Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… CAPT Russell Smith Commanding Officer Mr. Bill Kerr Technical Director CDR Sean Robinson Executive Officer James A. Vermeulen Data Ingest Team Supervisor Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center COOP Planning

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… 22 COPC AI FNMOC COOP 4 November 2015 COPC – Fall 2015

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… 3 Missions-Functions-Tasks/Capabilities FNMOC COOP Mission Essential Functions COPC Related Exchanges and Impacts Summary Questions Outline

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… Mission-Functions-Tasks Mission Enable fleet safety and warfighting effectiveness of Naval, Joint and Coalition forces by developing and providing assured Global and Regional Numerical Environmental Prediction and applied decision-making services in an A2AD (Anti Access Area Denial) Environment Functions Produce a variety of METOC products tailored to the mission requirements of DoD, to include: – optimum path flight plans, specific ocean state data, custom (high resolution) weather prediction areas, operational climatology support, go/no-go decision tools, tactical decision aids (TDA), weapon system inputs proven to improve performance and accuracy, and a variety of other mission-critical METOC data, products, and services Serve as DISA Node for 12 DoD organizations on central California coast Tasks Operate a High Performance Computing Center (HPCC) with capabilities at every classification level Collaborate with NRL, NCEP, NESDIS, and 557 th Weather Wing (WW) Primary host of Navy Enterprise Portal-Oceanography (NEP-Oc) and alternate host of Flight Weather Briefer (FWB) servers

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… Core Capabilities 1.Assured Global and Regional Numerical Atmospheric and Oceanographic Prediction at all classification levels 2.Climatology support to Naval and DoD Operations and Exercises at all classification levels 3.Produce and disseminate METOC products tailored to mission requirements Through “Battlespace On Demand,” FNMOC delivers Battlespace Awareness and directly supports Integrated Fires Cybersecurity-compliant systems and communications paths directly support Assured Command and Control

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… 6 Designate a back-up or alternate for these functions should FNMOC lose capabilities from anywhere between 12 hrs - 30 days – Reference (a) NAVMETOCCOMINST , 20 Aug 08 (b) FCM-P Departments Set Specific COOP Guidelines based on MEFs Priority  Identifies Key Personnel  Identifies Alternate Site Facility  Identifies Appropriate Documents/Software/Equipment Requirements FNMOC COOP – Instruction

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… 7 FNMOC COOP Manager (CPM) is responsible for maintaining and updating this plan. The plan details four phases of a COOP Relocation Team execution.  Phase 0, Pre-event planning and mitigation. Keeping information up to date, recall rosters, tests, exercises, etc.  Phase 1, Activation and Notification. How personnel would be notified during on and off-duty hours.  Phase 2, Alternate Operating Facility Operations. Three personnel will shift to Naval Oceanographic Office, Stennis Space Center, MS  Phase 3, Reconstitution. Once ordered, personnel return to FNMOC in the most feasible and expeditious manner possible. Services will be restored at FNMOC in accordance with the FNMOC ITCP and power up checklists. COOP Management and Phases

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… 8  Assured Numerical Weather Prediction  Navy Enterprise Portal - Oceanography (NEP-Oc) Host  Naval Flight Weather Briefer  CEEMS/BALPARS  Web-based Search-and-Rescue Capability  ACAF / Operational Climatology  Distribution of OGC compliant products and services. (e.g. GeoServer capability)  Satellite Imagery, Processing, and Distribution for COPC  Delivery and Distribution of Model Output (e.g. CAGIPS) FNMOC COOP/Mission Essential Functions

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… COOP MEFs and Timelines 9 Mission Essential FunctionsPreferred Continuity Methods Recovery Time Objective (RTO) Navy Enterprise Portal – Oceanography (NEP-OC) Host Naval Oceanography Portal is a one stop shopping place for all Navy METOC products and support. FNMOC houses the hardware for the NEP-OC which is populated by all CNMOC commands independently. Fail-over switch to host at Naval Oceanographic Office, Stennis Space Center, MS If failover unavailable, the FNMOC COOOP Activation Msg directs users to other websites for services and products. Degradation: If failover is unavailable, no “one stop shopping.” No FNMOC pages available. 4 hrs Naval Flight Weather Briefer Allows pilots to request and receive an en-route, flight- weather forecast (DD-175-1) from NAFC, using the web. Fail-over switch to host at Naval Oceanographic Office, Stennis Space Center, MS 6 hrs CEEMS/BALPARS Air density and wind can affect the RV (re-entry vehicle) in the final stages of the trajectory. To compensate, FNMOC produces detailed weather forecasts over the target areas. BALPARS approximate the total effect that wind and air density at different altitudes would have over the final stages of an RV’s flight path. The CDO NMCI account has back-up CEEMS/BALPARS messages already created out to Tau 96. CRT will recode CEEMS/BALPARS to use the Air Force numerical weather prediction output parameters (rather than NAVGEM). Degradation: No automation, leading to increased latency. 12 hrs Assured Numerical Weather Predictions (NAVGEM, COAMPS, WW3, etc.) Provides assured global and meso-scale, high resolution numerical weather models. Output parameters (winds, sig. wave height, pressure, etc.) enable fleet safety and provide physical battlespace awareness. The FNMOC COOOP Activation Msg directs users to other websites, specifically 16 th Weather Squadron, for services and products. Degradation: No FNMOC or “assured” models, no customized products or RFS. 2 hrs

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… COOP MEFs and Timelines (cont.) 10 Mission Essential FunctionsPreferred Continuity Methods Recovery Time Objective (RTO) Web-based Search-and-Rescue Capability Search And Rescue (SAR) model generates global probability maps, search recommendations and reports using environmental model data. COOP Activation Msg directs Ashore users to Naval Oceanographic Office and the Fleet Weather Centers for support requests in international or foreign waters. Afloat users directed to GFMPL-based search and rescue tool. Degradation: FNMOC WebSAR tool not available. Fleet has less familiarity with other tools. 2 hrs Operational Climatology Operational climatology utilizes 30 years of reanalysis fields and data to enable fleet safety and physical battlespace awareness, and provides critical long-term planning capability. CRT will establish a climo capability at NAVO. The fly-away team will supplement NOAA, and NAVO datasets with FNMOC wave data and analysis tools (saved on a DvD). Degradation: No automation, leading to some increased latency in product delivery. 12 hrs Assured Satellite Imagery and Products Imagery and processed products (dust, fog, contrail, etc.) enable fleet safety and provide physical battlespace awareness. COOP Activation Msg directs users to other sites and agencies for similar products. Degradation: No FNMOC or “assured” imagery or products, no customized products or RFS. 2 hrs

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… 11 Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited OPCSendReceive NAVO MCSST products from N18 & N19, Metop A & B, S-NPP, and GOES 13 & 15, Altimetry derived products, SWH, WS, and SSHa, and HYCOM NAAPS AOD and NAVGEM and COAMPS, DMSP SSMI/S xDRs (ice, wind, rain rate) NCEP Via NWS TOC GTS (Central Operations Silver Spring) WMO formatted Observations, NOAAPORT, GFS Deterministic and Ensemble NWP grids, Wave Watch III NAVGEM, Wave Watch III NWP deterministic and ensemble grids, various ancillary data and products 557 Wx Wing NAVGEM, Wave Watch III NWP deterministic and ensemble grids, various ancillary data and products, S-NPP data In-situ observations, Predator, DMSP OLS and SSMIS, Cloud Data, Snow data NESDIS DMSP SSMIS, WINDSAT, JPSS NAVGEM and NAAPS ancillary data All NOAA/NASA/Foreign satellite xDRs, NOAA unique EDRs and NDE derived environmental data records (EDRs) Center Products Sent to and Received from OPCs

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… Data Acquisition Processing Exchange (DAPE) MOA OTN Comms DMSP POLAR ORBITERS DMSP POLAR ORBITERS NOAA POLAR ORBITERS (Vis/IR,SSMI/S Vis/IR,SSMI/S, SSM/I AMSU, HIRS, MHS AVHRR GAC-1a Meteosat-7/10, GOES, RSDRs, FTW, MTSAT Cloud, Snow Soundings, SST, AMSU-A/B & HIRS 1-b, Cloud, Snow, Altimeter, Scatterometer, GOES-W, Meteosat-7/10, FTW RSDRs, TRMM Microwave Imagery/xDRs (SSMI/S), WDSAT SST, SSH, SWH Altimeter AVHRR & HIRS-1b, Altimeter SST, SSM/I/S, WDSAT RSDRs, Cloud, Snow Meteosat-7, TRMM, MHS ATOVS Soundings, AMSU-A/B & HIRS 1b, AMSR-E, MODIS Scatterometer COLOR CODE Processing Responsibilities DATA Received VIA OTN Satellite Data Transmission F13, F15, F16, F17, F18, F19 – SSMI/S F13, F15, F16, F17,F18, F19 – OLS Vis/IR FNMOC 557 th WW NESDIS NAVO 145 Mbits/sec Meteosat-7, ATOVS, TRMM, AMSU GOES FTW 12

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited Satellite Data (GOES/POES) ~ 50 sensors over 30 million observations a day Observational Data ~ 500K unique obs received/day Atmospheric Models/Forecast degraded Models could continue for ~24 hrs w/o new data Global (NAVGEM) -> 24 hr Regional (COAMPS) -> 24 hr Input Data Loss Impacts

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… IMPACTS FNMOC NWP and Data Assimilation Satellite Data have become the single most important component of the global observing network for NWP Σ Sat Winds = Σ Sat Radiances =

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… Summary: FNMOC Out If FNMOC is offline, what is impact to other OPCs? –Short Duration (<3 days) FNMOC only OPC to provide DMSP SSMIS and Windsat xDRs in pre-designated formats Loss of DMSP SSMIS (ice, water vapor, radiances), and atmospheric NWP modeling capabilities (Global/Region products) Loss of input to ensembles –Long Duration (>30 days) Loss of DMSP SSMIS (ice, water vapor, radiances), and atmospheric NWP modeling capabilities (Global/Region products) FNMOC provides ensemble NWP and Hurricane Track data for the Consensus (Single Point of Failure) Loss of input to ensembles If FNMOC is offline, what is impact to customer base? –Short Duration (<3 days) Degraded products to Fleet and DoD customers –Long Duration (>30 days) Inability to provide critical products and support to Fleet and Non-DoD customers Approved for Public Release; Distribution Unlimited

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… Summary: Others OPCs Out What is impact to FNMOC if other OPC(s) are offline? –Short Duration (<3 days) Degraded modeling/forecasting capabilities and inferior products to Fleet and Non-DoD customers –NOAA/OSPO -- loss of POES inputs for atmospheric NWP radiance data assimilation –557 th WW – Loss of S-NPP, Cloud, Snow data input for atmospheric data assimilation and processing –NAVO – loss of inputs for NCODA or oceanographic data assimilation and modeling/forecasting –Long Duration (>30 days) Degraded modeling/forecasting capabilities and inferior products to Fleet and DoD customers –NOAA/OSPO -- loss of POES/GOES inputs for data assimilation, Tropical Cyclone Intensity/Monitoring, Sat_focus web page –557 th WW – Loss of S-NPP inputs/in-situ observations for atmospheric (NAVDAS-AR) data assimilation and NWP models –NAVO – loss of inputs for Oceanographic data assimilation and modeling/forecasting 16

Fleet Numerical… Atmospheric & Oceanographic Prediction Enabling Fleet Safety and Decision Superiority… Questions?