From Task CL-02 to a GEO FLAGSHIP on Sustainable Global Carbon and GHG Observations and Analysis Antonio Bombelli, Werner Kutsch and Alex Vermeulen IG 3 IS GCP CEOS ICOS Japanflux NEON GAW OTHERS! IAGOS SOCAt ARGO ICOS OTHERS! ICOS

From Task CL-02 to a GEO FLAGSHIP on Sustainable Global Carbon and GHG Observations and Analysis Antonio Bombelli, Werner Kutsch and Alex Vermeulen

Emissions Sinks What information and knowledge is needed? Not all the emissions remain into the atmosphere: ocean & land sinks “discount” We do not know how these 3 systems will behave in the future, in a changing climate

WHY a Carbon FLAGSHIP? To provide scientists and decision makers with i)More, quality-improved and standardized data and ii)reliable information to better understand carbon cycle and better address climate policies. Policy relevant use of carbon data and information: 1. Determine feasible and effective emission reduction pathways 2. Verify the effectiveness of mitigation policies, independent verification necessary to meet the objectives of future climate treaties. 3. Determine the baselines of carbon pools and fluxes. 4. Improve the ability to predict future changes 5. Science-based development and review of adaptation actions.

Observations Services Decisions The FLAGSHIP will include and link all along the value chain Data sharing Data management (incl. metadata) Capacity building Improve data harmonization Improve inter-operability Improve data accessibility (from indiv. infrastructures to GEOSS) From data to knowledge Model-Data Fusion projects Sustainability The Carbon FLAGSHIP - foundational elements to be effective: -Openness and inclusiveness: involve all relevant players -Not a new level of coordination, but a common frame to work together -Integration & Interoperability -Capacity building -To be global! Identifying observational gaps

Final aim: Global, integrated, comprehensive, financially sustaining, long-term observational system for carbon cycle and GHGs providing data for scientists and knowledge for policy makers and society. The path to this aim: 2015/2016 construction of the community as a ”candidate flagship” Infrastructures, networks, integration initiatives Members, Participating Organisations in GEO Private Sector Interim Steering Board Interim Coordinator Commitments for resources (the good news: there are already some seeds) Refining of overall concept 2017 – 2019 first workplan

Thank you for your attention!

$, €, ¥, £. Costs of climate change Costs of mitigation Uncertainty Reduced uncertainty Money invested in observation system to reduce uncertainty Primary benefit Money saved by reducing uncertainty

Relation Maturity: services are partly operational Ressources Next steps: 2016 construction of the community as a ”candidate flagship” Members, Participating Organisations, Private Sector Dedicated Steering Board Coordinator Refining of overall concept 2017 – 2019 first workplan Foundational Tasks 9 UN Conventions : UNFCCC, (sustainable data source for IPCC) 13 Monitoring and Evaluation 15 Capacity building coordination

ADDITIONAL SLIDES

This is from GCP It looked nicer than IPCC

Expected value C-flux from deforestation Probability Over-compliance to ensure that target is met Reduced Error (Courtesy of I. McCallum) Uncertainty (and cost!) reduction due to an advanced Global Carbon Observing System (REDD example) Current situation: not adequate enough observing system high uncertainty in the emission estimates high overcompliance to meet the target high cost! Required situation: improved observing system reduced uncertainty in the estimates less overcompliance to meet the target reduced cost! (GEOCARBON Benefit assessment by emissions reductions by avoiding deforestation)

Benefit Assessment of Improved Carbon Monitoring

(From: The pre-industrial (1750) atmospheric concentration was around 277ppm. This increased to around 400ppm in 2014 (+ 44%). We know well the past