© OECD/IEA 2012 Energy Technology Perspectives for a Clean Energy Future Ms. Maria van der Hoeven Executive Director International Energy Agency Madrid, 20 September 2012

Key messages 1. A sustainable energy future is still feasible and technologies exist that can take us there 2. Despite the potential of technologies, progress is too slow at the moment 3. A clean energy future requires systemic thinking and deployment of a variety of technologies 4. It even makes financial sense to do it! 5. Government policy is decisive in unlocking the potential

Energy demand and emissions have doubled in the past 40 years From 6000 Mtoe to Mtoe Rapid demand growth outside OECD Source: IEA statistics CO 2 emissions from 14Gt to 30Gt Since 2005, non-OECD countries emit more than OECD

ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures © OECD/IEA DS where the world is now heading, with potentially devastating results The 6°C Scenario 4DS reflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency The 4°C Scenario 2DS a vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced CO 2 and other Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions The 2°C Scenario

© OECD/IEA 2012 ETP-2012: need to halve CO 2 by 2050 To achieve ambitious climate goals, the world needs to cut energy- related CO 2 emissions by 50% from today’s levels… …but as populations grow and energy consumption inevitably rises, the reduction challenge is even higher: a gap of Gt in 2050

Clean energy: slow lane to fast track © OECD/IEA 2012 Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track

Energy RD&D has slipped in priority © OECD/IEA 2012

A smart, sustainable energy system © OECD/IEA 2012 A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system

© OECD/IEA 2012 Renewables need to dominate EU electricity Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix. Other renewables Wind Solar Nuclear Solar Hydro Fossil w/o CCS Fossil w CCS

© OECD/IEA 2012 Renewables: mid-term forecast for Spain Drivers: Abundant renewable resources Strong grid and advanced integration of variable renewable sources Challenges: Overcapacity of electricity system Need to correct for persistently high tariff deficit

© OECD/IEA 2012 Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the 2DS and the 4DS. From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly. Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO 2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario. 2DS4DS Natural gas as a transitional fuel

© OECD/IEA 2012 Electric vehicles need to come of age © OECD/IEA 2012 More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050 Global passenger LDV sales (million)

© OECD/IEA 2012 Industry must become more efficient © OECD/IEA 2012 Significant potential for enhanced energy efficiency can be achieved through best available technologies. GtCO 2

© OECD/IEA 2012 Investment in clean energy pays off © OECD/IEA 2012 Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate three dollars in return. USD trillion

Recommendations to Governments © OECD/IEA Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden fuel” of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)

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