Governance Innovation for Security and Development Design Meeting Video Teleconference Fort Bragg, NC and Mountain View, CA 17 October Pacific

Agenda O Introductions O Discussion on goals O Methodologies O Working structure O Roles of working groups O Sponsor communications O Certificate updates O SSDCO O ROL O Governance O Human behavior O Conferences O ISA - March O PSOTEW January 2014 Washington DC O Funding opportunities O Minerva fellowship O Topic area discussions O Governance, Safe and secure environment, rule of law (Karen and Charles) O Sustainable economy and infrastructure, Social well-being (Marc and Maria) O Homeland integration (Paula) O Human behavior, Tech enablers (Mark and Margarita) O Specify goals for project deliverables: O reports, literature reviews, surveys, case studies, articles, manuscripts, web-based materials, tools O Identify timelines for identified projects O plenary (ies) O monthly seminars O survey O 38G analysis O Other

Introductions Fort Bragg O BG Hugh Van Roosen O COL Terry Lindon, IMSG O COL Jay Wolff O COL Rich Thewes O COL Rob Levalley O COL Mike Barger (USACAPOC) O LTC Hanhauser (USACAPOC) O LTC Scotty Lene (USACAPOC) O LTC Jon Mapley-Brittle O MAJ Mike Chagaris O MAJ Tony Vacha Mountain View O Karen Guttieri, Principal Investigator, Naval Postgraduate School O Marc Ventresca, Naval Postgraduate School O Paula Philbin, Naval Postgraduate School O Maria-Dubravka Pineda, Naval Postgraduate School O Herman Semes, Naval Postgraduate School (22nd Century Contract) O Margarita Quihuis, Stanford O Mark Nelson, Stanford O Charles Palmares, Stanford O Charlie Jenks, 351 CACOM O LTC Joel Smith, 351 CACOM O MAJ Brendan McAlary, 1st Training Brigade, USACAPOC

Goals

Function: Support Civil Military Operations (CMO) Conduct Civil Affairs Operations (CAO) Core Tasks: Population Resource Control (PRC) Foreign Humanitarian Assistance (FHA) Nation Assistance (NA) Support to Civil Administration (SCA) Civil Information Management (CIM) Civil Affairs Team 1.Civil Reconnaissance 2.Key Leader Engagement 3.Project Management CMOC 1.Key Leader Engagement 2.Project Management 3.CIM Civilian Liaison Team 1.Civil Reconnaissance 2.Key Leader Engagement 3.Civil Military Support Elements (CMSE) Functional Experts 1.Civil Reconnaissance 2.Key Leader Engagement 3.Project Management 4.Advisor CMO Staff (S/G 9) 1.Principle CMO Advisor 2.CMO Planner 3.Key Leader Engagement 4.Project Tracking Civil Affairs Planning Team (CAPT) 1.CMO Planner 2.Project Tracking Civil Affairs Functional Areas Public Health & Welfare Infrastructure Economic Stability Rule of Law Governance Public Education & Information Capabilities: Army Civil Affairs (FM ) Civil Affairs 6

Terms of Art DoctrineTask Framework / “IMSG” Governance Infrastructure Economic stability Sustainable econ development “economy and infrastructure” Public health and welfare Public education, information Social well-being “essential humanitarian services” Public orderSafe and secure environment “Civil security” Justice and reconciliation “Rule of law” Rule of law [ ] “Homeland Integration”

Statement of Work 1. Research O cross-disciplinary team …in an analytic dialogue producing academic reports, articles and monographs on military support to governance… O will consider throughout the changing environment and information communications technologies... O analysis on human behavior dynamics O technological enablers of peace and stability operations O military governance areas 2. 38G 3. Educational value

Methodologies

Certificate Updates

O SSDCO O 90 Day Program of Instruction O Phase 1: Distributed (6 weeks, reading assignments, online lectures, discussion)Distributed O Phase 2: Resident (intensive 4 week academic workload) O Phase 3: Distributed (2 weeks, completion of papers)papers O 12 graduate credits O GP3100 Global Challenges and Governance O GP3200 Security and Development O GP3300 Analytical Methods in Support of Stability Operations O Certification Status O NPS Certificate and Official Transcript O USACAPOC (A) Advanced Operations Course (AOC) certification O PKSOI/AWC and Naval War College onsite at NPS 11 Certificate Programs

Rule of Law Program Overview Concurrent courses 1. GP 3110 Legitimacy, Law and Society O Rules, role of legitimacy, social context 2. Comparative Legal Systems O Legal traditions, culture of lawfulness 3. Public Order and Accountability O Institutions to provide physical security and rebuilding/creating state legitimacy O Intensive, interdisciplinary, integrated, faculty-led environment O Connecting themes and multiple perspectives on common issues O No counterparts to other courses at NPS in terms of content 12

Human Behavior Dynamics O The Human Dimension O analytic skills, and general understanding of the problem for Military Information Support Operations (MISO) and others. Students will survey relevant social science literatures (e.g., psychology, sociology, anthropology) and military doctrine to develop a robust understanding of human behavior dynamics and their own roles, across the spectrum of conflict. O Influence O methods for addressing the challenges of information and communication in influence operations. Students will be introduced to communications theory, cultural considerations, influence methods, and media. O Measures of Effectiveness O tools for evaluating both performance and effectiveness, familiarity with ongoing efforts, and skill in both analysis and communication of research findings. 13

Conferences and Related Projects PSOTEW ISA Minerva

Sectors Research priorities and ideas

Research Ideas Transitional Regimes – Interim Governments Direction of State Formation O Top-down and bottom-up state formation Development as a Product of Political and Economic Institutions O Development through reform in governance and markets Authoritarian Regimes and Violent Non-State Actors as Community Stakeholders O Exclusive and inclusive governance processes O Participatory and deliberate democratic processes O Emphasis on authoritarian regimes (e.g. Syria and China) and VNSAs (e.g. warlords, militias, insurgencies, and terrorist organizations)

Degree of International Authority Interim Governments Revolutionary Provisional (Transition managed by counter-elite) Power-sharing (Transition is managed by ancient regime and opposition) International (Transition is managed by international actors) Incumbent Caretaker (Transition is managed by elites of the ancient regime) Administrative Authority (Domestic organs have full legislative authority, international body has reserve power and is the main administrative authority) Executive Authority (International body has full executive authority; legislative and executive authority is shared with domestic powers) Supervisory Authority (International transitional authority has full legislative/ executive & administrative authority)

Five Ecologies of Transitional Politics Hostile factors Reconciled Factions FewManyFewMany Coherent Factors 3rd Ecology: Angola Bosnia Cambodia Cypress Georgia W. Sahara 1st Ecology El Salvador Namibia Tajikistan Incoherent Factors 4th Ecology Brecho (Bosnia) E. Slavonia (Croatia) Rwanda 5th Ecology Bosnia II Congo Dem Rep Congo Liberia Sierra Leone Somalia 2nd Ecology East Timor Guatemala Haiti Mozambique Michael Doyle - War Making and Peace Making: The United Nations’ Post-Cold War Record

Study Ideas Behavioral Analysis in Counterinsurgency O Behavioral analysis of authoritarian regimes and violent non-state actors (e.g. warlords, militias, insurgencies, and terrorist orgs) vis-à-vis COIN O Hypothesis: predicts a significant and positive relationship between a modified model of community-driven development and the reduction in conflict and promotion in development O Methodology: test various models of diplomacy, governance, and rule of law; controlled field experiments and computer simulation

22 USIP and PKSOI Guiding Principles for Stabilization and Reconstruction 2010 QDR: Civil Affairs “the vanguard” of Dept. of Defense support to Rule of Law

Study Ideas Compensation Payments Text: Rule of Law Rule of Law Through Formal and Informal Judicial Institutions O Merits and challenges of rule of law through formal judicial institutions, informal and customary laws, and religious codes O Second and third order effects with respect to human rights and conflict resolution Constitutional Design in Post-Conflict States O Merits and challenges of “accommodation” and “integration” as approaches in constitutional design O Second and third order effects on security and development

Infrastructure & economic development (Pineda & Ventresca) – draft p1 Research overview: ‘Infrastructure’ is a multi-disciplinary field with relevant focus on planning, policy, socio-technical systems, innovation and risk. The links with economic development are several: O Large-scale systems project management and oversight, due diligence for financial, human capitals O Alignment of large projects to build capacity in local firms/SMEs and supply chains/value chains O Management of innovation and entrepreneurial activity in support of broader economic and societal/well-being goals O Risk management across the range of potential risks – physical, material, cyber, governance/ethics

Infrastructure & economic development, p 2 Research programme for GISD / CA community O Produce ‘translation research’ matrix to guide our research and engagement with the CA community O Develop integrative literature review that digests ‘infrastructure’ conceptions and theory, compare/contrast with relevance for policy and CA practice O Define academic research on specific (infrastructure) topic to produce working paper -> journal article, edited workshop proceedings, conference presentations and/or panel. Sample research topics: ‘Alternative energy generation and delivery’; Community-based models of water & sanitation capacity’; ‘System building’ across specific infrastructure domains, e.g., Lessons from off-grid electricity in Africa for community-building. O Convene ‘Think Tanks’ with selected sets of CA community and partners to hear views, experiences and identify practice needs O Advise on specific, relevant CA expertise needed, to complement or extend existing field competencies

Project Proposal: Analyses Social Capital and Dynamic Stability A New Era for Humanitarian Assistance Institutional Drivers of Human Development O Analysis of political institutional drivers—namely, capacity, autonomy, and incentive—and their potential relationship with human development (e.g. income, education, and health) O Hypothesis: predicts drivers will have a significant and positive relationship with human development; individually, the drivers will no relationship O Methodology: cross-provincial and regression analysis, Philippines

Homeland Integration Convenor: Paula Philbin Questions for Sponsor: O What purpose(s) to add focus on homeland integration? O Will CA functional areas remain the same once ISMG is up and running? O How much is your intent to support Homeland Defense Doctrine 3-27 or to explore “the problem you don’t yet know about?” Potential Areas of study: O Posse Comitatus: Origins, variant claims, and a new reading for policy O Military response in complex catastrophes: Beyond Katrina O Strategic communication: Managing crisis and political challenge

Study Ideas Persuasive Technology O Develop framework to utilize “persuasive technologies” to engage key leaders and social movements to facilitate diplomatic relations in non-permissive environments O Project will review literature and test engagement effectiveness in local cities and possibly OEF operations

Study Ideas Civil Information Management O Develop framework for geo-spatial analysis which will quantitatively assess and forecast the effectiveness of Support to Civil Administration in conflict mitigation and prevention O Application of Bayesian statistics to a previously developed equation on the size and frequency of attacks in conflict O Project will make recommendations to hardware and software to improve visualization and functionality O Potential Partners: Quid and Palantir

Timelines Plenary (ies) Monthly seminars Survey 38G analysis

Dr. Karen Guttieri Naval Postgraduate School - Global Public Policy Academic Group Guttieri: Monterey Custom House Commodore Sloat was the first of six U.S. military governors in California

Backup Slides

Factors Affecting the Decision to Renew Major Fighting 35

Factors Relating to the Prospects for Sustained Peace 36

Factors Relating to the Prospects for Sustained Peace (contd.) 37

Other Factors Related to Peace 38