The Faults in our Stars Goolam Ballim. The outlook for the global and African economies.

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Presentation transcript:

The Faults in our Stars Goolam Ballim

The outlook for the global and African economies

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 3 / Index: 1995 = 100 Sources: IMF, SBR Untangling structural and cyclical patterns Central & Eastern Europe LATAM & the Caribbean Developing Asia World Real GDP index SSA

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 4 / GDP growth: index, 1995 = 100 Broad-based gains; “reformers” most prosperous S6 - Bfs, Eth, Moz, Rwa, Tnz, Uga Select 6 Oil exporters Low income SSA Middle income Fragile countries

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 5 / Sudan Angola Ghana Kenya Zambia Ethiopia Uganda Tanzania 4.5 Nigeria (7.9m) S.Sudan, 2030 Ethiopia, 2030 Tanzania, 2030 Uganda, 2030 Mozambique, 2030 Zambia, 2030 Kenya, 2030 Angola, 2030 Sudan, 2030 Ghana, 2030 Nigeria, 2030 (20.4m) Total middle-class households (including lower-middle class, mn (2014, 2030) Middle-class households (including lower-middle class) as a share of total HHs (2014, 2030), % Middle-income gains by 2030

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 6 / Global In China’s grip

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 7 / Earlier Chinese growth was robust, buoyed by credit…

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 8 / … now, a structural slowdown has been unmasked…

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 9 /... and China is a large global risk

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 10 / EM growth is highly correlated to China

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 11 / Like most EMs, key African economies are tied to China…

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 12 / … with commodity-centric nations most vulnerable… Guinea 26% 86% Botswana 27% 92% Zambia 13% 73% Rep of Congo 74% 76% Cameroon 24% 51% Nigeria 14.4% 97% Gabon 66% 84% Namibia 27% 39% Angola 56% 97% Cote d’Ivoire 20% 15% LEGEND Mining (% of GDP) Fuel, Minerals & Metals (% of Exports) Ghana 17% 46% (South) Sudan 60% 78% Hydro carbon exporters Non-oil resources

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 13 / … as already evinced by floundering exports…

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 14 /... and across product types…

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 15 / … with oil economies most exposed…

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 16 / … resulting in mixed GDP growth prognosis 3-year forecast average

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 17 / Slowing international trade

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 18 / … resulting in a structural world trade slowdown

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 19 / South Africa: waiting to exhale

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 20 / SA stands on rating precipice… S&P Moody’s Fitch B+ BB- BB BB+ BBB- BBB BBB+ A- A A+ B B1 Ba3 Ba2 Ba1 Baa3 Baa2 Baa1 A3 A2 A1 B2 Non-investment grade

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 21 / … with market pricing signaling concern ZAR risk premium Credit risk premium Risk free rate

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 22 / Poor GDP growth blights SA’s status…

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 23 / … but, corporate SA outperforms…

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 24 / … VAT is resilient…

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 25 / … and personal income tax is buoyant …

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 26 / Summary

STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 27 / Summary Global: China and world trade subsidence Rest of Africa: reformers will be resilient South Africa: private sector is the nation’s scaffolding

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STANDARD BANK GROUP STRATEGY / PAGE 29 / End of commodities super-cycle… Commodities (Energy, maize, meat, copper) Low-end durables (Stove, cars) High-end durables (Luxury cars, satellite TV) Services (Tourism, insurance, advertising) EM