Anticipatory governance: Theories of change in environmental outlooks Sietske Veenman and Pieter Leroy

Content Context and focus Theory of change Method Environmental Outlooks Anticipated conclusions Questions

Context and focus (1/3) While thinking about the future is hard, there is plenty of initiatives to work with the future The environmental field has a strong tradition in future studies/outlooks Future studies/outlooks try to anticipate the future by sketching desirable, plausible and feasible futures This paper investigates how environmental outlooks frame the future and, while doing so, inform governance strategies for long term issues.

Context and focus (2/3) Frames are a set of believes and meanings that are (to be) shared throughout a number of people or groups within society. This also holds for images about the future (As there are no future facts, all there is about futures, is framing). Environmental outlooks are systematic ways of framing futures. They comprehend cognitive, normative and other information

Context and focus (3/3) Anticipatory governance has a three step framework Here: Anticipation future and future analysis Limitation of forecasting and suggests to explore broad range of possible futures Not just develop and analyse such futures Also be able to interprete and appreciate different futures studies in terms the theory of change and framing

Theory of change (1/3) Like frames, theories of change do not refer to scientific theories, yet to the amalgam of ideas, conceptions, wishes and hypotheses that (policy) practitioners have about the causal processes and mechanisms of present/future society, and about how societal change could result from policy programmes. (// concept ‘policy beliefs’ by/with Sabatier) To us, ToC is a heuristic tool to analyse future framing

Theory of change (2/3) Quintessence of theory of change: the (largely not outspoken) ideas and ambitions about what the main drivers of societal change are, what their positive and negative impacts are likely to be, and what responses society/politics could anticipate these impacts and change these drivers Examples: drivers: population, economy, technology impacts: poverty, inequity, climate change, different environmental domains, etc responses: policy programmes, initiated by states, markets and/ or civil society.

Theory of change (3/3) Theory of change comprehends certain concepts, certain assumptions on causality, on certain preferences and priorities about how the world is (world view frame) and similarly about how the world is likely to be (probable future) and/or should be in a foreseeable future (desirable future), through the use of certain interventions Thus: mix of cognitive and normative elements.

Method (work to be done) Qualitative text analysis Two-step framing method, based upon the ‘micro-discourse analysis’ -First reading of all four environmental outlooks, screening the text as a ‘holistic construct’ -Second, selecting relevant passages, dealing with important drivers, impacts and proposed strategies Stay close to the tekst, using many quotes

Environmental outlooks Sample holds futures studies from governmental bodies, advisory bodies/scientific institutes and NGOs -EEA, State and Outlook 2010; assessment of global megatrends -GEO 5, the ‘Global Environment Outlook’ of the UNEP -German Advisory Council on Global Change, World in transition. A social contract for sustainability -Greenpeace, Energy (r)evolution, WWF, Living planet report, 2014

UNEP Change is possible through human activity Drivers: -population and economic development -Being in a web of interconnections with other drivers (Likely) impact: -Domain specific (land, water, atmosphere, etc) -Trend analyses, also when using scenarios Responses: -Policy and knowledge seem to be an important element, sometimes combined with technology -The state is the dominant actor to initiate change and they need to cooperate (implementation, support technological innovation) -Plead for a multi-stakeholder-approach not clarified

WBGU Change is possible with an actor approach Drivers: -Carbon based economic development (Likely) impact: -Focussed on different themes: climate change, desertification, water, etc. due to carbon economy -Mainly trend analysis to describe impacts Responses: -Different transformative scenarios, but overall: -State is the primary responsible actor to initiate the transformation to a carbon neutral economy (stimulating technology). -However, through participatory multi-stakeholder approach in the form of a social contract with civil society (collective responsibility, active partner, empowering)

Anticipated conclusions Outlooks frame the future by pointing to necessary change in economic development as important driver of societal change In the governance strategies on long term issues are focused upon categorized (likely) environmental issues (impact), Yet government plays in general an important role and civil society is mentioned, but the specific role is undefined, but: who is the author?