Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

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Presentation transcript:

Introduction to Causal Analysis Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

What is a cause? Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

What is a cause? Farrokh Alemi Ph.D. for exercise

What is a Cause?

Fitting in clothes one size smaller

What is a Cause? … because I want to be healthy.

What is a Cause? My commitment and will power makes me exercise.

What is a Cause?

Root Cause Immediate cause Relapse Analyze & Understand Change

Cause and Effects Are Events

My spouse makes me exercise My spouse reminded me to exercise Causes are Temporary Events

All Causes Describe a Mechanism Root cause … Direct cause Effect

All Causes Describe a Mechanism Watching a late show Sleeping late Waking up late No exercise before work

The Impact of a Cause Is Not Certain

Watching a late show Sleeping late Waking up late Exercise before work

Causes Increase Likelihood of Effects Vacation Exercise

Causes Precede Effects Vacation Exercise

Causes Precede Effects Anticipation of going on vacation Exercise

Effect Cause Other causes Everything Is Not a Cause

Exercise Bike to work Make a bike route Everything Is Not a Cause

Exercise Bike to work Everything Is Not a Cause

Counterfactual

Got up early Phone call No exercise I got up early and almost did my morning exercise before I got interrupted by a call.

Counterfactual I could have exercised if I had gotten up early.

Counterfactual I would have exercised if I were on vacation.

Counterfactual Instead of getting up early to exercise I took my time and made a good breakfast.

Counterfactual

Get a ballInvite friends Play soccer Get right clothes Causes Working In Concert

Sell car and bike to work Give up space and park at far end of the lot Exercise Alternative Causes

Take Home Lesson New Thinking

Take Home Lesson A cause is an event that occurs sometimes

Take Home Lesson Precedes the effect

Take Home Lesson Co-occurs frequently with the effect

Take Home Lesson Absent cause, absent effect

Take Home Lesson Directly leads to the effect

Take Home Lesson Describes a mechanism

Take Home Lesson Can be modified

Take Home Lesson Search for Causes An event that occurs sometimes Frequently precedes the effect Absent causes, absent effect Directly leads to the effect Describes a mechanism Can be modified