Overview of the climate change policy landscape Fred Goede 27 August 2015 Mbombela

Purpose of this Presentation  International  United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  Conference of the Parties (COP) and COP21 in Paris  National  National Climate Change Response White Paper 2011  Progress and role of municipalities

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established in 1988 by the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), to provide a scientific view about climate change The UNFCCC established in 1992 at the Rio Earth Summit Sister conventions are on Biodiversity and Desertification; also Ramsar (wetlands) is related UNFCCC came into force in 1994; today 195 countries ratified Aim - preventing dangerous human interference with climate system

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Participating countries are called “Parties” – meeting annually at the Conference of the Parties (COP) Agenda typically includes GHG inventories and national progress, the IPCC science work, Clean Development Mechanism, post Kyoto mechanisms for targets, also mitigation and adaptation Industrialized countries have quantified economy wide emission targets for 2020 Developing countries have Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions that are in line with their national development objectives The legacy of 2011 COP17 held in SA is the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP), which remains on the Agenda for Paris (Dec‘15, COP21)

UNEP and WMO established the IPCC in 1988 Note WG1, WG2 and WG3; and the most recent is the 5 th Assessment (AR5) reports 2013/4

Term*Likelihood of the outcome Virtually certain99-100% probability Very likely90-100% probability Likely66-100% probability About as likely as not33-66% probability Unlikely0-33% probability Very unlikely0-10% probability Exceptionally unlikely0-1% probability * Additional terms may also be used – extremely likely: % probability, more likely than not: >50%-100% probability, extremely unlikely: 0-5% probability. One example - the science basis (WG1, AR5)

Outcome of science basis (IPCC WGI AR5)

Africa specific impacts – examples (1)Climate impacts 1 (Africa - IPCC WGII AR5)

Africa specific impacts – examples (2)Climate impacts 2 (Africa - IPCC WGII AR5)

Mitigation options (IPCC WGIII AR5)

RSA National Climate Change Response Published Nov 2011 prior to the COP19 in Durban and aligned to the UNFCCC requirements CONTENTS: Objectives Principles Strategy Adaptation Mitigation Response measures Flagship programmes Job creation Climate resilient development Resource mobilization Monitoring and Evaluation

NCCRWP Objectives and actions Objectives – Manage climate change impacts and contribute to stabilize emissions while enabling development Actions since NCCRWP publication include: Desired Emission Reduction Outcomes Emissions reporting and communication Mainstream resilient development + LTAS Monitoring and evaluation system

NCCRWP – role of municipalities is integrated Adaptation – Water, agriculture, health, biodiversity, urban, rural and coastal settlements, disaster risk reduction Mitigation – national emissions, potential, trajectory range, carbon budgets, inventories Integrated resource mobilization- finance, education, science and technology Monitoring and modelling requirements also outlined Mainstreaming climate resilience – policies, partnerships, coordination, communication, regulatory measures, market instruments, also institutional arrangements for national, provincial, parliament, IMCCC, IGCCC etc. … but local government to plan human settlements, provide infrastructure and services, ensure water and energy demand management, local disaster response, amongst others. Also to develop strategies and share knowledge…

NCCRWP 8 near term priority flagship programs 1.Climate change response public works – e.g. Working for Water, Fire, Energy, Spekboom… 2.Water conservation and demand management – e.g. strategy in sectors, rainwater harvesting… 3.Renewable energy – e.g. IRP2010 RE programme with DTI, DPE; solar water heating with DOE… 4.Energy efficiency & demand – e.g. DOE, DTI, DPW… 5.Transport – e.g. efficient vehicles, rail re-capitalization… 6.Waste management – e.g. DEA waste-to-energy 7.Carbon capture and sequestration 8.Adaptation research (LTAS) EXAMPLE - Phase 2 Adaptation Scenarios Factsheets Fact sheet 1: SADCSADC Fact sheet 2: Climate Info & Early Warning SystemsClimate Info & Early Warning Systems Fact sheet 3: Disaster Risk Reduction & ManagementDisaster Risk Reduction & Management Fact sheet 4: Human SettlementsHuman Settlements Fact sheet 5: Food SecurityFood Security Fact sheet 6: EconomicsEconomics Fact sheet 7: ScenariosScenarios

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