Northwest Power and Conservation Council Revised Carbon Dioxide Methodology Regional Technical Forum April 18, 2004

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 2 History of RTF Estimates Original Original –Based on $15/ton CO2 & Gas-fired CCCT –Result: 6 mills/kWh adder to avoided cost Then 5 th Plan Placeholder Then 5 th Plan Placeholder –Value of CO2 $0 to $30/ton & Gas CCCT –Expected value ~$3/ton CO2 –Result: 1.2 mills per kWh adder

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 3 Proposed Revision Both Amount & Value of CO2 avoided depends on when it is avoided Both Amount & Value of CO2 avoided depends on when it is avoided Incorporate time-based value same as for electricity Incorporate time-based value same as for electricity –Shape of Savings (kWh) –Physical production (pounds per kWh) –Value of CO2 avoided ($/ton) Expected value of CO2 from 5 th Plan Expected value of CO2 from 5 th Plan

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 4 Typical “On-Peak” Savings Profiles

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 5 Typical “Off-Peak” Savings Profiles

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 6 Expected Value of CO2 From 5 th Power Plan

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 7 Physical CO2 Avoided From Latest Aurora™ Modeling

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 8 Timing-Based Value CO2 Shapeof Savings (kWh) Shape of Savings (kWh) Value of CO2 Avoided ($/ton) Value of CO2 Avoided * = $ * Physical CO2 Avoided (lbs/kWh)

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 9 Results for Selected Savings Shapes and 20-Year Measure Life

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 10 Change from Placeholder

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 11 How Much CO2 Is This? Regional CO2 Production in 2025 –About 50 million tons/year

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 12 End

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 13 Average Carbon Cost Comparison

Northwest Power and Conservation Council slide 14 Change from Placeholder If $15/ton