IMPACT 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 1 Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty IMPACT Investigation of Extreme Flood Processes And Uncertainty

IMPACT 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 2 Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty IMPACT Investigation of ExtreMe Flood Processes And UnCertainTy

IMPACT 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 3 Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty IMPACT Investigation of Extreme Flood Processes and Uncertainty An overview

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 4 What is IMPACT? A research programme supported by the European Commission under the fifth framework programme and contributing to the implementation of the Generic Activity on Natural and Technological Hazards within the Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development Programme Some (FC cost)partners are also supported through national funding (e.g. HR Wallingford via the UK Defra / EA joint research programme; SWECO via Norwegian National Dam safety project etc.)

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 5 What is IMPACT? A 3 year research programme: –started Dec 2001; –ends Nov 2004 A Project comprising 11 partners from 10 countries [See brochure, CD ROMS from previous workshops and website] [

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 6 The problem to be solved... “The assessment and reduction of risks from extreme flooding caused by natural events or the failure of dams and flood defence structures” (Structures = dams, weirs, sluices, flood embankments, dikes, tailings dams etc.)

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 7 The problem to be solved... “To manage and minimise (flood) risks effectively it is necessary to be able to identify hazards and vulnerability in a consistent and reliable manner, to have good knowledge of structure behaviour in emergency situations, and to understand the potential consequences of failure in order to allow effective contingency planning for public safety”

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 8 Scientific Objectives & Approach Objectives are to: Advance scientific knowledge / understanding Develop predictive tools / methods in five areas:

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 9 Scientific Objectives & Approach Breaching of embankments (dams & flood defences) (WP2) Flood propagation through valley and urban areas (WP3) Movement of sediment (WP4) Quantifying risk and uncertainty (WP5) Geophysics and field data collection (WP6) Based upon recommendations from CADAM and UK RTD

IMPACT 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 10 Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty CADAM Concerted Action on Dambreak Modelling

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 11 CADAM Concerted Action means… Integration of partners existing R&D programme Focus on numerical modelling of dambreak shifting on to include breach, sediments, risk assessment Identification of R&D needs feeding into creation of European Commission FP5 work programme

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 12 Four workshops in 2 years covering a range of dambreak related topics: CADAM

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 13 CADAM - Outputs 4 workshops covering range of dambreak topics Proceedings online Guidance document: “Dambreak modelling guidelines and best practice” Project Report (detailed findings and recommended R&D) –Total of 31 specific conclusions M/CADAM/index.html

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IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 15 Scientific Objectives & Approach Sediment Movement [WP4] Flood Propagation [WP3] Breach Formation [WP2] Risk & uncertainty Assessment of individual and combined uncertainty Implications for End User Applications [WP5] Geophysics / Field Data [WP6]

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 16 Scientific Objectives & Approach Generic approach is via a combination of: Fieldwork Laboratory physical modelling Desk analysis Computational modelling including a focus upon assessment of process uncertainty in all areas

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 17 Benefits of the IMPACT Project Reduction of risk through: improved understanding of extreme processes, hence improved understanding of associated risks to the public, environment, assets etc. improved reliability of modelling tools improved understanding of modelling tools and results, leading to more appropriate application of predictions (e.g. emergency planning)

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 18 Some Key Aspects of Implementation The Overall Approach To keep a focus on overall objectives and application by end users To complement and benefit from other National & International R&D (interaction with additional organisations wherever possible) End user take up / application of results –Deliverables to be used / integrated into national or organisation specific programmes

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 19 Conclusions / Deliverables (Draft) summary papers in notes WP2 Breach formation: –Understanding the breach formation process –Existing models; development of models; performance of models –Breach case study data; factors affecting breach location

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 20 Conclusions / Deliverables WP3: Flood Propagation: –Understanding flow behaviour in urban areas –Comparing different modelling approaches for simulating urban flooding –Improving the accuracy of flood propagation modelling in natural topographies

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 21 Conclusions / Deliverables WP4: Sediment Movement –Understanding and modelling near field sediment movement; our ability to accurately predict flood and sediment; new approaches –Understanding and modelling far field sediment movement; our ability to accurately predict flood and sediment; new approaches

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 22 Conclusions / Deliverables WP5: Uncertainty modelling –Understanding uncertainty within modelling –Simple approach to assessing magnitude of uncertainty –Application to case study –Implications for end users of flood modelling data

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 23 Conclusions / Deliverables WP6: Geophysics and field data –Assessing performance of geophysical investigation techniques for assessing embankment integrity –Development of a rapid assessment technique for rapid, economical assessment of long lengths of flood defence embankment –Collection of field data relating to embankment failure; data relating to embankment condition, structure and failure process

IMPACT Investigation of extreme flood Processes and uncertainty 3-5th November 20044th IMPACT Project Workshop Zaragoza 24 Immediate Implementation... 4th IMPACT Workshop hosted here at Zaragoza Wed amTous case study - propagation modelling Wed pmUncertainty / Workshops Thur Overview of each work package Key results, conclusions Fri amCase study applications; Discussion & review; Overall conclusions [Fri pm IMPACT team meeting] ____________

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