and Falcon TS Jangmi Falcon missions JMA activated rapid-scan mode on MTSAT2 satellite between and Extra rawinsonde observations. Summary of Missions

Targeting Elluminate Session The targeting group hold an 1-hour Targeting Elluminate Session before the Daily Planning Meeting when targeting missions might be expected and mainly discussed about 1.Synopsis based on satellite images and analysis fields by global models such as ECMWF, UKMO, GFS and NOGAPS. 2.Available observation resources 3.Forecast uncertainty using ensemble products such as tracks and spread of Z Sensitive area calculations 5.Tentative flight plan

Following 3 slides are the slides we really used in the Targeting Elluminate Session starting from 21UTC 9 th September 2008 for a flight mission for Typhoon Sinlaku at 00 UTC 11 th September 2008.

JMA Typhoon EPS UTC ini +132h JMA Medium-Range EPS UTC ini +216h EPS track forecasts ECMWF EPS UTC ini +120h GFS EPS UTC ini +???h

Sensitive analysis calculations: Obs. Time 00Z 11 th Sept. ECMWFNOGAPSJMA UM ETKFUK ETKFCOAMPS

Joint Flight Plan: 00Z 11 th Sept. DOTSTAR (Blue) and Falcon (Red) Flight Plan

Canceled Flight: Mission at 00Z 12 th Sept. DOTSTAR !!! Canceled !!! The latest from Wu-san said, “Concerning the weather condition not suitable for a feasible targeting flight, the DOTSTAR mission for 00UTC 12 Sept. has just been called off.” Due to the weather condition, the planned DOTSTAR mission at 00UTC 12 th Sept. was canceled.

Sensitive area not fully covered: Mission at 00Z 10 th Sept. ECMWFNOGAPS Obs. Points cover sensitive regions proposed by guidance Area surrounded by black line is also sensitive DOTSTAR Flight Plan JMA Due to the limited aircraft resources, the sensitivity area was not fully covered.

WITH DROPS JMA BEST TRACK WITHOUT DROPS 500 hPa ASYMMETRIC STREAMF’N DIFF 500 hPa ASYMMETRIC WIND DIFF +00 h +18 h OSE using NCEP GFS for Sinlaku initiated at 00Z 10 th Sept. Large increments in the west edge of the Pacific High, leading to the persistent changes in the steering flow

Summary 1.The Guideline on targeting products and timelines were helpful in understanding when and what products were available at each meeting help in Monterey, Tokyo, Taiwan, etc. 2.The Websites were useful to compare the various kinds of sensitivity analysis guidance. 3.The targeting group hold the 1-hour Targeting Elluminate Session when targeting mission was expected. 4.We conducted targeting missions for 4 typhoons. 5.Due to the weather condition and limited aircraft resources, we had to be very flexible in the decision-making process. Our multi-agency, multi-national involved targeting missions worked out!!

Short term goals 1.Observing System Experiment (OSE): Evaluate the impact of targeted observations based on sensitivity areas. 2.Understand the role of the additional observations in NWP models. It might happen that some observations lead to the deterioration of model performance. 3.Evaluate fidelity of sensitivity analysis guidance (long targeting and verification time).

Long term goals 1.Demonstrate utility of targeted observations 2.Observation types: manned and unmanned aircraft, adaptive targeting/thinning of satellite winds and radiances, off-time rawinsondes, WISDOM, others… 3.Develop centralized, coordinated data targeting system for TCs, Winter Storms, others…? 4.Multi-agency, multi-national. 5.Saves time and human error; allows for archiving and evaluation. 6.Extend to 3-7 day track forecasts; intensity prediction