The statistical implications of proposed devolution of further powers – the “Balkanisation” of the UK statistics system? James Gillan – NISRA GSS Methodology Symposium 1 st July 2015

Issues 1. How comparable are intra-UK official statistics? 2. What does further devolution look like from here? 3. What is the user need? 3. What would an optimal response look like? 4. The response to date 5. Next Steps

Context Code of Practice – Principle 4, practice 6 – Promote comparability within the UK – document deviations Public Administration Select Committee (Sep 13) – Statistics are not always available at the geographies required – How is strategy for sub national statistics set? UK Statistics Authority – Sometimes non-comparability is inevitable and will always be – Co-operation is the only way to achieve a broader cohesion Statistical implications of further devolution

Multi track, multi speed Devolution Smith Commission (excerpts) – Benefits (e.g. Carer’s, Attendance Allowances, DLA, Winter Fuel, Housing Benefits...) – Power to set income tax rates and bands – Receive first 10 pp of VAT raised in Scotland – Air Passenger Duty – Increased borrowing powers

Multi track, multi speed Devolution St David’s Day Agreement (Feb 2015) (excerpts) – A Blueprint that builds on Wales Act 2014 – Silk II powers for energy, transport and the environment – Considers Non Fiscal powers identified in Smith – Move to a reserved model of Devolution – Potential devolution of income tax (referendum) – Consideration of Air Passenger Duty

Multi track, multi speed Devolution Stormont House Agreement (Dec 2014) (excerpts) – NI Rate of Corporation Tax (April 2017?) – Benefit flexibilities and top-ups to be agreed – UK consideration of Aggregates Levy, Stamp Duty Land Tax and Landfill Tax. – Increased borrowing powers – Use of Capital for some repayments

How Comparable are UK Official Statistics ? UK Statistics Authority – Monitoring Reports – Monitoring Report – Official Statistics in the Context of the Referendum on Scottish Independence (Oct 2013) – The Geography of Economic Statistics – (June 2014) Recent ONS initiatives – the Comparability of UK Official Statistics - July 2013 – Inter Administration Working Agreement (Oct 2013) – Compendium of UK statistics (Data Catalogues)- June 2014 – Regional and Country profiles – Statistics for Devolution (July 2015)

Task and Finish Group -Comparability Identify key indicators in a particular statistics theme and the required comparisons based on user needs. Decompose indicators into constituent parts Assess compliance against classification systems, reference to international standards (GSBPM) or Quality Management Harmonisation Tool; Cross Country Producers (and Expert Users) review and arrive at a summary “Comparability Rating” Include Rating and links to meta data in Publications

6.4 Apply disclosure control 5.1 Integrate data 5.2 Classify & code Blah blah 5.3 Review, Validate & edit Blah blah 5.4 Impute Blah blah 5.5 Derive new variables & statistical units 5.6 Calculate weights 2.3 Design data collection methodology 2.4 Design frame & sample methodology 2.2 Design variable descriptions 1.2 Consult & confirm needs 1.4 Identify concepts 5.7 Calculate aggregates 2.5 Design statistical processing methodology 1.3 Establish Output Objective 2.1 Design Outputs 3.1 Build Data Collection Instrument 4.1 Select Sample 6.5 Finalise Outputs

Are these headline statistics Is there evidence of need for cross nation comparability Is comparability an issue Yes No Further Action No

Are these headline statistics Is there evidence of need for cross nation comparability Is comparability an issue How comparable are these statistics across nations ? Current Situation Fully Partially Not Provide access to comparable statistics in your publication Good Practice Provide links to other statistics in your publication and a statement of extent of comparability Provide an explanation of why the statistics are not comparable Yes No Further Action No

Are these headline statistics Is there evidence of need for cross nation comparability Is comparability an issue How comparable are these statistics across nations ? Current Situation Fully Partially Not Provide access to comparable statistics in your publication Good Practice Provide links to other statistics in your publication and a statement of extent of comparability Provide an explanation of why the statistics are not comparable Yes Future Improvement Do users across the UK prioritise enhanced comparability above other improvements No Further Action Include better comparability in action plan NoYes No Further Action No

Summary Statemen t Comparabilit y Rating Quality Matrix Classification systems Comparability of underlying variables and sources

4 Nations Comparability Scale Data published on 17 th June 2015 by Economic and Labour Market Statistics branch which is part of NISRA. Figures are collected, produced and available off-the-shelf for all 4 nations separately. All from one producer. Figures that are produced by the same body but not for all four nations – e.g. only produced for the UK, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland but not England Figures that are published by two or more statistics producers using common data, methods and standards. Figures which are produced from separate sources of data, but using the same methods and standards Figures which are produced from separate sources of data. Methods and standards are broadly comparable, although there are clear differences in systems Figures which require conversion into a common currency to enable comparison FULLY COMPARABLE A* A B C E D PARTIALLY COMPARABLE

4 Nations Comparability Scale Data published on 17 th June 2015 by Economic and Labour Market Statistics branch which is part of NISRA. Figures which are produced across the UK in ways that are sufficiently different to extent that they are not comparable. The headline statistic is only produced in one nation. However, secondary analysis of a single source of data mean it could be replicated exactly by other nations from the micro-data The headline statistic is only produced in one nation. However, figures are collected in similar ways across the UK and comparable figures could be produced by the different nations The headline statistic is only produced in one nation. System or questions are completely different, or no equivalent collection. New primary research would be needed I H G F NOT COMPARABLE

Summary Comparability Statement for Quarterly GDP publication Draft Statement for inclusion in ONS Preliminary estimate of Quarterly GDP Official statistics relating to Quarterly GDP in this publication are considered by ONS as “Fully Comparable at Level B” of the “UK Comparability Scale” Report-Final.pdf with those statistics produced by the Scottish Government:- Report-Final.pdf ONS’s Quarterly GDP statistics are considered as “Partially Comparable at Level D” with the Composite Economic Index produced by NISRA 3_ pdf. 3_ pdf. The ONS quarterly GDP statistics are considered “Not Comparable at level I” relative to Wales as there is no equivalent.

Best Practice Address "comparability resistant“ outputs e.g. – UK Comparability of Children’s Social Services Statistics (IAD May 2014) – UK indices of multiple deprivation - a way to make comparisons across UK constituent countries easier (Cambridge University Feb 2012) Embedding comparability assessments across ONS / GSS / NISRA outputs

Next Steps – Principles (excerpts) ONS will continue to have legal responsibilities to produce UK and sub-national statistics under UK and EU law. All countries will work together to ensure these obligations can be met..... UK and devolved administrations public bodies will share data for statistical purposes where a legal gateway exists. Where a legal gateway does not exist, and subject to there being a demonstrated user need, statistical producers should work with the UK Statistics Authority with the aim to create one.

Next Steps – Principles (excerpts) Statistical producers will work together to ensure that devolution of powers does not reduce the quality and timeliness of official statistics. Where additional powers have been devolved to any one UK country, and new official statistics become available in relation to those powers, producers are encouraged to consider whether they should produce equivalent statistics, to a comparable level of quality.... This would be subject to there being a demonstrated user need, to financial constraints and being mindful of any consequent administrative burden.

Next Steps – Tasks (excerpts) Constitutional Classification systems Taxes Benefits Living Standards Fiscal Frameworks Administrative oversight

Summary UK obligations and Devolved needs can both be met, but requires active co-ordination under IAC The “Comparability Rating” approach to needs to be mainstreamed across publications (Quality Framework) Joint working groups will target immediate issues; Across UK co-ordination needs to be embedded at the working level to counterbalance centrifugal forces! Each nation’s ongoing statistical devolution experience is likely to be relevant to the others’, including England.

Discussion