University of Manchester Oct Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info The Ostrich or the Phoenix? … responding to the challenges of climate change …is economic development possible without fossil fuels?

Nature Geoscience (doi: /ngeo2559) Mon. 12 th Oct 2015

Anderson & Bows-Larkin Beyond ‘dangerous climate change Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society Jan 2011 “… this is not a message of futility, but a wake-up call of where our rose-tinted spectacles have brought us. Real hope, if it is to arise at all, will do so from a bare assessment of the scale of the challenge we now face.”

Latest science reports from the IPCC  Offered no solace to our fossil-fuel hungry world  The mitigation message has changed little in the last twenty five years

So what has changed?  200 billion tonnes of CO 2 emitted since last IPCC report in 2007  Annual emissions ~60% higher than at time of the first report in 1990  Atmospheric CO 2 levels higher than during past 800 thousand years

So what has changed? & importantly in terms of temperature rise, explicit recognition it’s carbon budgets that matter, not long-term (2050) targets

We repeatedly recommit to: … make our fair contribution to… “To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of equity” Copenhagen Accord, 2009

My headline conclusion: Avoiding “dangerous climate change” (stabilisation at 2°C) remains a feasible goal of the international community Just

My hypothesis: to deliver on 2°C But surely … we can do it with low-carbon energy supply ? (wind, solar, hydro, nuclear, etc.) … we need deep & immediate reductions in energy demand

My hypothesis: to deliver on 2°C In 2015, it’s all about timing!

Thinking about this ‘graphically’

UN Climate change panel established (IPCC)

RIO Earth Summit

UN Climate change panel established (IPCC) RIO Earth Summit Kyoto Protocol adopted

UN Climate change panel established (IPCC) RIO Earth Summit Kyoto Protocol adopted K.P comes into force

UN Climate change panel established (IPCC) RIO Earth Summit Kyoto Protocol adopted Copenhagen Accord K.P comes into force

UN Climate change panel established (IPCC) RIO Earth Summit Copenhagen Accord Rio + 20 Kyoto Protocol adopted K.P comes into force

UN Climate change panel established (IPCC) RIO Earth Summit Copenhagen Accord Rio + 20 … despite economic downturn, emissions continue to rise 2 to 3% p.a. Kyoto Protocol adopted K.P comes into force

… & as we build hi-carbon  power stations  Infrastructures  buildings  aircraft & ships Lock-in 30 to 100+ yrs

i.e. 4°C to 6°C by 2100

Yet for a “likely” chance of 2°C

So recent history supports the IEA view … that the CO 2 trend “is perfectly in line with a temperature increase of 6 degrees Celsius, which would have devastating consequences for the planet.” Fatih Birol - IEA chief economist

… but what about 2°C?

4°C to 6°C “likely” chance of 2°C

Too early for new low carbon supply & demand Reduce Demand Supply

& demand Reduce Demand Supply

& demand Reduce Demand Supply “To hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius, and take action to meet this objective consistent with science and on the basis of equity ”

Assuming poorer (non-Annex 1) nations: 1. Collectively peak their emissions by Then rapidly increase mitigation to ~10% p.a. by 2035

… then, for 2°C, wealthy (Annex 1) nations require: At least 10% reduction in emissions year on year from now, … equivalent to: 40% reduction by ~2018 (c.f. 1990) 70%~ %~2030 i.e. RADICAL EMISSION REDUCTIONS

If 2°C is too challenging … what about a 4°C future

Global impacts: 4°C +8°C Europe +6°C China °C N. America Hottest days … add to heat-wave temps’

Global impacts: 4°C Sea level rise cm rise, higher in low latitudes

Global impacts: 4°C Food crops ~40% reduction in maize, wheat & rice yields in low latitudes

There is a widespread view that 4°C is…  Incompatible with an organised global community  Beyond ‘adaptation’  Devastating to eco-systems  Unlikely to be stable (‘tipping points) … consequently … 4°C should be avoided at ‘all’ costs

Returning to 2°C… is it still a viable goal?

Hypothesis : yes Equity/behaviour - a small group to make radical & early reductions Technology - demand side can deliver early & large reductions Growth - there are alternative measures of a good life … just

Equity: Pareto’s 80:20 rule 80% of something relates to … 20% of those involved ~80% of emissions from ~20% of population run this 3 times ~50% of emissions from ~1% of population Or more realistically: ~40% to 60% from ~1% to 5%

who are the high-emitters?  Climate scientists  OECD (& other) academics  Anyone who annually takes a long-haul flight or two … 2°C mitigation is principally a short-term challenge; i.e. really now to so is mostly about the few not the many … it is a consumption and not a population issue!

Technology  Efficient petrol/diesel cars  A++ refrigerators

 EU & US ~12-15% of emissions  Sector’s emissions claimed to be intractable  ~270 petrol/diesel models <100gCO2/km … at no price premium  2/3 of car travel is by vehicles 8yrs old or younger Private road transport (Cars)

So in this ‘intractable’ sector: - With no additional capital cost - Reduced operating cost -Identical infrastructure -Same employment & companies 50% to 70% reduction in ~10yrs Standards & existing petrol/diesel cars

 A++ refrigerator uses 80% less energy than an A rated  Phased replacement of all A-rated (& below) with A++  CO 2 saving of ~60% in 10 years Refrigeration

 Welfare: health, life expectancy  Literacy rates  Employment/income  Safety & security  Equity; time with family & friend's Growth converts the heterogeneous into the homogeneous (£,€,HUF) In itself it has no meaningful value Growth : but what really matters?

Growth : a misguided proxy?  the economist’s economy has stalled!  self-regulated markets have failed to self regulate Faced with systemic issues - neoclassical (‘free’ market) economics is in disarray - incremental approaches to climate change have not delivered We have an unprecedented opportunity to think differently

A Radical Plan for 2°C – 2 phases 1.Radical reductions in energy demand from now to ~ Marshall plan build programme of low-carbon energy supply … with 100% penetration by

We must escape the reductionist shackles of a twentieth century mind-set if we’re ever to resolve the systemic challenges of the twenty-first century This will demand leadership, courage, innovative thinking, engaged teams & difficult choices Ultimately …

“at every level the greatest obstacle to transforming the world is that we lack the clarity and imagination to conceive that it could be different.” Robert Unger and a message of hope to finish …

Thank you University of Manchester Oct Kevin Anderson web: kevinanderson.info