May 11, 2015 DEMOGRAPHIC STUDY FOR THE WARREN TOWNSHIP SCHOOLS

 Provide demographic services for school districts in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan area.  Performed demographic studies for approximately 100 school districts in NY & NJ.  Demographic consultant for the NYC Public Schools since STATISTICAL FORECASTING

 Executive Director  Doctorate from Rutgers University Graduate School of Education in Educational Statistics and Measurement  Numerous publications on school demography and presentations nationally  Testified as an expert witness in school demography in several Administrative Law court hearings. RICHARD S. GRIP ED.D.

 Project grade-by-grade enrollments from through  Analyze district historical enrollments, birth and fertility rates, community population trends, and age structure  Impact of new developments on enrollment PURPOSE OF THE STUDY

WARREN TOWNSHIP HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED POPULATIONS

 80.9% White (86.3% White in 2000), 15.1% Asian, 5.4% Hispanic  27.8% of population is under 18  Median age = 43.8 years (NJ=39.0)  19% of population is foreign-born (NJ=21%). India is largest source, representing 26% of foreign-born population. China was largest source in  Bachelor’s Degree or Higher = 62.8%  Median family income = $167,750  5,258 housing units, of which 95% are 1-unit homes (attached or detached)  Nearly 9% of housing units are renter-occupied.  Median value of owner-occupied unit = $669K WARREN TOWNSHIP DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE

SCHOOL LOCATIONS

 District’s October 2014 enrollment was 1,839.  Enrollment has declined for 5 consecutive years.  Loss of 432 students (-19.0%) since  Cohort-Survival Ratio Method (CSR) was used to project enrollments five years into the future. HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT TRENDS

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS TO

HISTORICAL ENROLLMENTS BY LEVEL

 Ratios are calculated for each grade progression. (Ex st graders in become 95 2 nd graders in = 0.95)  Survival ratios were computed for ten historical years. Eight of 9 average ratios were above  Averages were then computed and used to project future enrollments. ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD COHORT SURVIVAL RATIO

 Negative kindergarten replacement (KR) has occurred for past 9 years, ranging from students per year.  Average loss of 113 students in last 4 years.  Negative KR- Number of graduating 8 th grade students is greater than the number of kindergarten students replacing them in the next year.  Negative KR was 114 students in , as th graders graduated in and were replaced by 144 kindergarten students in KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

HISTORICAL KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

TOTAL ENROLLMENT CHANGE VS. KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

 Births in Warren have been declining: 191 in 2002, 83 in  Births are used to project kindergarten students 5 years later.  Fertility rates are similar to those in Somerset County and New Jersey. BIRTHS

BIRTH RATES AND BIRTH-TO- KINDERGARTEN SURVIVAL RATIOS Birth Year Warren Twp. Number of Births Kindergarten Students Five Years Later Birth-to-Kindergarten Survival Ratio N/A N/A

HISTORICAL BIRTHS IN WARREN TOWNSHIP

AGE PYRAMID WARREN TOWNSHIP 2000

AGE PYRAMID WARREN TOWNSHIP 2010

AGE PYRAMID NEW JERSEY 2010

 75 new housing units (35 condos, 40 SF)  Largest is redevelopment of former textile mill on Dubois Road with 35 “age-targeted” condos.  Various stages of approval or under construction.  Potential for 33 public schoolchildren NEW HOUSING IN WARREN TOWNSHIP

HOMES BUILT BY DECADE

BASELINE ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS

PROJECTED KINDERGARTEN REPLACEMENT

PROJECTED ENROLLMENT BY GRADE CONFIGURATION HistoricalPK , Projected CSR 5-YR CSR 6-YR CSR 5-YR CSR 6-YR , ,

SCHOOL PROJECTIONS School Actual Enrollment Projected Enrollment Difference A.L. Tomaso (K-5) Central (K-5) Mount Horeb (PK-5) Woodland (K-5) Warren Middle School (6-8)

CAPACITY ANALYSIS SchoolCapacity Actual Enrollment Difference Projected Enrollment Difference A.L. Tomaso (K-5) Central (K-5) Mount Horeb (PK-5) Woodland (K-5) Warren Middle School (6-8)