Russia in the East Asian Context

4 of the world’s 10 most populous countries China: 1,286 bln. (No.1) USA: 290 mln. (No.3) Russia: 145 mln. (No.7) Japan: 127 mln. (No.10)

GDP, PPP, US$: USA – 10.5 trln. China – 6 trln. Japan – 3.6 trln. Russia – 1.4 trln.

Data for 2001

Four Great Powers 2 maritime – Japan, US 2 continental – China, Russia  Maritime as challengers  Continental as status-quo 20 th century - 2 communist, 2 capitalist 3 of the 4 (Japan, Russia, China) underwent repeated rapid modernizations in the past 150 years Japan fought the 3 others, ultimately lost Russia-China-US: have been both competitors and allies The 2 withdrawals of Russia’s power Economics and security The legacy of wars:  The absence of a peace treaty between Russia and Japan  The unresolved Korean problems  The problem of Taiwan

CHINA The former (and future?) regional superpower The long decline of China Imperialist expansion in East Asia  Russia  Britain  US  Germany  Japan

The 20 th century:  Clashes of empires: Russia-Japan, Japan-US, Japan-Britain  The 2 communist revolutions:  Russia, 1917  China, 1949 China’s revival:  Revolution  Independence  Modernization  Balance of power strategies  Potential regional hegemony, based primarily on economic power

RUSSIA The easy expansion to the Pacific (17 th -20 th centuries) Trade over security Taking advantage of China’s decline The fatal clash with Japan, The communist transformation (modernization, security, ideology, geopolitics) Alliance with China (since the 1920s) Support of Chinese Communists WW2: Alliance with the US and China against Japan Cold War: Alliance with China against US and Japan 1950s: the apex of Russia’s influence in the region 1960s-1970s: conflict with China, detente with the US Late 1970s-1980s: US and China contain Russia Late 1980s-2000s: Russia turns inward, exits geopolitical competition, improves relations with US, China, Japan, undergoes transition crisis

What explains the ebb and flow of Russia’s power?

JAPAN The Meiji Revolution Emergence from isolation Modernization The 1905 victory and the rise of imperialism The 1945 defeat and post-imperial modernization The Cold War alliance with the US Economic competition with the US Geopolitical uncertainties Interests in China and Russia Security concerns

USA Manifest Destiny and Open Door: Pacific expansion, economic and military tools Collusion and collision with Japan The alliance with Russia against Japan The apex of American power: 1945 The Communist challenge The defeat in Vietnam The US-China alignment against Russia The Japanese economic challenge The end of the Cold War: new US hegemony, East Asian counterbalances The Chinese challenge to US

6 bilateral relationships: patterns and trends Russia-China USA-Japan Russia-USA Russia-Japan USA-China China-Japan Assess each relationship in each of the 3 areas on a scale from +5 (highly cooperative) to -5 (highly competitive)

SECURITY threats, military potentials, nature of cooperation ECONOMY resources, markets, capitals IDEOLOGY role of the state in society and economy China-Russia China-US China-Japan Russia-US Russia-Japan Japan-US

For each country, it is important:  Not to allow a hostile combination of the others  To maintain good relations with the 3 others Competition vs. cooperation  Sources of competition  Factors for cooperation