Delta Outflows and Related Stressors Denise Reed The Water Institute of the Gulf.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Benthic Assessments One benthic ecologists concerns and suggestions Fred Nichols USGS, retired.
Advertisements

Interior Columbia Basin TRT Draft Viability Criteria June, 2005 ESU & Population Levels.
3-Year Implementation Schedule. What is the 3-Year Implementation Schedule? A list of prioritized projects for implementers with a time frame to complete.
OMSAP Public Meeting September 1999 The Utility of the Bays Eutrophication Model in the Harbor Outfall Monitoring Program James Fitzpatrick HydroQual,
Statistical Issues in Research Planning and Evaluation
The Fundamentals of Conservation Design Image by Rex Johnson.
The current status of fisheries stock assessment Mark Maunder Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) Center for the Advancement of Population.
Stepping Forward Population Objectives Partners in Flight Conservation Design Workshop April 2006 and Delivering Conservation.
Statistics Micro Mini Threats to Your Experiment!
Monitoring and Pollutant Load Estimation. Load = the mass or weight of pollutant that passes a cross-section of the river in a specific amount of time.
Chapter 7 Correlational Research Gay, Mills, and Airasian
Interaction of Invasive Plants with Environment and Other Biota Eric Dibble Bill James Susan Wilde.
Evaluating Physical Activity Intervention Programs Thomas Schmid, PhD Physical Activity and Health Branch CDC Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Standards and Guidelines for Quality Assurance in the European
RESEARCH DESIGN.
Computer modelling ecosystem processes and change Lesson 8 Presentation 1.
Determining Sample Size
Health promotion and health education programs. Assumptions of Health Promotion Relationship between Health education& Promotion Definition of Program.
Chapter 3 An Overview of Quantitative Research
Ecological processes in a changing climate: winners and losers Third US GLOBEC Pan Regional Workshop 20 February 2009 J. Runge, presenter.
WP4: Models to predict & test recovery strategies Cefas: Laurence Kell & John Pinnegar Univ. Aberdeen: Tara Marshall & Bruce McAdam.
Tuesday 11:00 – 1:50 Thursday 11:00 – 1:50 Instructor: Nancy Wheat Ecology Bio 47 Spring 2015.
Science, consensus, and monitoring strategies : the art of revising a long-term benthic monitoring program Heather Peterson California Department of Water.
MANAGEMENT AND ANALYSIS OF WILDLIFE BIOLOGY DATA Bret A. Collier 1 and T. Wayne Schwertner 2 1 Institute of Renewable Natural Resources, Texas A&M University,
Periodic Review of the 1995 Water Quality Control Plan for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta Estuary Comments of The Bay Institute on.
Getting Ready for the Future Woody Turner Earth Science Division NASA Headquarters May 7, 2014 Biodiversity and Ecological Forecasting Team Meeting Sheraton.
Texas Bay and Estuary Study Program Cindy Loeffler Flows for the Future October 31, 2005.
Roadmap for Soil Community Metagenomics of DOE’s FACE & OTC Sites
Recommendations for Determining Regional Instream Flow Criteria for Priority Tributaries to the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta A Report to the California.
Monitoring Principles Stella Swanson, Ph.D.. Principle #1: Know Why We Are Monitoring Four basic reasons to monitor:  Compliance Monitoring: to demonstrate.
PPA 502 – Program Evaluation Lecture 2c – Process Evaluation.
Potomac Flow-by Stated Management Objectives (1) estimate the amount and quality of biotic habitat available at different flow levels, particularly as.
Benthic Community Assessment Tool Development Ananda Ranasinghe (Ana) Southern California Coastal Water Research Project (SCCWRP) Sediment.
Louis Gross, Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and Mathematics, University of Tennessee Thoughts on Raccoon Rabies Models.
Assessing Linkages between Nearshore Habitat and Estuarine Fish Communities in the Chesapeake Bay Donna Marie Bilkovic*, Carl H. Hershner, Kirk J. Havens,
STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY AND TECHNIQUES.
Criterion 1: Conservation of Biological Diversity Indicator Refinement: What is the state of Indicator Science? 1. Overview of the Criterion 2. Review.
Evaluating Impacts of MSP Grants Hilary Rhodes, PhD Ellen Bobronnikov February 22, 2010 Common Issues and Recommendations.
X2 reflects many ecosystem factors X2 Physical Habitat changes Water Quality Contaminant effects Larval dispersal Adult migration and spawning.
The management of small pelagics. Comprise the 1/3 of the total world landings Comprise more than 50% of the total Mediterranean landings, while Two species,
Digital Map from Dr. William Bowen California State University Northridge Sacramento- San Joaquin Delta San Joaquin River Sacramento River Suisun Bay San.
January 27, 2011 Examples of Recovery Evaluation Objectives in the Western U.S. Delta Stewardship Council Presentation by the Independent Consultant.
“The minimum flow for a given watercourse shall be the limit at which further withdrawals would be significantly harmful to the water resources or ecology.
January 27, 2011 Summary Background on Delta Flow and Habitat Relationships Delta Stewardship Council Presentation by the Independent Consultant.
1 EMS Fundamentals An Introduction to the EMS Process Roadmap AASHTO EMS Workshop.
Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level.
Can you teach a long-term benthic monitoring program new tricks? Marc Vayssières, Karen Gehrts and Cindy Messer - CA Dept. of Water Resources Assessment.
1. Digital Map from Dr. William Bowen California State University Northridge Sacramento- San Joaquin Delta San Joaquin River Sacramento River Suisun Bay.
Performance Improvement Project Validation Process Outcome Focused Scoring Methodology and Critical Analysis Presenter: Christi Melendez, RN, CPHQ Associate.
SQO 4/7/05 INCORPORATING MULTIPLE LINES OF EVIDENCE INTO SEDIMENT QUALITY OBJECTIVES Stephen B. Weisberg Southern California Coastal Water Research Project.
Adaptive Integrated Framework (AIF): a new methodology for managing impacts of multiple stressors in coastal ecosystems A bit more on AIF, project components.
Results from the Downscaling Needs Assessment Survey April 2011 Sarah Trainor Courtesy of Tony Weyiouanna Sr. & Dave Atkinson.
California Sediment Quality Advisory Committee Meeting SWRCB Program to Develop Sediment Quality Objectives for Enclosed Bays and Estuaries of California.
1 Climate Change and Implications for Management of North Sea Cod (Gadus morhua) L.T. Kell, G.M. Pilling and C.M. O’Brien CEFAS, Lowestoft.
U.S Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Designing an Integrated Monitoring Program for Coniferous Forests: beyond the forest and the trees.
Using Regional Models to Assess the Relative Effects of Stressors Lester L. Yuan National Center for Environmental Assessment U.S. Environmental Protection.
Session 2: Developing a Comprehensive M&E Work Plan.
Single Season Study Design. 2 Points for consideration Don’t forget; why, what and how. A well designed study will:  highlight gaps in current knowledge.
Biological structure of Fisheries Resources In Space And Time.
New Ecological Science Advice for Ecosystem Protection The EPA Science Advisory Board (SAB) Staff Office supports three external scientific advisory committees.
Stages of Research and Development
Performance Improvement Project Validation Process Outcome Focused Scoring Methodology and Critical Analysis Presenter: Christi Melendez, RN, CPHQ Associate.
Performance Improvement Project Validation Process Outcome Focused Scoring Methodology and Critical Analysis Presenter: Christi Melendez, RN, CPHQ Associate.
Delivering Conservation
Presenter: Kate Bell, MA PIP Reviewer
IBI’s: An Introduction
Research outline for CPUE data used in WCPO stock assessments
Guidance on establishing nutrient concentrations to support good ecological status Introduction and overview Martyn Kelly.
Delta Interior Inflows and Related Stressors
Presentation transcript:

Delta Outflows and Related Stressors Denise Reed The Water Institute of the Gulf

Members Denise Reed The Water Institute of the Gulf Panel Chair Tim Hollibaugh University of Georgia Josh Korman University of British Columbia/Ecometric Consulting Paul Montagna Texas A&M University, CC Ernst Peebles University of South Florida Editor-in-Chief Kenneth Rose Louisiana State University Pete Smith US Geological Survey (retired)

Process Late 2013 – Background and key material provided – Conference call, reading assignments February 10-11, 2014 – workshop Panel discussion of issues and conclusions Writing assignments Editor-in-Chief Peebles collated and edited Circulated among members multiple times

Workshop Presentations – Science program – Public water agencies – Dischargers – In-Delta water users – Scientists/managers Extensive Q&A and discussion

Charge Question 1 What are the key studies and synthesis reports that the State Water Board should rely on in making their decisions on Delta outflow requirements? Response embedded within report including commentary on several studies

Measuring X2 Several approaches to measurement Some confusion regarding equations Importance of the stratification assumption Errors can be high, especially during periods of variability in outflow or when X2 is at ‘extremes’

Key Findings and Observations In general, there should be no expectation that the species responses to X2 indicated by the existing regressions, which involve correlations with multi-year collections of seasonal field sampling across multiple stations, would be manifest at the fine time scales that salinity distributions can now be estimated within the estuary.

Key Findings and Observations Give careful consideration to the time and space scales of responses to outflow management. If a reasonable biological rationale for fine-scale management of X2 can be clearly expressed and agreed upon, then it may be implemented in an adaptive management experiment where field data regarding both the physical character of the system and the biological response are also collected to test the rationale. Until this has been accomplished, it is important to remember that the existing X2-abundance relationships do not provide the rationale for fine-scale management of X2.

Charge Question 2 The existing Delta outflow objectives are based largely on documented relationships between a suite of estuarine organisms and the 2 ppt isohaline (X2). – Should these flow relationships still be used as the basis for protecting estuarine fish, estuarine fish habitat, and other important ecosystem attributes? – Are there other methods or indicators available to serve as the basis for protecting estuarine fish, estuarine fish habitat, and other important ecosystem attributes? If so, what are they and how could they be applied?

Key Findings and Observations Use a suite of indicators in setting Delta outflow objectives, including X2, to ensure ecosystem (beyond individual species) health and to better understand and anticipate how outflow changes will affect not only target species but also other aspects of the ecosystem.

Key Findings and Observations Clarify interpretation of X2 relationships by: – Standardize X2 abundance relationships and include estimates of uncertainty – Use linear scales (in addition to log or other transformations) – Consistently use X2 or outflow

Key Findings and Observations Consider additional factors in the development of indicators, e.g.: changes in X2 between seasons and water-year types, habitat suitability, spatial and temporal dynamics of the area and volume of habitat, water age, benthos community structure and function, patterns of gross energy flows in the system, and flowpath-related metrics such as the split between Sacramento and San Joaquin flows. Important for species-specific indices to include vital rates in addition to indices for standing stock abundance.

Charge Question 3 What scales (magnitude and duration) of outflow change are needed to produce measurable changes in native species population viability and/or ecosystem function over what time frame? Are there thresholds for achieving specific responses? How could adaptive management experiments be conducted on these scales to inform manipulation of Delta outflow to better protect estuarine fish, estuarine fish habitat, and other important ecosystem attributes?

Key Findings and Observations It seems unlikely that the predicted increase in the abundance index under any proposed regime would result in a substantive improvement in abundance of Delta Smelt in the short-term due to stock size limitations. Little evidence that the relatively modest changes in fall Delta outflows being proposed are going to result in substantive increases in abundance of key pelagic fish species based on their X2-abundance relationships

Key Findings and Observations Substantive increases in Longfin Smelt abundance index may be realized under the proposed 75% winter-spring unimpaired flow standard. Even in that case, population changes may be very difficult to detect given the variance of the regression, potentially high observation error in the sampling programs, and the infrequent implementation of high flows, even under the unimpaired flow strategy.

Key Findings and Observations The data are extensive but there are key limitations Models are useful but complexity can surpass the information available Panel encourages continued, but thoughtful, use of multistage life-cycle modeling in the analysis of Bay-Delta data Critical that quantitative analyses communicate uncertainty in recommended flow criteria to decision makers

Key Findings and Observations Decision makers are hesitant to adopt costly policies in the absence of relatively convincing model predictions that indicate they will achieve the desired objectives. However, it is very difficult to improve model predictions without implementing these policies in the first place. Thus, the rate of learning about the efficacy of alternate flow policies in the Delta will likely be very slow Explicit AM plans and realistic experimental designs should be a fundamental part of setting outflow objectives

Charge Question 4 How are other factors that affect estuarine fish, estuarine fish habitat, and other ecosystem attributes likely to interact with Delta outflow requirements? – Are there tools or methods available that could help the State Water Board to better assess the interactions between flow and other factors that affect the estuarine fish, estuarine fish habitat, and other important ecosystem attributes? – Can we reasonably expect that addressing other stressors without addressing flow will lead to specific improvements in the status of estuarine fish, estuarine fish habitat, and other important ecosystem attributes? – Conversely, can we reasonably expect that addressing flow without addressing other stressors will lead to specific improvements in the status of estuarine fish, estuarine fish habitat, and other important ecosystem attributes?

Key Findings and Observations A number of important ecological factors “co- vary” with outflow and X2 and are more proximal influences on organism distribution, condition, and abundance The distribution, condition, and abundance of some estuarine organisms are statistically associated with outflow and X2 because these two indicators are tied to underlying physical and ecological processes that more directly affect the estuarine organisms

Key Findings and Observations Ecosystem change in the San Francisco Bay estuary has been continuous on a decadal scale. This slow continual change has been punctuated by events such as the sudden increase in Potamocorbula clam biomass and the decline in chlorophyll and pelagic organisms that followed. While such punctuating events are dramatic, it should be kept in mind that continuous ecosystem change had been taking place at all trophic levels before such conspicuous events occurred

Key Findings and Observations Ammonium concentrations greater than some threshold inhibit the uptake of nitrate by phytoplankton. Thus high ammonium concentrations and growth on ammonium will always correlate with low phytoplankton biomass, while growth on nitrate will always correlate with high biomass accumulation, i.e., blooms. If phytoplankton growth is truncated for reasons other than nitrogen limitation (e.g., light, grazing) prior to reaching “bloom” conditions, then no nitrate will be consumed and some ammonium will remain This does not necessarily provide evidence that ammonium had inhibited bloom formation

Key Findings and Observations Ammonium inhibition of nitrate uptake has been interpreted as ammonium inhibition of phytoplankton growth. A critical question that has not been adequately addressed is whether or not phytoplankton grow “better” (faster, more efficiently) on nitrate than on ammonium Is the growth rate of phytoplankton lower on ammonium or nitrate at the concentrations typically encountered in San Francisco Bay? Blooms in LSZ maybe due to advection of phytoplankton from Delta

Key Findings and Observations Build on improved hydrodynamic models toward a ‘Delta ecosystem model’ Increased assessment of fish ‘condition’ including routine sampling Identify dominant biomass pathways that support fish at different life history stages

Charge Question 5 How should Delta outflow be measured and managed to better reflect the flows necessary to protect estuarine fish, estuarine fish habitat, and other important ecosystem attributes? – To what extent does managing winter-spring outflow by X2 reflect the flows necessary to protect estuarine fish? Are there other approaches to managing winter-spring outflow that could improve our ability to protect estuarine fish, estuarine fish habitat, and other important ecosystem attributes? – How should summer-fall outflow be measured and managed to better reflect the flows necessary to protect estuarine fish, estuarine fish habitat, and other important ecosystem attributes? Are there other approaches to managing summer- fall outflow that could improve our ability to protect estuarine fish, estuarine fish habitat, and other important ecosystem attributes?

Key Findings and Observations There is solid evidence that high outflows during various combinations of winter-spring months benefit a variety of species Summer-fall outflow objectives should be developed with an AM approach Managing outflows, whether directly or via X2, can provide a coarse level of protection to estuarine fish and ecosystem health

Key Findings and Observations Use of outflow objectives on a monthly to seasonal basis does not capture all of the desired dynamics that ensure protection of species and ecosystem health

Concluding Remarks Two decades have passed since the Schubel report was published; using X2 as the sole indicator (at least during spring) has not resulted in the intended protective effect The use of X2 as a management tool should be continued, at least in the near term, but there should also be a concerted effort to explore and document the utility of viable alternatives

Concluding Remarks Inferences based on correlation analyses have been the main tool applied to understanding the relationships between resources and processes These are limited because they do not inherently show cause and effect. This is especially true in a system where so many changes have occurred, and responses to change have covaried over the same, relatively short period