2030 Transit-Oriented Development Scenario: Travel Model Results

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Presentation transcript:

2030 Transit-Oriented Development Scenario: Travel Model Results Presentation to the TPB Citizen Advisory Committee April 14, 2005 Regional Mobility and Accessibility Study Don McAuslan for Mark Moran Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments I:\rmasTravModRuns\PresAndDocs TodScenTravMod2005-04-14.ppt

TOD Scenario: What is it? Land use: TOD land use Places more of the region’s future household and job growth around current and planned Metrorail stations, commuter rail stations or other transit centers Derived from Round 6.4 land activity forecasts Transportation network: TOD network 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

TOD land use: Households Assumes a shift of 125,000 households (35% of the forecast 2010 to 2030 growth, but only 5.2% of the total 2030 HHs) 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Presentation to the TPB CAC TOD land use: Jobs Assumes a shift of 150,000 jobs (19% of the forecast 2010 to 2030 growth, but only 3.6% of the total 2030 employment) 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Transportation network: Fixed guideway improvements Heavy rail (Metrorail, commuter rail) Light rail (LRT) Bus rapid transit (BRT) Transitway (indicates BRT or LRT) 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Transportation network: 2005 I:\rmasTravModRuns\PresAndDocs\ 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Transportation network: 2030 CLRP I:\rmasTravModRuns\PresAndDocs\ 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Transportation network: 2030 CLRP+ CLRP+ assumes no capital improvements, only enhancements to transit service Most significant service enhancement: the lifting of the 2005 transit constraint through the DC core CLRP+ is the baseline network I:\rmasTravModRuns\PresAndDocs\ 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Transportation network: TOD, Map 1 of 2 I:\rmasTravModRuns\PresAndDocs\ 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Transportation network: TOD, Map 2 of 2 I:\rmasTravModRuns\PresAndDocs\ 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Map legend: Fixed guideway extensions in TOD network 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

2030 CLRP+ vs TOD: Fixed guideway miles Fixed guideway miles have increased from 412 to 691 miles (67%), but most of the increase is in the transitway category, which includes BRT/LRT lines that may operate in mixed traffic, separate right-of-way, or a combination of the two. Metrorail miles increase by 23% and commuter rail miles by 12%. Source: rail_link_miles2.xls, staprotp.rpt 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Presentation to the TPB CAC Transit Stations: How many and where? Transit Stations CLRP+ TOD Change Total Number of Stations 166 431 265 Number of Transit Stations Within a Regional Activity Cluster 109 156 Number of Transit Stations Outside a Regional Activity Cluster 57 Regional Activity Clusters CLRP+ TOD Change Total Number of Regional Activity Clusters 24 --- Number of Regional Activity Clusters With One or More Transit Stations 17 22 5 Number of Regional Activity Clusters Without a Transit Station 7 2 -5 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Presentation to the TPB CAC TOD model results Compared to the 2030 CLRP+, the 2030 TOD scenario results in 109,000 more transit trips per day (7.9% increase) 58,000 due to TOD network 51,000 due to TOD land use Regional transit mode share goes from 5.7% to 6.3% (a small increase, but the largest increase of all the scenarios tested to date) Home-based work mode share goes from 20.5% to 22.1% (again, the highest of any of the scenarios tested to date) 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Presentation to the TPB CAC TOD model results, 2 VMT drops by about 1% (from 149.8 million to 148.3 million vehicle miles of travel) HBW walk and bike trips increased 6.4%, from 253,000 to 270,000 Carpool commuters: There is a drop of 13,000 daily trips (2.0%) AM congestion: the number of AM lane miles with a volume-to-capacity ratio > 1.0 drops by 4.6% (from 2,560 to 2,440 miles) 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Presentation to the TPB CAC Households Within ½-Mile of a Transit Station: 2030 CLRP+, Transit Oriented Development, Higher Household Growth Total Households, CLRP+ and TOD: 2.4 Million Total Households, Higher Household Scenario: 2.6 Million 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Presentation to the TPB CAC Employment Within ½-Mile of a Transit Station: 2030 CLRP+, Transit Oriented Development, & Higher Household Growth Total Employment in 2030: 4.2 Million 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Presentation to the TPB CAC Acknowledgments Program Manager: Bob Griffiths Travel model development and overview: Ron Milone and Jim Hogan Network development: Bob Snead, John Bethea, Wanda Hamlin, Joe Davis, Bill Bacon Mapping and technical support: Meseret Seifu, Don McAuslan Travel modeling: Mark Moran 4/14/05 Presentation to the TPB CAC

Thank you Questions?