AN OBSERVATORY APPROACH TO ENABLE ECOLOGICAL FORECASTING: THE ROLE OF THE NATIONAL ECOLOGICAL OBSERVATORY NETWORK Hank Loescher | National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) Director Strategic Projects | CEO Office

lots and lots of data… 9/ /2009 2/2011 3/2010 7/ /2014

Data as a National Resource NSF Director Suresh’s emphasis on: “Era of Observations” “Era of Data and Information” March 2012: White House $200M “Big Data” initiative: NSF NIH DOE DOD DARPA USGS 3

Increasing importance on designing new x-discipline data structures to support policy/decision-making Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs) Grand Challenge for Environmental Sciences Questions of societal importance within and among these SBAs Understanding Earth System requires information integration Broad Adoption and Evolution of Cultures Weather AgricultureBiodiversity Climate Disasters Energy Ecosystems Water Health 4 Global themes – Global Solutions

OUTLINE NEON Grand Challenges Overview Design and Design Process of NEON Ecological Forecasting Interoperability and International Efforts NEON Institutional Structure 5

Grand Challenge areas 1.Biodiversity 2.Biogeochemical cycles 3.Climate change 4.Ecohydrology 5.Infectious disease 6.Invasive species 7.Land use NRC (National Research Council) Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences. Washington DC: National Academies Press. NRC NEON: Addressing the Nation’s Environmental Challenges. Washington DC: National Academies Press. 6

Grand Challenge areas How will ecosystems [of the United States] and their components respond to changes in natural- and human- induced forcings such as climate, land use, and invasive species across a range of spatial and temporal scales? And, what is the pace and pattern of the responses? How do the internal responses and feedbacks of biogeochemistry, biodiversity, hydroecology and biotic structure and function interact with changes in climate, land use, and invasive species? And, how do these feedbacks vary with ecological context and spatial and temporal scales? 7

Grand Challenge areas The goal of NEON is to enable understanding and forecasting of the impacts of climate change, land use change and invasive species on continental-scale ecology by providing infrastructure to support research, education and environmental management in these areas. Responses Interactions Feedbacks Forcing Abiotic drivers of ecological and biological change. Processes mediating the response of ecological systems, feedbacks influencing the drivers Ecological and organismal responses. Biotic processes 8

Balancing Scientific Creativity with Baseline measurements Hypotheses testing: ‘what can we do?’ Rationale for long term observations Capabilities-based (network development) Additional organizational complexity is often layered ProCon ✔ Scientific creativity ✔ ✕ Comfort-level for scientists and bottom-up approaches ✕ Complexity becomes open- ended problem ✕ Governance is often difficult, and not extensible ✕ Difficult planning for Program Officers/Sponsors ✕ Problematic for long term sustainability QuestionsGrantExp DesignConstructionData CollectionAnalysesPublications Move on to the next thing Scientist’s Approach to Project Science 9

NEON’s Scientific / System Engineering Approach Environmental Science Questions (Hypothesis Based Questions) Identify Needed Information (What are the Data Products?) Science Requirements (Science Sub-System Requirements ) Technical and Design Requirements (e.g., for Engineering, CyberInfrastructure) REQUIREMENTSREQUIREMENTS REQUIREMENTSREQUIREMENTS INFORMATIONINFORMATION Grand Challenge Science Questions Raw Data Collection 10

Balancing Scientific Creativity with Baseline measurements Questions (scientists) Grant (scientists) Exp Design (scientists) Construction (Engineering, Permitting) Data Collection (Engineering Analyses (scientists) Publications (scientists) Formalized hierarchical requirements Asks ‘what must be done?’ Measurements are considered baseline Steps are parsed out (see diagram) ProCon ✔ New roles for scientists, both internally and externally ✔ Clearly defines scope, budget, schedule, risks ✔ Complexity is inherently planned for ✔ Develops planning horizons for Program Officers/Sponsors ✔ Fosters long term sustainability ✔ ✕ Requirement approach does not necessarily impose a single unique solution Systems Engineering Approach 11

Scientist Roles Capabilities based (networks) “What can we do?” PI driven – grant structure Strong scientific creativity Deliverable ‘themes’ Discovery/experiments Open ended Requirements based (infrastructure) What must be done?” Community engagement Mature baseline science Well defined deliverables Science sustainment Manage costs/risk/scope Examples LTER + iLTER AmeriFlux – Fluxnet BASIN CZO Carbo-Europe Examples NSF Observatories DOE ARM NOAA US CRN LHC at CERN [NASA] Satellites 12

NEON site design 13

NEON Domain themes Agriculture ClimateForest systems Invasion biology Urban ecologyAquatic 14

NEON Science Sub systems (alphabet soup) FSUFundamental Sentinel UnitHuman Obs. Bioarchive FIUFundamental Instrument Unit Automated Instrumentation AOP Airborne Observation Package Aircraft Remote Sensing AQUAquatic/STREON Human Obs/automated instrumentation DPSData Products Community-vetted ensembled DPs and Models LUAPLand Use Analysis PackageSatellite Remote Sensing + 15

Fundamental Sentinel Unit Biodiversity Population Dynamics Productivity Phenology Infectious Disease Biogeochemistry Microbial Diversity and Function Ecohydrology **Sentinel Species** 16

Fundamental Sentinel Unit Microbes Mosquitoes Beetles Small Mammals Birds Fish Aquatic Invertebrates Plants Generation Time 17

18 Generalized Terrestrial Sampling Scheme

Fundamental Instrument Unit 19

Instrumented measurements Temperature Moisture Heath flux Raditation CO 2 Root growth and phenology

Fundamental Instrument Unit Physical and chemical climate forcing Ecosystem responses Stand/plot level sampling Automated instrumentation Micrometeorological scalars and fluxes Soil array Over 2000 measurements per core site at frequencies of Daily, and ~0.1 to 20 Hz Total 50 Tb y-1 21

Airborne Observing Platform (AOP)  Three airborne remote sensing payloads: –Waveform-LiDAR altimeter –Imaging spectrometer –High-resolution digital camera –GPS-Inertial measurement unit  Leased Twin Otter aircraft  Instrumentation maintenance and calibration facility  Science and flight operations 22

Airborne Observing Platform Waveform Light Detection and Ranging + High-fidelity Imaging Spectroscopy What are we after? Detailed chemical, structural and taxonomic information on ecosystems at fine spatial resolution Sampling at the scale of individual organisms (~<0.5m) over 400 sq. km around NEON sites Bridge the scales from organisms (i.e., trees or shrubs) as captured by plot sampling, to stand scale observations as measured from flux towers, to the scale of satellite based remote sensing 23

Combined AIS / STREON Reach Groundwater Well Junction Box Met Station In-Stream Sensor Mount PORTAL Stream flow direction S1 STR S2 S2 STR S1 STREO N Baskets Aquatic Reach STREON Reach Nutrient Addition System 2 nd - Nutrient Addition System if reach is longer than 200m PORTAL 24

Scaling Strategy 25

I would be remiss…..  Data Portal ( - all data open and free  Large suites of Data Products (  Education and Outreach Program  State-of-the-Art Calibration and Validation Lab  National and International Development  20 Field Labs across the US  Assignable Assets  Calibration and Validation Service  New data products  Additional Instrumentation  Mobile Instrument Platforms  Third Airborne Platform  etc 26

Ecological Observatory Information infrastructure: Consistent, continental, long-term, multi-scaled data-sets and data products that serve as a context for research and education. Physical Infrastructure: A research platform for investigator- initiated sensors, observations, and experiments providing physical infrastructure, cyberinfrastructure, human resources, and expertise, and program management and coordination. The overarching goal of NEON is to enable understanding and forecasting of climate change, land use change, and invasive species on continental-scale ecology by providing infrastructure to support research in these areas. 27

Ecological Observatory Cause and Effect Paradigm Scale in Time and Space –(from 20 Hz to 30 y, and from microbe to continent) Provide the data to enable an Ecological Forecasting The overarching goal of NEON is to enable understanding and forecasting of climate change, land use change, and invasive species on continental-scale ecology by providing infrastructure to support research in these areas. 28

Ecological Forecasting  Aligned with establishing a baseline understanding now!!  Casts the cause and effect paradigm of NEON into understanding present and future states of ecosystems: What is the most likely future state of an ecological system? Provides an applied context of ‘what-if’ given a decision made today?  Provides a conceptual framework that can be applied to all elements in managing ecosystems: theory, exp design, experiments, implementation, infrastructure, data products 29

Ecological Forecasting 30

How are ecological forecasting, experiments, and observations related? The need for observations of the starting point (now) The need for quantitative information about specific processes -- particularly non-linear and stochastic processes (temperature sensitivity, susceptibility to drought, tipping points…) Estimates of system state Information on process parameters Experiments/process studies to elucidate unknown processes and non-linear responses Observations collected systematically over time and space to challenge iterative forecasts A paradigm for ecological research? 31

32 Science Developments Data flows: −Command, Control, Configuration −Algorithm Theoretical Basis Documents −Automated QA/QC −Data product catalogs Sponsored Workshops −Phenocam Network: Envisioning the future of near-surface remote sensing −Isotope Ecology: Accelerating the integration of NEON data in isotope ecology research Notable Meetings: −American Geophysical Union −Ecological Society of America −Entomological Society of America −Biodiversity Information Working Group −Soil Science Society NEON, Inc. Update

Aligning Science Questions and Hypotheses, Requirements, Mission Statements Traceability of Measurements Algorithms/Procedures Informatics Mapping Questions to ‘what must be done’ Defines Joint Science Scope / Knowledge Gaps define interfaces among respective Infrastructures What is the algorithm or procedural process to create a data product? Provides “consistent and compatible” data Managed through intercomparisons What are their relative uncertainties? Use of Recognized Standards Traceability to Recognized Standards, or First Principles Known and managed signal:noise Managing QA/QC Uncertainty budgets Standards – Data / Metadata formats Persistent Identifiers / Open-source Discovery tools / Portals Ontologies, semantics and controlled vocabularies Interoperability Framework

Informatics-- Building Block Approach Data / Metadata formats Discipline specific Data Formats ISO (29115) compliant EML Persistent Identifiers Time series / sos Attribution / Publications Community Acceptance Data Providence Ontologies, Semantics and Controlled Vocabularies Discipline Specific e.g., BCO, OWL, PCO etc Data Policies Community acceptance Open-source Data Management Plans and accountability Archival Policy Data Sovereignty Intellectual Property Rights Individual / Institutional Discovery tools / Portals Ease of use Interoperable / Harmonized

Emergent bottom-up Networks EREN — Ecological Research as Education Network Laurie Andersonerenweb.orgerenweb.org/ FunDivEurope—Functional Significance of Forest Biodiversity in Europe (also Biodepth-Jena) Michael Scherer- Lorenzen GLEON — Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network Kathleen Weatherswww.gleon.orgwww.gleon.org/ iLTER — Long Term Ecological Network Scott Collinswww.lternet.eduwww.lternet.edu/ Biosphere Atmosphere Stable Isotope Network Todd Dawsonbasin.yolasite.com/ NPN — USA-National Phenology Network Elizabeth Wolkovichwww.usanpn.org USDA National Soil Carbon NetworkChris Swantsonwww.fluxdata.org/nsc n/SitePages/Home NTSG — Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group Bill Smithwww.ntsg.umt.eduwww.ntsg.umt.edu/ NutNet — Nutrient NetworkEric Lindwww.nutnet.orgwww.nutnet.org/ TraitNet — Trait Network (also BioMERGE) Dan Bunkertraitnet.ecoinformatic s.org ZEN — Zostera Ecological NetworkPamela Reynoldszenscience.orgzenscience.org/

NEON Focused Interactions European Union (18 member countries in ICOS) Italy – Ecosystem Thematic Center Finland – Governance and PM Germany – Calibration and Validation Norway – intercomparison European Union (COOPEUS) - Lifewatch Australia – TERN France – EU ESFRI INRA ANAEE Mexico and Canada – CarboNA + MexFlux Korea – KEON + KoFlux + AsiaFlux China – CERN

R+RA CA Abbreviated Institutional Structure – community engagement for research infrastructure NEON Inc 501©3 Board of Directors CEO STEAC National Science Foundation Project Manager Project Scientist Observatory Director MREFC CA R+RA CA COMMISSIONING TRANSITION The NEON Observatory Operations Constrained activity The NEON Project Construction Constrained activity Assignable Assets Airborne Platform + Instrumentation MDP Biol. Samples/Plots Cal/Val Science Systems designed with limited community interface Workshops Working groups Strategic Projects Director Scientific Community Other Resources NEON Inc Development Activities Open-ended activity Examples NEON Satellite Sites Interoperability New Experiments New Infrastructure International Training Activities COLLABORATIVE PROCESS

The National Ecological Observatory Network is a project sponsored by the National Science Foundation and managed under cooperative agreement by NEON Inc.