Ilmastonmuutoksen arvioidut vaikutukset Pohjois-Euroopan näkökulmasta Seppo Kellomäki Joensuun yliopisto, metsätieteellinen tiedekunta

Contents Assessment process Key vulnerabilities Summary Findings, with examples from Finland Key uncertainties

Northern Europe is a part of the circumpolar boreal zone, vulnerable to any changes in the climate

Assessment process 1 Current sensitivity/vulnerability –Climate factors and trends –Non-climate factors and trends –Current adaptation and adaptive capacity Assumptions about future trends –Climate projections (means, extremes) –Non-climate trends Key future impacts and vulnerabilities –Water resources –Coastal and marine systems –Mountains and sub-artic regions –Forests shrub lands and grasslands –Wetlands and aquatic ecosystems –Biodiversity –Agriculture and fishery –Marine fisheries and aquaculture –Energy and transport –Tourism and recreation –Property insurance –Human health

Assessment process 2 Adaptation: practices, options and constrains –Water resources –Coastal and marine systems –Mountains and sub-artic regions –Forests shrub lands and grasslands –Wetlands and aquatic ecosystems –Biodiversity –Agriculture and fishery –Marine fisheries and aquaculture –Energy and transport –Tourism and recreation –Property insurance –Human health

Key vulnerabilities of European systems and sectors to climate change for the main biogeographic regions AT: Increased coastal erosion and flooding; stressing of marine bio-systems and habitat loss; increased tourism pressure on coasts; greater winter storm risk and vulnerability of transport to winds CE: Increased frequency and magnitude of winter floods; increased variability of crop yields; increased health effects of heat waves ME: Reduced water availability; increased drought; severe biodiversity losses; increased forest fires; reduced summer tourism; reduced suitable cropping areas, increased energy demand in summer, reduced hydropower; increased land losses in estuaries and deltas; increased salinity and eutrophication of coastal waters MT: Glaciers disappearing; reduced snow-cover period; upward shift of tree line; severe biodiversity losses; reduced ski season ST: Decreased crop yield; increased soil erosion; increased SLR with positive NAO; increased salinity of inland seas BO: Water logging; eutrophication of lakes and wetlands; increased coastal flooding and erosion; increased winter storm risk; reduced ski season; severe fires in drained peatland TU: Thawing of permafrost; decreased tundra area; increased coastal erosion and flooding

Sectors and systemsImpact Area North Atlanti c Centra l Medite rr.East Water resources Floods   Water availability   Water stress   Mountains, cryosphere Glaciers retreat  Duration of snow cover  Permafrost retreat  na  Tree line upward shift  Forest, shrub lands and grasslands Forest NPP    to   Northward/inland shift of tree species   to   Stability of forest ecosystems  Shrub lands NPP   Natural disturbances (e.g., fire, pests, wind)  Grasslands NPP   to  

Sectors and systemsImpact Area Nort h Atla ntic Cent ral Medi terr.East Wetlands and aquatic ecosyste ms Drying/ transformation of wetlands  Species diversity   to  ??  Eutrophication   Disturbance of drained peatlands  na  Biodivers ity Plants   ( Mt)  Amphibians   (SW)  (SE)  Reptiles    (SW)  (SE)  Marine mammals  ??na  ?? Low-lying coastal birds  na  ?? Freshwater biodiversity   to  ??  ??

Sectors and systemsImpact Area Nort h Atla ntic Cent ral Medi terr.East Agricultu re and fisheries Suitable cropping area  Agricultural land area  Summer crops (maize, sunflower)  Winter crops (winter wheat)   to  Irrigation needsna  to  Energy crops  Livestock  to  Energy and transport Energy supply and distribution  Winter energy demand    Summer energy demand  Transport  Tourism Winter (incl. ski) tourism  Summer tourism  Property insurance Flooding claims??  ?? Storms claims  ??

Summary Finding 1: For the first time, wide ranging impacts of changes in current climate have been documented in Europe (very high confidence)

Summary Finding 2: Climate-related hazards will mostly increase, although changes will vary geographically (very high confidence) Change in climate: more frequent and longer dry spells Impacts on ecosystems and society: e.g. changes in the fire hazards

Summary Finding 3: Climate change is likely to magnify regional differences of Europe’s natural resources and assets (very high confidence) Changes in forest growth Change in stocking and sustainable cuttings

Summary Finding 4: It is anticipated that Europe’s natural ecosystems and biodiversity will be substantially affected by climate change (high confidence)

Summary Finding 5: Climate change is estimated to pose challenges to many European economic sectors and alter distribution of economic activity (high confidence) Agriculture with more success in the north Forestry with more success in the north Less winter heating but more summer cooling Energy with more hydropower in the north Transportation with less winter maintenance Winter tourism is anticipated to face reduced snow duration and snow cover Insurance, more risks to extreme weather episodes

Summary Finding 6: Adaptation to climate change is likely benefit from experience gained in reactions to extreme climate events, by specially implementing proactive climate change risk management (high confidence) Summary Finding 7: Although the effectiveness and feasibility of adaptation measures are expected to vary greatly, only few governments and institutions have systematically and critically examined the portfolio of measures

Impact of climate change  Improved long-term monitoring of climate sensitive physical (e.g. cryosphere), biological (ecosystem), and social sectors (tourism, health)  Improvement of climate impact models, including extreme events on longer term dynamics of ecosystems  Simultaneous consideration of climatic and non-climatic factors through experimental research and the development of integrated impact models  Enhancement of the integrated impact studies, e.g. of sensitive ecosystems including human dimensions.  Better understanding on socioeconomic consequences of climate change for different European regions with different adaptive capacity Adaptation measures  Comprehensive evaluation (effectiveness, economy, constrains) of measures to reduce impacts of climate variability and extreme meteorological events.  Better understanding, identification and prioritization of adaptation options for coping with adverse effects of climate  A research challenge is to evaluate the feasibility, costs and benefits of potential adaptation options, measures, and technologies  Quantification of bio-climatic limitations of prevalent plant species  Continuation of studies on the regional differences in adaptive capacity Implementation  Identification of population at risks and lag time in climate change impacts  Include climate change in management policy and institutions  Consideration of non-stationary climate in the design of engineering structures  Implications of climate change for water and air health and environmental standards  To address the pragmatic information needs of managers who are responsible for adaptation Key uncertainties and research needs.